Saturday, October 17, 2009

Losing hurts more than winning feels great

Well, where do I begin.

When Bo Pelini took over as Nebraska football’s head coach, we knew there would be losses. In a few cases bad losses were going to happen. There was the 52-17 loss to Missouri in Game Five last season at home. There was also the 62-28 loss at Oklahoma in Game Nine. Both opponents entered those respective games No. 4.

The common denominator in those games was that Nebraska had very little of any chance of winning those contests. The Huskers were still finding their way under Pelini. Both Missouri and Oklahoma were juggernauts at the time Nebraska faced those teams.

The most recent loss, however – 31-10 to the unranked Texas Tech Red Raiders at home? This has to be the low point in Pelini’s brief tenure as head coach. Make no mistake, I still believe that Pelini is the right guy to lead the Huskers back to prominence but Saturday’s loss flatout sucks for the following reasons:

 On offense, Nebraska has had seven crappy quarters out of their last eight. The Huskers scored 27 points in a come-from-behind 27-12 win over Missouri and only 10 points in a 31-10 loss Saturday against Texas – seven in garbage time. Against two mediocre defenses!

 Defensively, the Huskers held an always potent Texas Tech offense to 24 points. Keep in mind, Red Raider linebacker Daniel Martin scored on an 82-yard fumble return when Nebraska quarterback Zac Lee threw a backward lateral to wide receiver Niles Paul that the latter dropped with nary a defender within five yards.

 Nebraska also recorded five quarterback sacks and held the Red Raider offense to 62 yards (258 for the game) of total offense and seven points in the second half and still could not capitalize on that rare ineptitude.

So here we have Nebraska, 4-2 after six games. Not expected per se but the Huskers will face a crossroads with Iowa State at home and Baylor on the road. The former beat the latter 24-10 in Ames, Iowa on Saturday. The Huskers should win both games.

Of course there’s also the whole matter of starting quarterback Zac Lee, a junior, getting yanked in favor of Cody Green, a freshman. Keep in mind, some zealots have been calling for such a move but if the offensive line is not providing holes for running backs or pass protection for quarterbacks, you can put Joe Montana back there and it won’t matter.

So what needs to happen offensively?

We need to make changes and just pick an offense, going back to the days of Tom Osborne is not going to happen and would not be productive with the talent we have. Let's take this for what it was -- a letdown and loss. I am upset and disgusted like everyone else, but we can't take a step back and run to TO. These coaches will get it figured out.

Craig James during ABC’s broadcast made a comment that I liked, Pelini has the defense heading in the right direction -- now they just need to figure out how the offense can support them.

I say, what a difference a couple years makes! A couple of years ago our defense was on the sideline with their heads down and no hope of being great. Now we just need to find a middle ground with an offense to score points for our defense.

Let’s face it, “It hurts more to lose than it feels great to win.”

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Was Texas Tech that good or did K-State really stink that bad?

Nebraska football heads into its second straight game that presents a psychological hurdle.

The Huskers cleared the first on Thursday night with a 27-12 come-from-behind win at Missouri, which had beaten Nebraska four of the last six times including a combined 93-23 score the previous two meetings. Going into the contest, one had the feeling the Huskers were better than Missou this year but Thursday’s win was a psychological hurdle.

With Texas Tech you have the same dynamic. I believe the Huskers currently have the better team but the Red Raiders, who have beaten Nebraska the last three times. First there was the 70-10 debacle in Lubbock in 2004. Then, there were two hard luck losses – 34-31 in 2005 in Lincoln and 37-31 in overtime last season in Lubbock.

With the Huskers having Saturday vacant from games, I got to asking myself after the Red Raiders pummeled Kansas State 66-14 -- is K-State that bad or is Texas Tech much better than we thought? Fair question considering the Red Raiders lost a handful of players from last year’s 11-2 team including quarterback Graham Harrell and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.

One thing is for sure about Red Raiders head coach Mike Leach, he’s a goofy SOB but he knows how to develop offensive talent. Texas Tech is 4-2 after Saturday’s win with backup quarterback Steven Sheffield filling in for an injured Taylor Potts (concussion. All Sheffield did was complete 33-of-41 passes for 490 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception.

Insane.

Nebraska is a six-point favorite but make no mistake, this should be a challenging contest.

Back up QB was outstanding. It should be a good and challenging game. To answer the earlier question of is Texas Tech better than we thought or does Kansas State really suck that bad? Well, a little of both. The Red Raiders are football’s version of a fast break offense. You have to make it a half court game because if the game is at the Red Raiders break-neck speed tempo, they are hell on wheels.

However, Kansas State is terrible. Let’s face it, the Wildcats barely beat Iowa State 24-23 and lost 17-15 to a Louisiana –Lafayette team that Nebraska whitewashed 55-0. So the truth must lie somewhere in the middle.

So I am not sure what we learned about Texas Tech. It is hard to get a read on Tech since they played some real cupcakes early on but the Red Raiders also battled gamely before losing to No. 2 Texas 34-24 in Austin earlier this season.

What concerns me about Texas Tech is the way they play run defense, ranking 28th in the nation in rush defense but have also had trouble in allowing teams to convert too many third downs.

The Huskers are coming off a highly emotional comeback win under adverse conditions and a lot of people across the country are starting to say really good things about our team. Texas Tech is a quality opponent with an unusual style of ball.

Second-year Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini and staff, however, have done a fantastic job of having the Huskers team move on from one game to the next. I just feel like this week may be a big challenge in that area.

The next game will tell us a lot about how the rest of the year's going to go.

Texas Tech, however, is not likely to sneak up on Nebraska based on scoring 66 against K-State. True, K-State is a sorry ass teams, but 66 is 66. If they had won say 38-12, we might have fallen asleep. Not now.

I do believe that Nebraska has the ability to beat just about anyone on the remaining schedule. On the other hand, I don't think the Huskers are so good that they could not be beaten by any of those teams either.

One observation I will make is that the evidence before us so far is that NU has closed the gap between themselves and other ranked teams. (exhibit 1 – Virginia Tech; exhibit 2 - Missouri).

Next week we will see whether this evidence was misleading or whether it is a sign of a positive trend.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

So how good are the Huskers?

It felt strange for the second Saturday in a row to be a Nebraska football fan.

On Saturday Oct. 3, the Huskers were enjoying a bye entering a game on the ensuing Thursday night on ESPN at Missouri. Two days after rallying for a 27-12 come-from-behind victory over the hated Tigers, the Huskers enjoyed a Saturday free of games seven days before yet another of which figures to be a “swing game” in Lincoln against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who hammered Kansas State 66-14 with starting quarterback Taylor Potts sitting out with a concussion.

The Red Raiders have won the last three head-to-head meetings against Nebraska. There was the 70-10 debacle in Lubbock in 2004 and two heartbreaking losses (34-31 in 2005 and 37-31 in overtime in 2008).

The Huskers are 4-1 at the present time and entered Thursday’s game rated No. 21 in the AP poll. How much will the Huskers climb in the polls this week? No. 17 Auburn lost 44-23 to unranked Arkansas on the road. No. 3 Alabama pounded No. 20 Mississippi 22-3. Losing to the Crimson Tide is no disgrace but that is two losses for the Rebels to Nebraska’s one. Perhaps Nebraska gains a spot or two anyhow.

My question about Nebraska now is how good is this team, which has fashioned a 14-5 record under second-year head coach Bo Pelini? That’s something I’m still trying to read, however, I can already sense Pelini's MO will be that his teams will grow and get better as the season goes along -- and that will be a trend.

And if this team gets better (and it should) I now wonder -- what exactly is the ceiling this season?

Keep in mind, the Huskers outplayed No. 5 Virginia Tech in its building only to lose 16-15. Nebraska is much better than Missouri but despite the crucial road win Thursday the Big 12 North title path is not totally clear. No. 16 Kansas, where the Huskers visit on Nov. 14, might have something to say about who wins the division title.

No. 15 Oklahoma State and No. 19 Oklahoma would probably be favored to beat Nebraska if the two teams met. Well, the Huskers host OU on Nov. 7. The Sooners defeated Baylor on Saturday 33-7 in a game in which Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Sam Bradford returned from a collar bone injury. However, even with Bradford’s return, OU has flaws that it did not have last season.

As things stand now, I think Nebraska is no lower than the third best team in the Big 12 and Top 15 nationally. Well, with a few breaks perhaps Top 10. That said, the Huskers are flawed enough to lose a game or two.

Nebraska has a legit chance at running the table and playing Texas for the Big 12 title with OU and TTech coming to Lincoln. That’s not to say it will happen but it definitely can.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Husker resolve a thing of beauty

So what got into the Huskers in the fourth quarter?

I will probably wonder for days. Thursday’s 27-12 come-from-behind win over the Missouri Tigers was like exorcising a demon considering that Missouri had won four of the last six head-to-head meetings over Nebraska, mostly in dominating fashion with two 35-point wins the last two years (41-6 in 2007 and 52-17 in 2008).

Honestly, Nebraska won because they are the better team. Is this a landmark win or a signature win? Well, too early to say. We have to see where Missouri, which entered the contest rated No. 24 in the Associated Press poll behind Nebraska’s No. 21 rating, finishes the season. However, psychologically this is a huge win for the Huskers considering the Tigers recent dominance.

Next Saturday’s game at home against Texas Tech is big for the same reason. The Red Raiders have won the last three meetings. First there was the 70-10 debacle in 2004 and next there were two hard luck losses (34-31 in 2005 and 37-31 in 2008).

Granted, Thursday’s game was played in crappy conditions – wet field and it was raining for much of the night. This is also a huge win because two years ago when Nebraska endured loss after loss, mostly in convincing fashion, as fans we kept saying how we wanted a team that played with effort and resolve. Well, effort and resolve don’t always mean style points but those two elements give a team a chance to pull a game out of the fire when things go against them.

Nebraska trailed 12-0 entering the fourth quarter, looking like it had no chance to win. Sure, the defense was outstanding. The tackling was much more secure. The pressure was on Blaine Gabbert all night. However, the Nebraska offense couldn’t move the ball six feet. Next thing you know, two touchdown passes from Zac Lee to Niles Paul. One more to Mike McNeill. Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead salt the game away with timely runs.

This game also showed exactly why athletic director Tom Osborne hired Bo Pelini to be Nebraska’s head coach. Offenses have become all the rage in the Big XII. Pelini is a defensive minded coach. The Huskers were playing lifeless football, especially on defense. They needed a guy like Pelini to light a fire in them.

You know the old phrase, “Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.” With the way rules have been made to favor offenses, that theory is not quite as true as previous times but let’s not kid ourselves, defense still matters.

The current Husker defense might not totally remind us of the days of yore just yet but any defense that allows just 40 points through five games is definitely doing something right. While the conditions were raw, Nebraska stifled an offense that can still score in Missouri.

We saw a defense that beat the crap out of Missouri. Those teams in the 90's played like they were mad. As Jason Peter said in his book and .I'm paraphrasing "Peyton Manning was a good guy but I wanted to hurt him."

Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong seemed the same way. There were a couple times he could have just wrangled Gabbert to the ground. On the play were Gabbert got hurt he seemed to be giving him a little extra -- not dirty just trying to throw him around. Gabbert is lucky his leg didn't get snapped. On the bogus horse collar play he ended up coming down fully on top of Gabbert. And then on another pass play...a short pass he absolutely destroyed the receiver.

I don’t know that I’d quite call this a signature win. That would be a Big XII title game or BCS bowl game.

Nonetheless, thanks to a punishing defense, this win is a huge step in the right direction.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Nebraska primed to reverse recent trend vs. Mizzu

Say this for second-year Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini – he’s got his players trained.

The No. 21 Huskers enjoyed 12 days to prepare for Thursday’s pivotal Big 12 North matchup at No. 24 Missouri. The Tigers also have not played a game in 12 days so call the layoff a wash.

To a man last week, Husker players and coaches took the route of, “We’re not thinking about Missouri.” This week, Nebraska seems to be taking the, “It’s another game” approach but let’s not kid ourselves these teams do not like each other.

In Missouri’s case, the hatred is based on jealousy and envy. In Nebraska’s case, the hatred is based on Missouri’s “Johnny Come Lately” cockiness, a la Colorado and Kansas State in the late 1980s to early 1990s. True, Missouri has dominated the Huskers in each of the last two seasons, a 41-6 win in Columbia in 2007 and a 52-17 win in Lincoln in 2008.

Nebraska tried going the emotion route last year and it backfired so one can understand why Nebraska is taking a more grounded approach this season but make no mistake – Nebraska has a score to settle with the Tigers.

The Huskers recently gained a measure of respect in a 16-15 loss at No. 5 Virginia Tech considering the bloodlettings they have suffered in recent seasons against highly regarded opponents.

Missouri hammered Nebraska last season but these are two vastly different clubs now. The Tigers started 5-0 but finished 5-4. Missouri is 4-0 this season but has also struggled in recent wins over Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Nebraska went 3-3 in its first six games last season but 6-1 in its last seven and 3-1 so far in 2009 with three decisive wins and a narrow defeat at VaTech.

How Nebraska first-year starting quarterback Zac Lee handles his second road start will bear watching. Lee went 11-for-30 with two interceptions in the game at Virginia Tech. It stands to reason that Lee should play better now that he has experienced one of the tougher road environments in college football. Missouri might not make that list but their fans do have a hard edge when it comes to Nebraska. Make no mistake; the Huskers will have to battle through adversity to this key victory.

What should also hopefully help Lee is Nebraska’s commitment to the running game with Roy Helu as Missouri has struggled in slowing down the run, ranking 61st in the nation, mostly because the Tigers have not been sure tacklers. Since Nebraska has tried morphing into a power running game that approach might work to its advantage because the Tigers do no see a power run game in practice.

Even though Missouri lost a lot of skill position players from last season, the Tigers system is such now where they simply plug in players. However, Missouri struggles running the ball, ranking 60th in the nation in that category and while Gabbert’s feet are not nailed to the ground but he’s less likely to run than his predecessor, Chace Daniel.

This is the type of game that Pelini was hired for less than two years ago. Nebraska wants to become a physical team that is strong defensively in a time when Big XII teams are putting up basketball scoring numbers.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Dislike high for Missouri but it's still not quite a rivalry

Rivalry. It’s a term you hear so frequently in sports discussions.

By Wikipedia’s definition, a rivalry is described as “an intense competition between athletic teams or athletes. This pressure of competition is felt by players, coaches, and management, but is perhaps felt strongest by the fans.”

As sports fans, we all have our own idea of what the best rivalry is, whether it is Red Sox vs. Yankees, Michigan vs. Ohio State, Duke vs. North Carolina, Auburn vs. Alabama, Cowboys vs. Redskins.

I could go on without end.
With Nebraska’s important Thursday night road game at Missouri, some fans or media members have referred to the two teams as “rivals.” That list includes Omaha World-Herald columnist Tom Shatel, who is also a Missouri graduate: http://www.omaha.com/article/20091003/SPORTS/710049916
However, Shatel also added that the rivalry is largely based on potential. There are some elements of a rivalry. See Missouri’s upset win in 1978 and Matt Davison’s miracle catch in 1997 to keep the Huskers hopes for a National Title afloat.
One thing is for sure, neither fan base or program likes each other but passion alone, however, does not spark rivalries. If a rivalry is a bigger deal at one school than it is the other, then it’s not a rivalry. In Missouri’s case, the dislike is based on jealousy. In Nebraska’s case, it’s based on Missouri being cocky about nothing.

If one team dominates the other, it’s not a rivalry — one team is the hammer and the other is the nail. High school and college rivalries tend to be more untainted because the kids are at an impressionable stage of their lives.

Their eyes light up not only on game day but in the days leading up to the game.

Granted, a lifelong Raiders fan wouldn’t dare root for the Broncos or Chiefs.

A lifelong Giants fan wouldn’t dare root for the Dodgers. A lifelong Cowboys fan wouldn’t dare root for the Eagles.

A lifelong Red Sox fan wouldn’t dare root for the Yankees.

However, the excitement you see at the college level or in some cases high school cannot be duplicated in the pros because that level of sport has been polluted with lockouts, exorbitant salaries and steroid testing.

When I think of rivalry, I mostly think of a few things: a) There is definite polarization as in there’s no way in hell you could root for the other team, b) The game usually means something when the two teams play, and c) Fans will watch the game even if they don’t care about either team.

Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma and others fit that description. OK, sure, you can say Harvard-Yale but how many people are going to drop whatever they are doing to watch that game? Since I have lived much of my life in Northern California (save for four years while attending the University of Nebraska), I have found it also comical how Cal-Stanford is called “The Big Game.”

Sure, there was the game in 1982. After Stanford had taken a 20-19 lead on a field goal with four seconds left in the game, the Golden Bears used five lateral passes on the ensuing kickoff return to score the winning touchdown and earn a 25-20 victory. Members of the Stanford Band had come onto the field midway through the return, believing that the game was over, which added to the ensuing confusion. The game might be a rivalry but it is hardly big because unless you live in Northern California and have a rooting interest in either team, you’re not going to watch it.

For years, Nebraska was rivals with Oklahoma. The interesting thing is that OU has generally considered Texas its biggest rival but Nebraska-Oklahoma was the traditional game that took place the day after Thanksgiving. Plus, both teams were good at the same time for many years, combining for 12 National Championship (OU has seven, NU has five) and dominated the Big Eight conference, which has since expanded to the Big 12.

With that expansion, both teams play each other two years out of every four since Nebraska is in the Big 12 North and Oklahoma is in the Big 12 South. Since 1993, the two clubs have only share two good seasons (2001 and to a lesser extent 2006). OU suffered some fallow years from 1994-1998 before Bob Stoops arrived to resurrect the program. Nebraska suffered mostly subpar years from 2002-2007 but appears to be on its way back to prominence under Bo Pelini.

Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri have had elements of the notion “rivalry” with Nebraska the last 15 or so years as the meetings have been testy at times. Bill McCartney was known for “red lettering” Nebraska on the schedule but a segment of Husker fans even to this day do not consider it a rivalry.

I would sort of disagree with that notion. Since 1993, the two teams have met 17 times with Nebraska winning 12 games but six by a touchdown or less and eight by ten points or fewer. To take it a step further, did you see CU’s 62-36 blowout over the unbeaten Huskers in 2001 or NU’s 30-3 blowout in 2005 coming?

Kansas State made a tremendous turnaround under Bill Snyder (now back for his second stint after replacing Ron Prince). The Wildcats defeated Nebraska 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2004. However, it should also be pointed out that the only one of those Husker teams that finished in the top ten was the 2000 club that went 11-2. The 2004 and 2007 Huskers went 5-6 and 5-7 respectively and were the worst in post Bob Devaney history. The 2007 Nebraska team trounced the Wildcats 73-31.

Missouri has been mostly fair-to-middlin before having a breakout 12-2 season in 2007. The 2008 campaign came with a lot of hype and while 10-4 and Big 12 North title is not a failure per se, it was not the enormous success most envisioned. Missouri beat Nebraska in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008. Two of those wins were Bill Callahan teams (2005 and 2007) while the 2008 team had a lot of Callahan remnants. The timing of that game also came before Nebraska finished its season winning six of its final seven games.

As for Missouri, other than 1997, the Tigers were routinely hammered by the best of Nebraska. K-State was also routinely exposed by the best Nebraska teams as well.

Granted, getting blown out by the Huskers from 1993-1997 was hardly a disgrace but Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri’s success against Nebraska have almost as much to do with the Huskers fall as it does their rise.

Point being, of the three, Colorado is the closest thing to a rivalry because they have battled the Huskers close consistently when they were in their prime. Plus, the aforementioned 2001 game between the two teams sent Nebraska into a tailspin.

That said, I don't think Nebraska has a true rival. If they played Oklahoma every year like they did in the Big Eight, then I believe it'd be one of the best rivalry games in the country no matter if its one sided or not.The Huskers have had so much success over the years against the five other North teams, I don't consider them as a rival in the truest sense.

In a nutshell, the notion of “rivalry” is more applicable across the board in high school or college than it is on the pro level.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Sizing up the rest of the season in blackjack terms

Preseason predictions by game are always compelling if not conjecture. Well, I contributed to such a matter back in June: http://napavince.blogspot.com/2009/06/2009-nebraska-football-game-by-game.html

As I expected, Nebraska stands at 3-1, predicting relatively easy wins over Florida Atlantic (49-3), Arkansas State (38-9) and Louisiana-Lafayette (55-0) along with a close loss to Virginia Tech (16-15). Of course, who could have predicted the defeat at Virginia Tech to be of such heart-breaking proportions.

The Huskers enjoy a bye this week entering their Oct. 8 Thursday night ESPN telecast at Missouri. Faurot Field has been a house of horrors lately for Nebraska, which has given up 41 points in each of the last three head-to-head meetings in Columbia, Mo. And has not won their since 2001.

Excluding any Big 12 championship or bowl games, most people tabbed Nebraska as 8-4 on the low end and 10-2 on the high end. Our minds might change of course but we size up the Huskers remaining games and their chances for victory in blackjack terms:

Oct. 8 at Missouri:

Victory odds: No worse than even money.

The Tigers are 4-0 but it’s also a soft 4-0. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, everyone’s favorite in Nebraska for de-committing two years ago, has looked very good but the Tigers ground game and run defense are less than stellar. Mizzu also struggled to put away Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Whoever is favored will be a slight one.

Oct. 17 vs. Texas Tech

Victory odds: No worse even money.

The Red Raiders are not the juggernaut they were last season, and keep in mind Nebraska was a desperation Joe Ganz interception away from pulling off the upset in Lubbock in a 37-31 overtime loss. Texas Tech might not be offensive machine it normally is but they are still like a fast break basketball team that needs to be lured into a halfcourt game.

Oct. 24 vs. Iowa State

Victory odds: Blackjack

The Cyclones are 3-1 but got hammered 35-3 by instate rival Iowa, the only team Iowa State has played with a pulse. There’s a good chance the Cyclones won’t win a game the rest of the way. OK, at best they win one or two but don’t count on it happening in Lincoln.

Oct. 31 at Baylor

Victory odds: Blackjack

With quarterback Robert Griffin healthy, Nebraska had about a 65 percent to win. With Griffin on the shelf the rest of the season with a knee injury, the Huskers victory chances go up to about 85 percent. The Bears have been overmatched since entering the Big XII in 1996 but were viewed by some prognosticators as a “bowl eligible candidate but seriously, even with Griffin who else were they going to beat in Big XII besides Iowa State?

Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma

Victory odds: Likely dealer win

The Sooners have shown no shortage of resilience since falling 14-13 to BYU in a game that saw quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford sustain a broken collar-bone. OU has since rebounded to defeat Idaho State (64-0) and Tulsa (45-0) with backup Landry Jones at the helm. The Sooners will probably face a pretty pissed off Miami team. Keep in mind, the overhyped Hurricanes got taken to the woodshed with a 31-10 loss at Virginia Tech Saturday. Bradford might be back by the time OU comes to Lincoln but even without him, the Sooners will be tough to beat.

Nov. 14 at Kansas

Victory odds: No worse than even money

This game will have plenty of Big XII North implications. The Jayhawks are 4-0 and faced their first true test last week at home against Southern Mississippi. Kansas did not pass with flying colors but a 35-28 win against a good Conference USA team is nothing to scoff about. KU will be a tough out as long as Mark Mangino is the coach but Nebraska does have a talent advantage not to mention equal if not superior coaching with Bo Pelini.

Nov. 21 vs. Kansas State

Victory odds: Blackjack

The Wildcats are showing far greater signs of life in Bill Snyder the Sequel than they did under Ron Prince but let’s face it, this is a reclamation project. If K-State lost 73-31 to a down and out Nebraska team in 2007 what makes you think they’ll beat what figures to a Husker team that is getting better at this stage of the season.

Nov. 27 at Colorado

Victory odds: No worse than even money

I know most Husker fans are thinking this game is a slamdunk and that it’s not a rivalry. Unfortunately, the latter misses the point. Nebraska has won the majority of head-to-head contests but very few have been blowouts.

CONCLUSION

With Pelini’s coaching staff, Nebraska will occasionally win a game you don’t think it’ll win. They’ll rarely if ever loss a game that looks like a slamdunk to win. They’ll win no worse than half of their bubble games.

A 9-3 regular season looks like a pretty solid bet.