Saturday, October 17, 2009

Losing hurts more than winning feels great

Well, where do I begin.

When Bo Pelini took over as Nebraska football’s head coach, we knew there would be losses. In a few cases bad losses were going to happen. There was the 52-17 loss to Missouri in Game Five last season at home. There was also the 62-28 loss at Oklahoma in Game Nine. Both opponents entered those respective games No. 4.

The common denominator in those games was that Nebraska had very little of any chance of winning those contests. The Huskers were still finding their way under Pelini. Both Missouri and Oklahoma were juggernauts at the time Nebraska faced those teams.

The most recent loss, however – 31-10 to the unranked Texas Tech Red Raiders at home? This has to be the low point in Pelini’s brief tenure as head coach. Make no mistake, I still believe that Pelini is the right guy to lead the Huskers back to prominence but Saturday’s loss flatout sucks for the following reasons:

 On offense, Nebraska has had seven crappy quarters out of their last eight. The Huskers scored 27 points in a come-from-behind 27-12 win over Missouri and only 10 points in a 31-10 loss Saturday against Texas – seven in garbage time. Against two mediocre defenses!

 Defensively, the Huskers held an always potent Texas Tech offense to 24 points. Keep in mind, Red Raider linebacker Daniel Martin scored on an 82-yard fumble return when Nebraska quarterback Zac Lee threw a backward lateral to wide receiver Niles Paul that the latter dropped with nary a defender within five yards.

 Nebraska also recorded five quarterback sacks and held the Red Raider offense to 62 yards (258 for the game) of total offense and seven points in the second half and still could not capitalize on that rare ineptitude.

So here we have Nebraska, 4-2 after six games. Not expected per se but the Huskers will face a crossroads with Iowa State at home and Baylor on the road. The former beat the latter 24-10 in Ames, Iowa on Saturday. The Huskers should win both games.

Of course there’s also the whole matter of starting quarterback Zac Lee, a junior, getting yanked in favor of Cody Green, a freshman. Keep in mind, some zealots have been calling for such a move but if the offensive line is not providing holes for running backs or pass protection for quarterbacks, you can put Joe Montana back there and it won’t matter.

So what needs to happen offensively?

We need to make changes and just pick an offense, going back to the days of Tom Osborne is not going to happen and would not be productive with the talent we have. Let's take this for what it was -- a letdown and loss. I am upset and disgusted like everyone else, but we can't take a step back and run to TO. These coaches will get it figured out.

Craig James during ABC’s broadcast made a comment that I liked, Pelini has the defense heading in the right direction -- now they just need to figure out how the offense can support them.

I say, what a difference a couple years makes! A couple of years ago our defense was on the sideline with their heads down and no hope of being great. Now we just need to find a middle ground with an offense to score points for our defense.

Let’s face it, “It hurts more to lose than it feels great to win.”

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Was Texas Tech that good or did K-State really stink that bad?

Nebraska football heads into its second straight game that presents a psychological hurdle.

The Huskers cleared the first on Thursday night with a 27-12 come-from-behind win at Missouri, which had beaten Nebraska four of the last six times including a combined 93-23 score the previous two meetings. Going into the contest, one had the feeling the Huskers were better than Missou this year but Thursday’s win was a psychological hurdle.

With Texas Tech you have the same dynamic. I believe the Huskers currently have the better team but the Red Raiders, who have beaten Nebraska the last three times. First there was the 70-10 debacle in Lubbock in 2004. Then, there were two hard luck losses – 34-31 in 2005 in Lincoln and 37-31 in overtime last season in Lubbock.

With the Huskers having Saturday vacant from games, I got to asking myself after the Red Raiders pummeled Kansas State 66-14 -- is K-State that bad or is Texas Tech much better than we thought? Fair question considering the Red Raiders lost a handful of players from last year’s 11-2 team including quarterback Graham Harrell and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.

One thing is for sure about Red Raiders head coach Mike Leach, he’s a goofy SOB but he knows how to develop offensive talent. Texas Tech is 4-2 after Saturday’s win with backup quarterback Steven Sheffield filling in for an injured Taylor Potts (concussion. All Sheffield did was complete 33-of-41 passes for 490 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception.

Insane.

Nebraska is a six-point favorite but make no mistake, this should be a challenging contest.

Back up QB was outstanding. It should be a good and challenging game. To answer the earlier question of is Texas Tech better than we thought or does Kansas State really suck that bad? Well, a little of both. The Red Raiders are football’s version of a fast break offense. You have to make it a half court game because if the game is at the Red Raiders break-neck speed tempo, they are hell on wheels.

However, Kansas State is terrible. Let’s face it, the Wildcats barely beat Iowa State 24-23 and lost 17-15 to a Louisiana –Lafayette team that Nebraska whitewashed 55-0. So the truth must lie somewhere in the middle.

So I am not sure what we learned about Texas Tech. It is hard to get a read on Tech since they played some real cupcakes early on but the Red Raiders also battled gamely before losing to No. 2 Texas 34-24 in Austin earlier this season.

What concerns me about Texas Tech is the way they play run defense, ranking 28th in the nation in rush defense but have also had trouble in allowing teams to convert too many third downs.

The Huskers are coming off a highly emotional comeback win under adverse conditions and a lot of people across the country are starting to say really good things about our team. Texas Tech is a quality opponent with an unusual style of ball.

Second-year Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini and staff, however, have done a fantastic job of having the Huskers team move on from one game to the next. I just feel like this week may be a big challenge in that area.

The next game will tell us a lot about how the rest of the year's going to go.

Texas Tech, however, is not likely to sneak up on Nebraska based on scoring 66 against K-State. True, K-State is a sorry ass teams, but 66 is 66. If they had won say 38-12, we might have fallen asleep. Not now.

I do believe that Nebraska has the ability to beat just about anyone on the remaining schedule. On the other hand, I don't think the Huskers are so good that they could not be beaten by any of those teams either.

One observation I will make is that the evidence before us so far is that NU has closed the gap between themselves and other ranked teams. (exhibit 1 – Virginia Tech; exhibit 2 - Missouri).

Next week we will see whether this evidence was misleading or whether it is a sign of a positive trend.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

So how good are the Huskers?

It felt strange for the second Saturday in a row to be a Nebraska football fan.

On Saturday Oct. 3, the Huskers were enjoying a bye entering a game on the ensuing Thursday night on ESPN at Missouri. Two days after rallying for a 27-12 come-from-behind victory over the hated Tigers, the Huskers enjoyed a Saturday free of games seven days before yet another of which figures to be a “swing game” in Lincoln against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who hammered Kansas State 66-14 with starting quarterback Taylor Potts sitting out with a concussion.

The Red Raiders have won the last three head-to-head meetings against Nebraska. There was the 70-10 debacle in Lubbock in 2004 and two heartbreaking losses (34-31 in 2005 and 37-31 in overtime in 2008).

The Huskers are 4-1 at the present time and entered Thursday’s game rated No. 21 in the AP poll. How much will the Huskers climb in the polls this week? No. 17 Auburn lost 44-23 to unranked Arkansas on the road. No. 3 Alabama pounded No. 20 Mississippi 22-3. Losing to the Crimson Tide is no disgrace but that is two losses for the Rebels to Nebraska’s one. Perhaps Nebraska gains a spot or two anyhow.

My question about Nebraska now is how good is this team, which has fashioned a 14-5 record under second-year head coach Bo Pelini? That’s something I’m still trying to read, however, I can already sense Pelini's MO will be that his teams will grow and get better as the season goes along -- and that will be a trend.

And if this team gets better (and it should) I now wonder -- what exactly is the ceiling this season?

Keep in mind, the Huskers outplayed No. 5 Virginia Tech in its building only to lose 16-15. Nebraska is much better than Missouri but despite the crucial road win Thursday the Big 12 North title path is not totally clear. No. 16 Kansas, where the Huskers visit on Nov. 14, might have something to say about who wins the division title.

No. 15 Oklahoma State and No. 19 Oklahoma would probably be favored to beat Nebraska if the two teams met. Well, the Huskers host OU on Nov. 7. The Sooners defeated Baylor on Saturday 33-7 in a game in which Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Sam Bradford returned from a collar bone injury. However, even with Bradford’s return, OU has flaws that it did not have last season.

As things stand now, I think Nebraska is no lower than the third best team in the Big 12 and Top 15 nationally. Well, with a few breaks perhaps Top 10. That said, the Huskers are flawed enough to lose a game or two.

Nebraska has a legit chance at running the table and playing Texas for the Big 12 title with OU and TTech coming to Lincoln. That’s not to say it will happen but it definitely can.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Husker resolve a thing of beauty

So what got into the Huskers in the fourth quarter?

I will probably wonder for days. Thursday’s 27-12 come-from-behind win over the Missouri Tigers was like exorcising a demon considering that Missouri had won four of the last six head-to-head meetings over Nebraska, mostly in dominating fashion with two 35-point wins the last two years (41-6 in 2007 and 52-17 in 2008).

Honestly, Nebraska won because they are the better team. Is this a landmark win or a signature win? Well, too early to say. We have to see where Missouri, which entered the contest rated No. 24 in the Associated Press poll behind Nebraska’s No. 21 rating, finishes the season. However, psychologically this is a huge win for the Huskers considering the Tigers recent dominance.

Next Saturday’s game at home against Texas Tech is big for the same reason. The Red Raiders have won the last three meetings. First there was the 70-10 debacle in 2004 and next there were two hard luck losses (34-31 in 2005 and 37-31 in 2008).

Granted, Thursday’s game was played in crappy conditions – wet field and it was raining for much of the night. This is also a huge win because two years ago when Nebraska endured loss after loss, mostly in convincing fashion, as fans we kept saying how we wanted a team that played with effort and resolve. Well, effort and resolve don’t always mean style points but those two elements give a team a chance to pull a game out of the fire when things go against them.

Nebraska trailed 12-0 entering the fourth quarter, looking like it had no chance to win. Sure, the defense was outstanding. The tackling was much more secure. The pressure was on Blaine Gabbert all night. However, the Nebraska offense couldn’t move the ball six feet. Next thing you know, two touchdown passes from Zac Lee to Niles Paul. One more to Mike McNeill. Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead salt the game away with timely runs.

This game also showed exactly why athletic director Tom Osborne hired Bo Pelini to be Nebraska’s head coach. Offenses have become all the rage in the Big XII. Pelini is a defensive minded coach. The Huskers were playing lifeless football, especially on defense. They needed a guy like Pelini to light a fire in them.

You know the old phrase, “Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.” With the way rules have been made to favor offenses, that theory is not quite as true as previous times but let’s not kid ourselves, defense still matters.

The current Husker defense might not totally remind us of the days of yore just yet but any defense that allows just 40 points through five games is definitely doing something right. While the conditions were raw, Nebraska stifled an offense that can still score in Missouri.

We saw a defense that beat the crap out of Missouri. Those teams in the 90's played like they were mad. As Jason Peter said in his book and .I'm paraphrasing "Peyton Manning was a good guy but I wanted to hurt him."

Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong seemed the same way. There were a couple times he could have just wrangled Gabbert to the ground. On the play were Gabbert got hurt he seemed to be giving him a little extra -- not dirty just trying to throw him around. Gabbert is lucky his leg didn't get snapped. On the bogus horse collar play he ended up coming down fully on top of Gabbert. And then on another pass play...a short pass he absolutely destroyed the receiver.

I don’t know that I’d quite call this a signature win. That would be a Big XII title game or BCS bowl game.

Nonetheless, thanks to a punishing defense, this win is a huge step in the right direction.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Nebraska primed to reverse recent trend vs. Mizzu

Say this for second-year Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini – he’s got his players trained.

The No. 21 Huskers enjoyed 12 days to prepare for Thursday’s pivotal Big 12 North matchup at No. 24 Missouri. The Tigers also have not played a game in 12 days so call the layoff a wash.

To a man last week, Husker players and coaches took the route of, “We’re not thinking about Missouri.” This week, Nebraska seems to be taking the, “It’s another game” approach but let’s not kid ourselves these teams do not like each other.

In Missouri’s case, the hatred is based on jealousy and envy. In Nebraska’s case, the hatred is based on Missouri’s “Johnny Come Lately” cockiness, a la Colorado and Kansas State in the late 1980s to early 1990s. True, Missouri has dominated the Huskers in each of the last two seasons, a 41-6 win in Columbia in 2007 and a 52-17 win in Lincoln in 2008.

Nebraska tried going the emotion route last year and it backfired so one can understand why Nebraska is taking a more grounded approach this season but make no mistake – Nebraska has a score to settle with the Tigers.

The Huskers recently gained a measure of respect in a 16-15 loss at No. 5 Virginia Tech considering the bloodlettings they have suffered in recent seasons against highly regarded opponents.

Missouri hammered Nebraska last season but these are two vastly different clubs now. The Tigers started 5-0 but finished 5-4. Missouri is 4-0 this season but has also struggled in recent wins over Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Nebraska went 3-3 in its first six games last season but 6-1 in its last seven and 3-1 so far in 2009 with three decisive wins and a narrow defeat at VaTech.

How Nebraska first-year starting quarterback Zac Lee handles his second road start will bear watching. Lee went 11-for-30 with two interceptions in the game at Virginia Tech. It stands to reason that Lee should play better now that he has experienced one of the tougher road environments in college football. Missouri might not make that list but their fans do have a hard edge when it comes to Nebraska. Make no mistake; the Huskers will have to battle through adversity to this key victory.

What should also hopefully help Lee is Nebraska’s commitment to the running game with Roy Helu as Missouri has struggled in slowing down the run, ranking 61st in the nation, mostly because the Tigers have not been sure tacklers. Since Nebraska has tried morphing into a power running game that approach might work to its advantage because the Tigers do no see a power run game in practice.

Even though Missouri lost a lot of skill position players from last season, the Tigers system is such now where they simply plug in players. However, Missouri struggles running the ball, ranking 60th in the nation in that category and while Gabbert’s feet are not nailed to the ground but he’s less likely to run than his predecessor, Chace Daniel.

This is the type of game that Pelini was hired for less than two years ago. Nebraska wants to become a physical team that is strong defensively in a time when Big XII teams are putting up basketball scoring numbers.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Dislike high for Missouri but it's still not quite a rivalry

Rivalry. It’s a term you hear so frequently in sports discussions.

By Wikipedia’s definition, a rivalry is described as “an intense competition between athletic teams or athletes. This pressure of competition is felt by players, coaches, and management, but is perhaps felt strongest by the fans.”

As sports fans, we all have our own idea of what the best rivalry is, whether it is Red Sox vs. Yankees, Michigan vs. Ohio State, Duke vs. North Carolina, Auburn vs. Alabama, Cowboys vs. Redskins.

I could go on without end.
With Nebraska’s important Thursday night road game at Missouri, some fans or media members have referred to the two teams as “rivals.” That list includes Omaha World-Herald columnist Tom Shatel, who is also a Missouri graduate: http://www.omaha.com/article/20091003/SPORTS/710049916
However, Shatel also added that the rivalry is largely based on potential. There are some elements of a rivalry. See Missouri’s upset win in 1978 and Matt Davison’s miracle catch in 1997 to keep the Huskers hopes for a National Title afloat.
One thing is for sure, neither fan base or program likes each other but passion alone, however, does not spark rivalries. If a rivalry is a bigger deal at one school than it is the other, then it’s not a rivalry. In Missouri’s case, the dislike is based on jealousy. In Nebraska’s case, it’s based on Missouri being cocky about nothing.

If one team dominates the other, it’s not a rivalry — one team is the hammer and the other is the nail. High school and college rivalries tend to be more untainted because the kids are at an impressionable stage of their lives.

Their eyes light up not only on game day but in the days leading up to the game.

Granted, a lifelong Raiders fan wouldn’t dare root for the Broncos or Chiefs.

A lifelong Giants fan wouldn’t dare root for the Dodgers. A lifelong Cowboys fan wouldn’t dare root for the Eagles.

A lifelong Red Sox fan wouldn’t dare root for the Yankees.

However, the excitement you see at the college level or in some cases high school cannot be duplicated in the pros because that level of sport has been polluted with lockouts, exorbitant salaries and steroid testing.

When I think of rivalry, I mostly think of a few things: a) There is definite polarization as in there’s no way in hell you could root for the other team, b) The game usually means something when the two teams play, and c) Fans will watch the game even if they don’t care about either team.

Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma and others fit that description. OK, sure, you can say Harvard-Yale but how many people are going to drop whatever they are doing to watch that game? Since I have lived much of my life in Northern California (save for four years while attending the University of Nebraska), I have found it also comical how Cal-Stanford is called “The Big Game.”

Sure, there was the game in 1982. After Stanford had taken a 20-19 lead on a field goal with four seconds left in the game, the Golden Bears used five lateral passes on the ensuing kickoff return to score the winning touchdown and earn a 25-20 victory. Members of the Stanford Band had come onto the field midway through the return, believing that the game was over, which added to the ensuing confusion. The game might be a rivalry but it is hardly big because unless you live in Northern California and have a rooting interest in either team, you’re not going to watch it.

For years, Nebraska was rivals with Oklahoma. The interesting thing is that OU has generally considered Texas its biggest rival but Nebraska-Oklahoma was the traditional game that took place the day after Thanksgiving. Plus, both teams were good at the same time for many years, combining for 12 National Championship (OU has seven, NU has five) and dominated the Big Eight conference, which has since expanded to the Big 12.

With that expansion, both teams play each other two years out of every four since Nebraska is in the Big 12 North and Oklahoma is in the Big 12 South. Since 1993, the two clubs have only share two good seasons (2001 and to a lesser extent 2006). OU suffered some fallow years from 1994-1998 before Bob Stoops arrived to resurrect the program. Nebraska suffered mostly subpar years from 2002-2007 but appears to be on its way back to prominence under Bo Pelini.

Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri have had elements of the notion “rivalry” with Nebraska the last 15 or so years as the meetings have been testy at times. Bill McCartney was known for “red lettering” Nebraska on the schedule but a segment of Husker fans even to this day do not consider it a rivalry.

I would sort of disagree with that notion. Since 1993, the two teams have met 17 times with Nebraska winning 12 games but six by a touchdown or less and eight by ten points or fewer. To take it a step further, did you see CU’s 62-36 blowout over the unbeaten Huskers in 2001 or NU’s 30-3 blowout in 2005 coming?

Kansas State made a tremendous turnaround under Bill Snyder (now back for his second stint after replacing Ron Prince). The Wildcats defeated Nebraska 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2004. However, it should also be pointed out that the only one of those Husker teams that finished in the top ten was the 2000 club that went 11-2. The 2004 and 2007 Huskers went 5-6 and 5-7 respectively and were the worst in post Bob Devaney history. The 2007 Nebraska team trounced the Wildcats 73-31.

Missouri has been mostly fair-to-middlin before having a breakout 12-2 season in 2007. The 2008 campaign came with a lot of hype and while 10-4 and Big 12 North title is not a failure per se, it was not the enormous success most envisioned. Missouri beat Nebraska in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008. Two of those wins were Bill Callahan teams (2005 and 2007) while the 2008 team had a lot of Callahan remnants. The timing of that game also came before Nebraska finished its season winning six of its final seven games.

As for Missouri, other than 1997, the Tigers were routinely hammered by the best of Nebraska. K-State was also routinely exposed by the best Nebraska teams as well.

Granted, getting blown out by the Huskers from 1993-1997 was hardly a disgrace but Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri’s success against Nebraska have almost as much to do with the Huskers fall as it does their rise.

Point being, of the three, Colorado is the closest thing to a rivalry because they have battled the Huskers close consistently when they were in their prime. Plus, the aforementioned 2001 game between the two teams sent Nebraska into a tailspin.

That said, I don't think Nebraska has a true rival. If they played Oklahoma every year like they did in the Big Eight, then I believe it'd be one of the best rivalry games in the country no matter if its one sided or not.The Huskers have had so much success over the years against the five other North teams, I don't consider them as a rival in the truest sense.

In a nutshell, the notion of “rivalry” is more applicable across the board in high school or college than it is on the pro level.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Sizing up the rest of the season in blackjack terms

Preseason predictions by game are always compelling if not conjecture. Well, I contributed to such a matter back in June: http://napavince.blogspot.com/2009/06/2009-nebraska-football-game-by-game.html

As I expected, Nebraska stands at 3-1, predicting relatively easy wins over Florida Atlantic (49-3), Arkansas State (38-9) and Louisiana-Lafayette (55-0) along with a close loss to Virginia Tech (16-15). Of course, who could have predicted the defeat at Virginia Tech to be of such heart-breaking proportions.

The Huskers enjoy a bye this week entering their Oct. 8 Thursday night ESPN telecast at Missouri. Faurot Field has been a house of horrors lately for Nebraska, which has given up 41 points in each of the last three head-to-head meetings in Columbia, Mo. And has not won their since 2001.

Excluding any Big 12 championship or bowl games, most people tabbed Nebraska as 8-4 on the low end and 10-2 on the high end. Our minds might change of course but we size up the Huskers remaining games and their chances for victory in blackjack terms:

Oct. 8 at Missouri:

Victory odds: No worse than even money.

The Tigers are 4-0 but it’s also a soft 4-0. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, everyone’s favorite in Nebraska for de-committing two years ago, has looked very good but the Tigers ground game and run defense are less than stellar. Mizzu also struggled to put away Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Whoever is favored will be a slight one.

Oct. 17 vs. Texas Tech

Victory odds: No worse even money.

The Red Raiders are not the juggernaut they were last season, and keep in mind Nebraska was a desperation Joe Ganz interception away from pulling off the upset in Lubbock in a 37-31 overtime loss. Texas Tech might not be offensive machine it normally is but they are still like a fast break basketball team that needs to be lured into a halfcourt game.

Oct. 24 vs. Iowa State

Victory odds: Blackjack

The Cyclones are 3-1 but got hammered 35-3 by instate rival Iowa, the only team Iowa State has played with a pulse. There’s a good chance the Cyclones won’t win a game the rest of the way. OK, at best they win one or two but don’t count on it happening in Lincoln.

Oct. 31 at Baylor

Victory odds: Blackjack

With quarterback Robert Griffin healthy, Nebraska had about a 65 percent to win. With Griffin on the shelf the rest of the season with a knee injury, the Huskers victory chances go up to about 85 percent. The Bears have been overmatched since entering the Big XII in 1996 but were viewed by some prognosticators as a “bowl eligible candidate but seriously, even with Griffin who else were they going to beat in Big XII besides Iowa State?

Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma

Victory odds: Likely dealer win

The Sooners have shown no shortage of resilience since falling 14-13 to BYU in a game that saw quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford sustain a broken collar-bone. OU has since rebounded to defeat Idaho State (64-0) and Tulsa (45-0) with backup Landry Jones at the helm. The Sooners will probably face a pretty pissed off Miami team. Keep in mind, the overhyped Hurricanes got taken to the woodshed with a 31-10 loss at Virginia Tech Saturday. Bradford might be back by the time OU comes to Lincoln but even without him, the Sooners will be tough to beat.

Nov. 14 at Kansas

Victory odds: No worse than even money

This game will have plenty of Big XII North implications. The Jayhawks are 4-0 and faced their first true test last week at home against Southern Mississippi. Kansas did not pass with flying colors but a 35-28 win against a good Conference USA team is nothing to scoff about. KU will be a tough out as long as Mark Mangino is the coach but Nebraska does have a talent advantage not to mention equal if not superior coaching with Bo Pelini.

Nov. 21 vs. Kansas State

Victory odds: Blackjack

The Wildcats are showing far greater signs of life in Bill Snyder the Sequel than they did under Ron Prince but let’s face it, this is a reclamation project. If K-State lost 73-31 to a down and out Nebraska team in 2007 what makes you think they’ll beat what figures to a Husker team that is getting better at this stage of the season.

Nov. 27 at Colorado

Victory odds: No worse than even money

I know most Husker fans are thinking this game is a slamdunk and that it’s not a rivalry. Unfortunately, the latter misses the point. Nebraska has won the majority of head-to-head contests but very few have been blowouts.

CONCLUSION

With Pelini’s coaching staff, Nebraska will occasionally win a game you don’t think it’ll win. They’ll rarely if ever loss a game that looks like a slamdunk to win. They’ll win no worse than half of their bubble games.

A 9-3 regular season looks like a pretty solid bet.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Will the North rise up?

Some conversations you can absolutely count on hearing. When it comes to Big XII football, you can definitely count on media members and/or message board posters to talk ad nauseam about the South division’s supremacy over the North.

It’s hard to argue against that idea now because since the conference was formed in 1996 since the South has won nine of the 14 Big XII championship games. The last time a North division team won it was 2003 (Kansas State).

However, the question that bears asking is will the pendulum swing back toward the North any time soon? Listening to some people you would think the answer was a resounding “never.” Unfortunately, those same people forget that when the conference was initially formed the North was the superior division. Nebraska was at its zenith in the midst of a 60-3 run with three National Championships in four seasons as well as four undefeated regular seasons in five years. Colorado and Kansas State also had outstanding teams in that stretch and if not for Nebraska, who’s to say they might not have won a National title? Of course, it wouldn’t be the same without Kansas State and Colorado fans living in the world of “if.”

In that same stretch, keep in mind that the South division teams that were strong now were not strong then. Oklahoma was pathetic. Texas was decent but far from what it is now. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State were so-so but not as prominently on the radar as they are now.

So will the balance of power ever shift back to the North? Some people seem convinced that it will never happen. Granted, the South already has a built-in leg up over the North in that you have two brand name programs (Texas and Oklahoma) while the North has one (Nebraska). It’s hard to imagine Kansas State being at that level any time soon. Kansas, Missouri and occasionally Colorado are solid. The one with the best chance of staying power might be Missouri because Columbia lies between two pretty fertile recruiting areas (Kansas City and St. Louis).

Because Texas and Oklahoma are in two fertile and highly coveted recruiting areas, most people seem convinced those programs will stay ahead of the pack. Unfortunately, what those same people forget is that Texas and Oklahoma have always had that recruiting advantage over Nebraska. Yes, that includes the years they both stunk. I just find it laughable how people only talk about those advantages when a team is good.

David McWilliams had the same recruiting advantage at Texas when he was the head coach from 1986-1991. What did that get him? A mediocre 31-26 record. His successor, John Mackovic had the same advantage from 1992-1997. What did that get him? A mediocre 41-28-1 record. Look at Oklahoma. John Blake had the same recruiting advantage from 1996-1998. What was his record? A most impressive 12-22.

Look at USC in a recruiting ground like Los Angeles. That’s about as fertile as it gets. That advantage got Paul Hackett a whopping 19-18 record from 1998-2000. It got Larry Smith a 44-25-3 record from 1987-1992 but not consistent success. Lest we forget it got Ted Tollner a pretty average 26-20 record from 1982-1986.

Granted, it’s hard to imagine Texas, Oklahoma or USC going in the tank barring NCAA sanctions, disastrous coaching changes or other bizarre acts of implosion.

Keep in mind, though, it wasn’t long ago that we could not have imagined Nebraska imploding but it happened. And if it can happen them it can happen now.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Griffin loss a huge blow to Baylor

Nebraska’s next two football opponents might be at Missouri (Oct. 8) and home for Texas Tech (Oct. 10) – two games that could say quite a bit about how the Huskers finish Year Two under head coach Bo Pelini.

However, it was hard not to notice the shockwaves coming out of Waco, Texas, on Sunday night where the Huskers visit Baylor for a matchup on Halloween. No pun intended but the news that emanated from Waco suddenly makes Nebraska’s trip there less scary.

Rivals.com, reported that Baylor sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin III and kick returner Mikail Baker will both miss the rest of the 2009 season due to season-ending knee injuries.

An MRI exam conducted Sunday afternoon revealed Griffin's right knee had an isolated tear in his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). The injury occurred during the first quarter of Baylor's 68-13 victory over Northwestern State on Saturday.

Baker, a senior defensive back and return specialist for the Bears, also suffered a season-ending injury during Saturday's contest with what an MRI revealed to be an ACL tear and a tear to his medial and lateral meniscus.

X-rays taken Sunday were negative on backup quarterback Blake Szymanski's shoulder, and an MRI revealed a contusion to his right shoulder. The status of Szymanski, who took a hit on a rush near the goal-line Saturday, is described as "day-to-day" by Baylor's training staff.

Suffice it to say, this is a huge blow to the Bears. As a true freshman in 2008, Griffin earned Big 12 Newcomer of the Year honors. Griffin guided the Bears, who have been enormously overmatched since joining the Big 12 in 1996, to a 4-8 record last season and were off to a 2-1 start this season. One of those defeats last season was a 32-20 setback to Nebraska in Lincoln.

Most Husker fans and media members viewed Baylor as a trap game as it comes one week before a home contest against Oklahoma, which is without its starting quarterback Sam Bradford (broken collar bone suffered in the season-opener). However, the Sooners have more than enough talent to get by most teams. Baylor, on the other hand, does not have that luxury.

With Griffin gone, the Huskers go from slight favorite to significant favorite. Personally, I was never one that thought Baylor was going to be a humungous challenge for Nebraska, but this will definitely make it easier. Keep in kind, the Huskers defeated Baylor with Griffon last season at a time in which Nebraska was still figuring out Pelini’s scheme. Not that the Huskers have perfected his scheme but having allowed just 28 points in four games would suggest they are on their way.

Make no mistake, Griffin is a phenom. I guess we'll find out how much of Baylor's success was due to Griffin, and how much of it was the talent around him. Something tells me it is the former.

Granted, these are not the helpless Bears that we knew in previous years but the threat that Baylor posed to Nebraska was always overstated in my opinion. Nebraska is a better football team. Period. And it's probably not that close. Yes, Griffin is a fine player and he may have had some highlights against the Huskers but unless Nebraska really its thumb up its butt it would not have lost to a Griffin led Baylor team.

True, Baylor is actually a decent team because of Griffin. Why Griffin went to Baylor rather than Texas or OU is beyond me. He would have been a Heisman candidate at one of those schools.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Bring on Mizzu, Texas Tech

OK, so the regular season is one-third in the books with No. 25 Nebraska shutting out Louisiana-Lafeyette 55-0 Saturday on a day that the Huskers sold out their 300th consecutive home game.

The Huskers are 3-1 and a one-point loss away from being 4-0. Any questions of Nebraska’s resilience were answered rather decisively. That is significant for two reasons. For starters, as great of a motivator as Bo Pelini is, it’s still easy to remember the Steve Pederson-Bill Callahan era where one bad loss tended to have a prolonged effect. Pelini’s forceful personality is such that he won’t allow any prolonged slides. Then again, perhaps we should know that by now.

As for Nebraska’s heartbreaking 16-15 loss to No. 11 Virginia Tech, some message board posters wondered if that loss might end up looking bad because the Hokies were 2-1 entering Saturday’s game against No. 9 Miami. Yes, that same Miami team that some mainstream media members (i.e. Lou Holtz) proclaimed as being “back.” Well, a funny thing happened today in Blackburg, Va. It’s called VaTech kicked Miami’s ass from one end of the field to the other in a 31-7 win for the Hokies.

Not to justify Nebraska’s loss, however, that defeat coupled with the Hokies win over Miami might even further illustrate that the Huskers are getting closer.

We will know much more after Oct. 17. For starters, Nebraska faces Missouri on the road for a Thursday night ESPN telecast followed by Texas Tech in Lincoln, Ne. on Oct. 17. When breaking down Nebraska’s preseason schedule, most eyes were on VaTech and Oklahoma. Well, Kansas drew a few eyes too. However, Mizzu and Texas Tech have note despite the fact that the Huskers are a combined 2-7 against those two teams.

That stretch has included defeats of embarrassing proportions such as a 70-10 loss to Texas Tech in 2004 in Lubbock, a 41-6 loss to Missouri in 2007 and 52-17 defeat to the Tigers in 2008.

It was generally assumed that the Huskers will continue their ascension in Pelini’s second year in 2009. Nebraska went 9-4 in Pelini’s first year and would appear to be a solid bet to at least match that record. Nebraska is 3-1 so far but its truest tests still remain.

It was also generally assumed that Texas Tech, which enjoyed an 11-2 season in 2008, would falter after losing numerous players including quarterback Graham Harrell and wide receiver Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders have already lost as many games as they did last season as they are 2-2 entering Saturday’s home game against New Mexico. However, Texas Tech’s two defeats have been by ten points or less – a 34-24 loss at No. 2 Texas and a 29-28 defeat at resurgent and No. 17 Houston.

It was also generally assumed that Missouri, which went 10-4 in 2008 and 12-2 in 2007 en route to winning Big 12 North titles, will slip after losing quarterback Chase Daniel, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Kauffman. The Tigers, meanwhile, are 4-0 and like the Huskers have 12 days to prepare for their aforementioned showdown in Columbia. The Tigers most recognizable win has come again a 1-2 Illinois team (37-9). Mizzu also escaped with a road win against Nevada (31-21) on Saturday.

Despite last year’s improvements – and to some degree this year, Nebraska is not good enough to be counting victories just yet. While every win is important, beating Texas Tech and Missouri would be psychological hurdles. Plus, despite those losses in personnel, Gary Pinkel (Missouri) and Mike Leach (Texas Tech) are two flawed but bright offensive minds as coaches.

With Texas Tech, most Husker fans still have the 2004 debacle fresh in their mind. However, Nebraska was a fumbled LeKevin Smith interception away from winning in a 34-31 loss in 2005 and a desparation Joe Ganz interception away from winning in a 37-31 overtime loss in 2008.

With Missouri, they creamed two teams coached by Callahan and another (the 2008 team) still had many Callahan remnants. They also lost to a 2002 Nebraska team that went 7-7 and a 2004 Husker club that went 5-6, making former defensive coordinators Craig Bohl and Kevin Cosgrove look like Charlie McBride.

In that respect, the next two games against Missouri and Texas Tech are similar to say the home game last season against Kansas. The Jayhawks obliterated Nebraska 76-39 in 2007 on the way to a 12-1 season. The Huskers won last year’s game 45-35 but outplayed the Jayhawks to a larger extent than the final score suggests. One KU touchdown came with the game out of reach in the fourth quarter and another was set by a Nate Swift muffed punt near the Huskers 25 yard line.

After the game, Lincoln Journal Star columnist Steve Sipple, whose work I respect greatly, referred to the game as a landmark win. I disagreed with that notion at the time and still do now because in going 8-5 in 2008, the Jayhawks (who beat Nebraska 40-15 in 2005 in Lawrence, Kansas) did not approach their 2007 success.

I viewed the 2008 Nebraska win as psychological not only based on the aforementioned defeats but Nebraska’s ugly 14-8 win in 2004 and its 32-25 overtime win in 2006 in which the Huskers let a 24-7 lead evaporate before prevailing.

Every win is big for the Huskers getting back to prominence but wins over Texas Tech and Missouri would be of the psychological kind.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Celebrating loyalty

300! It’s a good number that denotes a perfect game in bowling. It also represents an elite number for Major League Baseball pitchers as 24 in the history of the game have topped the 300 mark in career wins.

However, Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb., is not about bowling or baseball. It is a venue where fans will sell out the stadium for 300th consecutive game when The Nebraska Cornhuskers host the University of Louisiana-Lafeyette Ragin’-Cajuns.

While the Husker football program appears to be on its way back under second-year head coach Bo Pelini, many streaks have ended since 2001: Consecutive nine-win seasons (33), consecutive winning seasons (40), consecutive seasons of reaching a bowl game (33), consecutive wins over Kansas (36), Iowa State (12), Missouri (27) and Oklahoma State (41). The one streak, however, that has remained intact is the home sellout streak.

Yes, Nebraskans do “stick together in all kinds of weather” as the fight song goes.

I can just hear the elitists, notably on the West and East Coasts right now, “Well, what else is there to do in Nebraska besides eat corn and watch football?” Not that I would typecast everyone on either coast to be elitist but you get the idea.

I have one think to say to those people that espouse such a belief: “You don’t get it. You never have. You never will.” I don’t know if it is because they choose not to get it or are too stupid to get it. Part of the premise stems from the fact that there are no professional sports teams in Nebraska. Pretty weak argument in my mind.

To the state of Nebraska, the Huskers are their NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL team rolled into one — they wouldn’t want it any other way.

Sorry to break this to you but Nebraska has golf courses and movie theaters, just like everywhere else – and yes, that includes California. I ought to know that there are a percentage of those who believe that because I am a UNL grad from 1997 that has lived in Napa, CA, for 31 out of the 37 years I have been alive.

That’s what makes college football in Mid-America refreshing. There is nothing these folks would rather do. They enjoy the simple pleasures. True, they might not have beaches or a bustling night life, but to them, simpler is better. To take it a step further, a prime rib dinner at Misty’s means more than elegant dining.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Huskers did not deserve to win

OK, I am a blogger taking on the personality of our head coach.

There’s two things to point to in No. 19 Nebraska’s heartache of a 16-15 loss to No. 13 Virginia Tech. Well, let’s just say Nebraska went from jubilation to deflation like lickity-split.

For starters, there’s Virginia Tech wide receiver Danny Coale running past Nebraska safety Matt O’Hanlon. Coale caught the ball around the Husker 40-yard line before O’Hanlon hustled to tackle Coale at the 3. Unfortunately, two players later, the Hokies scored the go-ahead touchdown with 21-seconds left in the game.

The Nebraska defense that played so incredibly well throughout the game flat-lined. With VaTech taking over at its own 16, what on Earth is O’Hanlon doing letting a receiver get behind him?

Others would lament other missed opportunities by Nebraska – too many to list – over O’Hanlon taking an angle too flat while cornerback Anthony West appeared to have underneath coverage.

As for the missed opportunities:

-- Going 0-for-5 in the red zone in scoring touchdowns (5-for-6 in total scoring opportunities). Do that against a team that’s your equal or superior, you deserve to get beat.
-- There were four penalties (very legit ones at that) that take Nebraska from first-and-goal at the Hokies 6-yard line. First, Zac Lee’s touchdown to Mike McNeill is waved off for a holding penalty. One play later, Menelik Holt cannot maker a clean catch of Lee’s touchdown pass. Three penalties later, the Huskers are backed up and forced to punt at the 36.
-- There was Curenski Gilleylen running wide open down the right sideline that he has to reach for and fall out of bounds instead of running with so much open field even Mark Mangino could have scored.
In a nutshell, moral victories suck. If head coach Bo Pelini thinks so, then dammitt so should we!

OK, O’Hanlon getting beat deep and the offense faltering inside the red zone. Both are responsible for this loss. It’s not an “either/or” argument. You can’t mention one without the other.

I know the defense gave up a big play late, but this loss has to hang on the offense. Five field goals? It’s one thing to have to settle for a field every once in a while but when you have a top 25 opponent on the ropes you have to put them away. Especially when you are playing in their house, you know they are always going to make a game of it if you don't.

The most discouraging aspect of this loss is that special teams was the area most Husker fans, bloggers, message board posters, etc. feared given VaTech’s tendency to be superior. However, Nebraska played the Hokies even if not superior in special teams.

Granted, there was Dyrell Roberts’ 76-yard return on the opening kickoff that set up Ryan Williams’ touchdown but Niles Paul also gave Nebraska a 55-yard punt return to set up a field goal. Alex Henery also got off a 76-yard punt after a high snap. Adi Kunalac kickoff three touchbacks.

In a nutshell, very painful loss. I thought it was a great overall performance, especially by the defensive front seven, the offensive line and running back Roy Helu (28 carries, 169 yards). I don't fault offensive coordinator Shawn Watson for calling a more conservative game, on the road, with a young QB. However, I really wonder why we don't have a full house backfield for short yardage situations with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh lead blocking. The red zone is where you have to establish your physical dominance.

The Huskers are getting closer but still need to be better at closing time.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Huskers have what it takes to beat VaTech

Much has been said and written how Saturday’s game between No. 19 Nebraska at No. 14 Virginia Tech represents a moment of truth for both clubs.

Well, since this is a Nebraska blog, we will focus on the significance from the Huskers standpoint. The same two teams met last season in Lincoln, Neb. with the Hokies prevailing 35-30.

You’ve heard the horror stories of the Huskers road struggles in recent seasons.

Since the infamous Black Friday 62-36 loss at Colorado in 2001, the Huskers are 16-25 away from Memorial Stadium (neutral site games included) and 13-21 in non-neutral site games.

That stretch has included its share of decisive losses (two defeats by 40 or more points, six by 30 or more, 11 by 20 or more, and 16 by 10 or more). Very few of the 13 wins have come against quality foes. The Huskers scored come-from-behind wins at Texas A&M in 2002 (38-31) and 2006 (28-27).

Make no mistake, beating VaTech in its backyard would be vital and another sign that the Huskers are headed in the direction of being among the elite in college football.

Again, much has been said and written about things Nebraska needs to do in order to win this Saturday. While all of these things hold some kernel of truth for the Cornhuskers (no pun intended), there are two things this team needs to do in order to win this game, and other games as we go forward.

Just to set the scene, I work as a sports reporter for two small-town weeklies in Napa Valley, CA. One of the schools I covered had a coach named Ian MacMillan, who coached by the motto of “Love and Trust.”

When I think of this week’s Nebraska game, I think of Ian’s motto.

For this Nebraska team to gain that much coveted win against a solid Hokie team, first, the team needs to listen to and trust these coaches. I'm a bit biased, but I think Nebraska has assembled one of the better coaching staffs in the country. While I spent a good seven years wondering from week to week if Nebraska had a team that could "do it," I no longer do with Bo Pelini as the head coach. I have absolute faith in the coaching staff that they will come up with a game plan on both sides of the ball that is extremely capable of winning the game.

I also have complete faith, that if they meet adversity, these coaches are extremely capable of making necessary adjustments in order to win the game. This was something we rarely saw under both Frank Solich and Bill Callahan. I have complete faith in this coaching staff and I believe the players do as well. That is half the battle.

Secondly, and what would be the second part of that battle, is the players simply need to execute what the coaches tell them to do. How many times, no matter who the opponent, or what the game plan, you hear coaches say it was a matter of execution? I have complete faith, that given the nature of our staff and their ability to teach and communicate, that our players will come out Saturday and execute with precision, the plan that they have been given.

I honestly don't care what that plan is, as long as it is executed. Granted, the opponent has a game plan to execute as well but if our team has belief in its coaches, and takes the plan given to them and executes it, there's no doubt in my mind they can beat any team in the country on a given day.

Yes, Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va., is a tough environment. We can talk all we want about what the Nebraska offense, defense and special teams needs to do. The bottom line is, if the Huskers execute the plan, they will win the damn game.

I think some fans are still having Callahan era hangovers, and there is a tendency everything. I understand this and I was that way last year. However, I've come to the conclusion that Nebraska has a staff worthy of our faith and trust that they will deliver. This does not mean the Huskers will not lose games. It just means, that from week to week, given the talent and coaching staff, I think they are capable of winning every game they play.

I believe that Nebraska’s defense will be good enough, and execute well enough, to hold Virginia Tech to 17 points or thereabouts. Let us not forget, that the Huskers played very basic defensive packages in the first two weeks. I assure you that there will be more stunts and hidden agenda going on this weekend.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

We have a Phillip Dillard sighting

Phillip Dillard is off the milk carton – or so it would appear.

Dillard, who is a senior that has not played the first two games of the season, has been working with the No. 1 defensive unit at WILL linebacker as opposed to the MIKE position.

The big question after spring practices was would Dillard get out of the doghouse? Dillard came to Nebraska as one of Bill Callahan’s prized recruits from 2005 class. He saw sporadic action as a true freshman. Dillard gained a redshirt year in 2006 based on sustaining a season-ending injury in 2006. Dillard split time at middle linebacker with Corey McKeon in 2007 but got in with the good graces of Bo Pelini’s staff by losing 40 pounds. Dillard, however, missed the last four games of the regular season and played sparingly in the Gator Bowl.

It was generally assumed by many Husker fans that Dillard would be a starter (or at least in contention for a starting job) when healthy and emerge as a leader. In spring practice, however, Dillard slipped “down there” on the depth chart. At the time, neither Pelini or linebackers coach Mike Ekeler specified how far “down there.” As for why Dillard fell on the depth chart, Ekeler said: “There's some things that we ask. I'll just leave it at that.”

When I heard the most recent news on Dillard I was expecting something like he was leaving the program. One of the reasons for the emphasis on Dillard’s rise is because starters Blake Lawrence (ankle) and Matthew May (stinger) are currently less than full strength.

Even if he was overweight and slow, you'd think Dillard would find his way onto the field. Otherwise, why wouldn't he have just transferred out of Nebraska? I have a feeling that this is very good news for the defense and a nice little wrinkle to throw at Virginia Tech for Saturday’s much-anticipated road game.

I am overjoyed for Dillard and the team. He always seemed like a good kid, and was one of the few to play with passion and heart in 2007. He could really help with the run defense this week which is significant given that the Hokies pride themselves on being a physical running team.

What's being lost in all of this is that Dillard is practicing at the WILL position. That position requires more speed than the MIKE position, which is where Dillard played in the past.

Another thought is that Pelini saw something in film that leads them to believe that Dillard will have a positive impact in that position. He is a senior with 33 games under his belt. He has played some WILL linebacker in the past. He is not going to be intimidated by the atmosphere at Virginia Tech.

Dillard is known to bring a little fire to the game as well but what is so hard to understand? He seems to have done every thing the coaches asked. He has maintained a good attitude and seems to have worked very hard at getting to the weight the coaches wanted. It seems like a no brainer to me. The linebacker play against Arkansas State was not the greatest and for sure needs to be better because VaTech will be a true test.

Monday, September 14, 2009

VaTech game revealing for Nebraska but is it a "program changer?"

When Bo Pelini was hired to replace Bill Callahan as Nebraska’s football head coach, most people believed that he eventually would lead the Huskers out of the wilderness in short order.

He has.

In his first season, the Huskers went from 5-7 under Callahan in 2007 to 9-4 last season. The question was could he lead Nebraska back to national prominence, say like the run the program experienced from 1993-1997, when the Huskers went 60-3 with three national titles and four undefeated regular seasons? Well, runs like that don’t just fall out of the sky but with Pelini at the helm Nebraska appears capable of being a team that will consistently win nine or more games per season and every five years or so you get that special team that contends for a national title.

Anyhow, Saturday’s game at No. 14 Virginia Tech could be a launching pad for Nebraska, which enters the contest No. 19. I listened to “Unsportsmanlike Conduct,” which is an Omaha based sports talk show. Hosts Kevin Kugler and Mike’L Severe along with guest Steve Sipple (who is a Lincoln Journal Star columnist) even used the term “program changer” to describe a potential Nebraska win.

The Huskers, who lost to Virginia Tech 35-30 last season, enter Saturday’s contest as a 3.5-point underdog. Is Saturday’s game “make or break?” No. Is a “program changer” as these three gentlemen suggest? I would consider Saturday’s game vital considering Nebraska’s struggles in true road games in recent seasons.

Since the infamous Black Friday 62-36 loss at Colorado, the Huskers are 16-25 away from Memorial Stadium (neutral site games included) and 13-21 in non-neutral site games.

That stretch has included its share of decisive losses (two defeats by 40 or more points, six by 30 or more, 11 by 20 or more, and 16 by 10 or more). Very few of the 13 wins have come against quality foes. The Huskers scored come-from-behind wins at Texas A&M in 2002 (38-31) and 2006 (28-27).

Make no mistake, beating VaTech in its backyard would be vital because it would generate a message to recruits that Nebraska is relevant but I hesitate to say it’s a “program changing” game.

In 2005, Nebraska’s 30-3 win over Colorado in Boulder was a big win at the time in the Callahan era because it was shocking and unexpected but the fact that the win was part of a four-game losing skid by Colorado took some of the shine out of that win.

However, given the Huskers road struggles winning in Blacksburg, Va., which is never an easy task could change Nebraska’s perception because it’s a game very few people believe it will win.

I don’t necessarily buy the argument that a win makes people “talk about” the Huskers nationally because they do that whether they are good or bad. However, beating the Hokies would mean for people to talk about Nebraska for the right reasons.

Can they win? Definitely. I would consider VaTech a good but not great team.

The Hokies have been a pretty consistent program the last decade or so under head coach Frank Beamer. Virginia Tech has developed a reputation for being strong defensively and on special teams. The Hokies also pride themselves on being more physical than their opponents – something the Huskers prided themselves on for years too. VaTech will also have seven returning starters.

So how much will Nebraska’s game in Blacksburg, VA tell us? The feeling here is quite a bit.

If Nebraska wins, I think a 10-2 season is likely. A respectable loss (say 7-14 points), I think 9-3 becomes a realistic expectation. A blowout loss, which I don’t believe will happen, then I think matching last year’s 8-4 regular season becomes a battle.

The biggest key toward a Husker win is not allowing the Hokies to get a special teams or defensive touchdown. For that matter, don’t allow them to set up a score with their defense or special teams.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Sizing up Nebraska's chances at VaTech

Not long after Nebraska defeated Arkansas State 38-9 Saturday, the point of emphasis became that this Saturday’s trip to Blacksburg, Va. for a tussle with No. 14 Virginia Tech would be a game that could reveal and perhaps define how good Nebraska truly is.

So far, we know the Huskers can beat the teams they are supposed to beat, the way they are supposed to beat them. Despite what strength of schedule pundits say, that too is important. Virginia Tech, however, is a much different animal. The Hokies don’t win with style points but they always pack a punch.

Virginia Tech came into Lincoln, Neb., last season and prevailed for a 35-30 win over the Huskers. So far in 2009, Nebraska has beaten Florida Atlantic (49-3) and Arkansas State (38-9). The Hokies opened the season with a 34-24 loss to No. 4 Alabama at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta and hammered Marshall 52-10 one week later.

Losing to Alabama is no disgrace but the most telling thing is that the Crimson Tide outgained VaTech 498-155 in yards from scrimmage. The Hokies still had a punchers’ chance to win because of Dyrell Roberts’ 98 yard kickoff return. Special teams and defense has been the Hokies’ M.O. under head coach Frank Beamer. In last years in Lincoln, the Hokies special teams scored a safety and the defense set up a touchdown. Nebraska can’t afford such errors this week.

Virginia Tech is likely to enter the game as the favorite. How much? Hard to say, for the moment by about a touchdown. So, after two weeks, do you feel about the same as the Huskers chances of beating the Hokies as you did before the season? Worse? Or better?

From this corner, I’ll say about the same. VaTech should be the favorite because after all, Nebraska has had its share of implosions on the road against good teams. It will be interesting to see how quarterback Zac Lee responds. Lee has looked outstanding in his first two Div. I-A starts but doing so against Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State (at home no less) is one thing, doing so in a hornet’s nest like Blacksburg is another because the Hokies will bring the pressure.

I know it sounds cliché but he can avoid turnovers (well, the team as a whole too) in throwing and handling the ball, the Huskers will be there at the end. Something tells me Lee will be tested but play well. So far, I'm impressed with his accuracy and arm strength and I think he will be up to making a few plays with his feet.

Nebraska’s offensive line won’t draw up memories of the mid-1990s but it is better at this point than it was last season. They move well and there is depth. The run game is solid but not great. I don't expect that it will show up big in this game. Nice if it did but it probably won't (at least not this early in the year). That's why it is critical for Lee to take care of the ball.

Nebraska needs to play the field position game. The Hokies offense is not any better than last year but quarterback Tyrod Taylor will make some plays though as he is fast and will be feeling it with the crowd behind him. I do feel better about the secondary and overall defensive play.

Again, this is not a great offense they will be playing. They may be tested in the running game even without running back Darren Evans, but I think they can bend but not break often.

Special teams are a concern though. Will Nebraska tackle well? Will Alex Henery punt well? Will the Huskers get any sort of return (kind of doubt it as I see that as a big deficiency right now). Again, as cliché as it may sound, but Nebraska must not turn the ball over and make them have long drives, play solid special teams, limit penalties and win the time of possession/field position battle. If Nebraska does that, they have a chance. If not, we are looking at a VaTech win. Something tells me we are better prepared and somewhat sharper at this point this year though.

I am not worried about the pass rush, but I am worried about the pursuit. Again, Taylor will run. He is not going to throw if he doesn't have to and the tackling and pursuit was very poor.

Nebraska looks capable on both sides of the ball. I do not think the Huskers showed everything they can do on offense, nor do I think the defense was completely let loose. I have a good feeling about this team. I do not think Nebraska will win them all, but I think the Huskers will win 9 or 10 of them with next week being a possibility.

The Huskers don’t need a perfect game to win but execution needs to be sharp.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Huskers taking care of two teams they should an encouring sign

Two weeks of the college football season are in the books. Huskers 2, Opposition 0.

No huge surprise there as Nebraska was playing two foes Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State that it was expected to beat and did 49-3 and 38-9 respectively. The true test for how good Nebraska is at the present time will come Saturday when it visits Blacksburg, Va. for a battle against Virginia Tech, which entered today’s 52-10 win over Marshall rated No. 14. The Hokies, who lost 34-24 to No. 4 Alabama one week earlier, held off the Huskers 35-30 in Lincoln last season.

Again, the rubber will meet the road – more on that throughout the week. The first two victories on the surface might reveal very little about how good Nebraska is right now. However, I find it mildly annoying how people like to criticize the Huskers for playing two Sun Belt teams that are basically equal to a mid-level WAC or MAC team. Listening to some National media members and anti-Nebraska fans, you would think the Huskers were the only team to schedule such foes. Those people are a bunch of chumps! Those people are so stupid it takes them two hours to watch 60 minutes.

Anyhow, now that I’ve released that suppressed anger, one thing you must keep in mind is that during the past six years, Nebraska has played nonconference foes that it should have dominated only to scuffle for a win or even lose.

In 2002, the Huskers needed two DeJuan Groce punt returns for touchdowns to overcome Troy 31-16. In 2004, Nebraska gifted-wrapped 12 points in a 21-17 home loss to a Southern Mississippi team that didn’t even finish on the Top 25 radar.

In 2005, Nebraska struggled to 25-7 (Maine), 31-3 (Wake Forest) and 7-6 (Pittsburgh). Maine is a Div. I-AA team and not a very good at that but yet the Huskers clinged to a 15-7 lead in the fourth quarter before pulling away. The Wake Forest win was somewhat deceptive because keep in mind Nebraska scored three defensive touchdowns.

In 2007, Nebraska was a missed 55-yard field goal away from losing to Ball State of all teams before holding on for a 41-40 win. In 2008, Nebraska led San Jose State 14-12 early in the fourth quarter before pulling away for a 35-12 win.

Nebraska’s two decisive wins, however, will not decide how Saturday’s game in Blacksburg transpires. Nonetheless, it was important to allow second and third teamers the reps they need to develop.

More on VaTech later.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Arky State a potential landmine but Huskers should prevail

Collegefootballnews.com labeled last week’s Florida Atlantic game as a “lamdmine” contest. That term is often used in association with games where your team is likely favored but if not careful could wind up on the short end.

If anything, Nebraska’s 49-3 won over the Owls was fat from a trap game. Last season should show us that Saturday’s home game against Arkansas State has a much greater landmine potential than Florida Atlantic ever had, even though yours truly and many other prognosticators (mainstream message and message board posters alike) felt the game would be close for about a half.

Here’s the parallel I draw. Nebraska’s 49-3 season-opening win over the Owls versus the 2008 opener, a 47-23 win over Western Michigan. Most teams are going to be jacked up for night games – especially season-openers against a team you are expected to beat. Plus, the Huskers became a punching bag for the media, and rightfully so, after a 2007 season that saw the team go 5-7.

Nationally, the 2008 team was looking to unload on someone, Western Michigan just happened to be in the way. The 2009 team entered the season-opener simply looking to build on the momentum it generated from going 9-4 in head coach Bo Pelini’s season.

Nebraska’s Week Two opponent in 2008 (San Jose State) and 2009 (Arkansas State) are somewhat similar with a twist. The biggest difference is that the Arkansas State game precedes a crucial road game at No. 14 Virginia Tech, which edged the Huskers 35-30 in Lincoln last season.

Rewind to last year’s home game against San Jose State, where Nebraska entered as a heavy favorite and won 35-12. The Huskers held a slender 14-12 lead early in the fourth quarter before pulling away.

The other common denominator, San Jose State and Arkansas State are also day games followed by night games with a lot of emotion that is hard to top.

Part of that presents reason for concern but if there is one point of emphasis that is different is this: Pelini knows how to “coach in the moment.” Last season, he had to go out of his way to build up the team’s confidence that had been shattered. This year, it’s about keeping the team grounded.

Pelini is just the type of coach to say, “You’re not as good as you think you are,” or “You’re not good enough to take anyone lightly – ad that includes Arkansas State.”

Lee the man unless trouble hits

Don’t you find it mildly strange how the media is frequently ready to draw premature comparisons when a perceived young stud quarterback enters the picture?

Nebraska enters this week’s home game against Arkansas State fresh off a 49-3 season-opening win over Florida Atlantic. Making his first start on the Div. I-A level, Zac Lee completed 15-of-22 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Playing at No. 2 behind Lee (a junior) is true freshman Cody Green, who saw action late in the game, completing 2-of-3 passes for 18 yards. He also had an explosive 49-yard run.

Never mind that the run came in garbage time but both the Lincoln Journal Star: http://huskerextra.com/articles/2009/09/09/football/doc4aa70694e7889308066200.txt and Omaha World Herald: http://www.omaha.com/article/20090908/BIGRED/709089819 ran stories that featured Green. “Unpsportsmanlike Conduct,” which is an Omaha based sports talk show did two segments on the matter.

I didn’t necessarily have a problem with the way either story was presented. Plus, being a mainstream media member myself, I respect the job they have to do as far as filling sports pages and filling air time.

I just think it’s a little premature to feature Green not matter what his high school resume suggests.

My biggest issue comes on message boards, which in one respect has replaced going to the bar and having conversations. Well, not replaced per se, but an outlet nonetheless.

At any rate, various message board posters have posed the question throughout the offseason and even now that at what point does Green (a true freshman) start?

We’ve all heard the football axioms of how, “The most popular guy on the team is the backup quarterback,” and “If you have two capable middle linebackers it’s a competition but if you have two capable quarterbacks it is a controversy.”

The thing that really chaps me about the aforementioned Nebraska media, which does a very good job more often than not, and the message board postings is that yes Green showed his dynamic talent in his limited time – but it was in garbage time. Just like Lee’s snaps last season in relief of Joe Ganz and Patrick Witt. I can understand going gaga if say he came in to flash that ability with the game in the balance.

I’m not saying this to knock Green. He appears to be a talented young man but going gaga over him under the circumstances does him no good either.

Granted, Green won the No. 2 job in camp hut Lee is also familiar with the entire playbook (which has 320 plays) while Green admitted himself that he has only 15 plays that he feels comfortable with. Just doing the math, that’s 15 divided by 320. That’s not even five percent of the playbook, folks! Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson might not desire Bill Callahan like volume but he does not strike me as the type that will scale down the playbook.

Bottom line, barring injury, Green will not start at quarterback this year or maybe even next year.

I’m all for playing a freshman over a junior if he is a better athlete but quarterback is a much different animal. Yes, Tommie Frazier took over as the Huskers starting quarterback five games into 1992 – supplanting Mike Grant. Frazier went on to lead Nebraska to two National Championships. More recently, Terrelle Pryor took over as Ohio State’s starting quarterback as a true freshman and led the Buckeyes to the Fiesta Bowl. Vince Young started as a true freshman at Texas and led the Longhorns to two Rose Bowl wins, the second of which was a National title. Matt Barkley is USC’s starting signal-caller. This year’s Trojans have been considered “down” but they have enough talent to be 10-3 if they have a bad year.

The difference is this. Those teams had strong supporting casts. The current Nebraska team has a good but not great supporting cast.

Husker fans that truly know the sport understand that Lee will see about 90 percent of the snaps. Do you play Green in meaningful situations? Sure but do so with one of the 15 plays where he is comfortable and perhaps around the goal-line.

However, if Green is starting, it’s not a good sign for Nebraska because it means that Lee is either injured or ineffective and that the Huskers have opted to move forward.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Huskers show many positives in opener that will need to continue

Nebraska will certainly face more stringent tests throughout the 2009 than the one it faced in Saturday’s 49-3 season-opening route over the Florida Atlantic Owls.

The next game, which is Saturday’s home contest against Arkansas State, might not tell us any more before the rubber truly meets the road one week later on Sept. 19 when Nebraska visits Virginia Tech.

Arkansas State routed Mississippi Valley State 61-0 Saturday but keep in mind it has been 25 years since Jerry Rice suited up at the college game. Then again, Arkansas State went into College Station and upset Texas A&M 18-14 last season, sending the Aggies reeling to a 4-8 season. Plus, College Station is on par with Nebraska as far as tough environments for a visiting club. The Red Wolves lost 35-0 at Alabama, also a hostile environment, later that season.

One game does not a season make but we learned a few things from Saturday and still need to learn.

-- The good news was that the Blackshirts had far fewer assignment busts that plagued them at times last season and also made the Owls settle for a field goal after reaching the Husker 3-yard line. Not recording a sack was a bit disturbing but producing three takeaways was encouraging. Nebraska faced a strong quarterback-receiver combo against Florida State. Arkansas State, meanwhile, will try to be more physical. To be fair, Nebraska was pretty basic in its game-plan Saturday and probably will be this week too before unveiling a few wrinkles for VaTech.

-- The Nebraska offense seems to be in solid shape with Zac Lee at the controls. Lee complete 15-of-22 passes and very easily could have had three more completions if not for dropped passes. Lee looked a little tentative early, which is to be expected from someone making their first Div. I-A but otherwise showed veteran-like poise. However, the question becomes, will he maintain that poise if Nebraska finds itself in a tight game be in this Saturday’s home game or in a hostile road environment?

-- Running back Roy Helu, who carried 16 times for 152 yards and three touchdowns, looks like Lawrence Phillips – minus the disgraceful baggage of course. Another difference too is that Phillips played behind an offensive line that was so good he was often 10 yards into the secondary before even being touched. In Helu’s career, Nebraska has had some good individual linemen but chemistry among that unit is still a work in progress. Point being, Helu is a slasher and can get eight yards when there’s only four.

-- Nebraska’s depth seems a lot better than last season. So much so that the team can probably survive an injury in some spots. Not that we are wishing of course. Don’t be surprised if senior Phillip Dillard is a factor at some point. Dillard slid on the depth chart after falling out of favor with the coaching staff but appears to be back in the staff’s good graces. Nonetheless, since the Husker linebacking unit is chock full of redshirt freshmen and sophomores, those individuals might have bumpy roads at some point.


-- Last season, the Huskers were a largely experienced club in that numerous seniors play key roles, which could be a plus or minus. Plus, because they were experienced but a minus because they were coached a lot of bad habits by the previous coaching staff. This year, the Huskers seem to be taking on a youth movement in that only six seniors are playing significant roles. Again, that can be a plus or minus. The plus side is that the players have potential. The downside, young players will make mistakes you have to live with. Another plus, the coaching staff will groom them their way from the beginning.

-- Speaking of two of those young players, quarterback Cody Green and running back Rex Burkhead got plenty of snaps, most of which were after the Huskers gained control of the game. However, both flashed some serious ability. Could that mean snaps with the game in the balance in the future?

Again, many positives out of the first game, they’ll need to continue.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Smooth debut for Big Red

Burn this, Howard!

Florida Atlantic made some news just a few days before Saturday’s 49-3 loss to Nebraska. The Owls recently lit an over-sized Nebraska "N" on fire during a pep rally in Boca Raton.
Over 1,000 fans were at Florida Atlantic's pep rally, where head coach Howard Schnellenberger ignited the Nebraska "N.”

The event was video-taped and placed on the internet, which has reached Lincoln. Owls quarterback Rusty Smith even semi-joked how it took gasoline to burn the “N.” Hey Rusty, that’s what happens when you combine matches with gasoline. What chemistry class did you fail at Florida Atlantic?

Honesty, that event had nothing to do with Nebraska, which hosts Arkansas State Saturday Sept. 12, taking the Owls behind the woodshed.

The only thing surprising about Nebraska’s win was the smoothness of its performance. Since head coach Bo Pelini is a perfectionist, you can bet your next paycheck that he will find something to get the team’s attention. However, considering this was the first game of the season, the performance was pretty smooth – which is an encouraging sign for a team that made a few too many mental mistakes for Plini’s taste diring a 9-4 campaign in 2008.

Offensively, the Huskers took a “use the pass to set up the run” approach. Even with the passing game being more mainstream in football, an efficient ground-game is still vital. However, the tried and true “run to set up the pass” theory is outmoded.

In the first half quarterback Zac Lee was 10-of-15 for 153 yards for two touchdowns, finishing the contest 15-of-22 for 213 yards. The completion percentage would have been even better if not for a few dropped passes. Running back Roy Helu carried 16 times for 152 yards and three touchdowns despite not playing the last quarter and a half before giving way to true freshman Rex Burkhead. At halftime, Helu had 12 carries for 56 yards.

In a nutshell, you pass to get the lead, you run to seal the win. Lee was not asked to do a lot in his Div. I-A debut but he didn’t need to. However, at some point, the rubber will meet road.

Defensively, the Huskers faced an Owls team that has talent at both quarterback and receiver but it mattered none with little running game (FAU produced just 3.5 yards per carry). Plus, the Owls had no answer for Husker defensive tacle Ndamukong Suh. Then again, who does. It’s not just Suh’s seven tackles and one sack. It’s his relentless pursuit of ballcarriers downfield and the double-teams that he consumes.

Nebraska’s pressure was like a blast-furace early in the game before declining later as the Owls went to more max-protection looks. Even more encouraging was the solid play of the Huskers young linebackers and the fact that the defense produced three takeaways after getting just 17 last season. The tackling was also pretty sure as well.

The special teams performance was also encouraging after last year’s inconsistent efforts and Jared Crick came up huge with a blocked field goal.

IN A NUTSHELL

Very good performance for a first game. There were a few delay of game penalties and false starts but nothing too glaring. Keep in mind; the Huskers are breaking in a new quarterback.
The coaches kept the play-calling pretty simple considering the opponent. It’s not like the Owls are going to be in a January bowl game. Nonetheless, the team executed the game-plan it was asked to execute which is always encouraging.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Huskers to open with solid win

It’s here ladies and gentlemen. Gameday in Lincoln, Nebraska as the Huskers start Year Two of the Bo Pelini.

Nebraska took a step toward respectability in going from 5-7 in 2007 to 9-4 last season. The big issue now is building on last season’s success and continuing that forward momentum on Saturday in the season opener against Florida Atlantic.

There are plenty of things that stand out about this game. Owls quarterback Rusty Smith is being tabbed as one that has the ability to play in the NFL. The question is, will they be able to protect him? With Nebraska’s dominant defensive line, I think not. If the Owls opt to double-team defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, that opens it up for defensive end Pierre Allen and vice versa. If the double both, Jared Crick or Barry Turner will beat one-on-one blocks.

What about the linebackers and secondary? The Huskers have a ton of youth at linebacker which is significant because linebackers are asked to do a lot in Pelini’s scheme. However, Nebraska’s dominant defensive line will take pressure off both the linebackers and safety.

And what about the secondary forcing turnovers? Takeaways came by the bushel in 2003 when Pelini was the defensive coordinator as the Huskers produced 47 that season but only 17 in 2008. Reports from the Husker camp have been that the defensive backs have shown improvement on getting to the football, which is encouraging. And frankly necessary.

Turning to the offensive side, true freshman Cody Green is listed as No. 2 behind Zac Lee. Will he see action? Probably so but will it be by design early in the game, say the third or fourth series or if it’s a blowout?

Another thing I find compelling was that after the two-deep depth chart was released, the word “or” appeared 17 times. In one respect, that number shows that the team has many interchangeable parts, which is great but at some point roles need to be defined to prevent chaos.

Prediction: This game could either be close for a half before Nebraska wears down the Owls or the Huskers could get a big lead early and it’s an even game thereafter. Regardless, Nebraska wins 45-20.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Pelini goes to Rome -- well, Jim Rome

I honestly do not care to listen to sports talk show host Jim Rome but I actually found a reason to make an exception on Thursday.

He had Nebraska football head coach Bo Pelini on as his guest on “Jim Rome is Burning” just two days before the Huskers open their season at home against Florida Atlantic. Rome he hosts The Jim Rome Show and hosts the TV show Jim Rome Is Burning (formerly Rome Is Burning) which airs on ESPN. I personally have never cared for Rome’s brash personality. He often sounds like someone that has yet to reach puberty but that’s another story.

Pelini has also twice been on Rome’s radio program while athletic director Tom Osborne has been Rome’s guest once.

Rome and Pelini hit on a variety of topics:

1) “NU is competing for a Big 12 Championship.”

Getting to the Big 12 title game will be much easier than winning it because the South will theoretically always have a leg up on the North with Oklahoma and Texas being two brand name programs that are among the elite of college football. In the North, Nebraska is still a brand name program despite its struggles this decade and while last year’s 9-4 season was a step in the right direction, the Huskers are not yet the elite program they were for so many years. Nebraska has not beaten Texas since 1999 and Oklahoma since 2001. The Huskers losses to Texas have been mostly of the hard-luck variety. Three of Nebraska’s four defeats to the Longhorns this decade have been by seven points or less and that includes Husker teams that went 7-7 in 2002 and 5-7 in 2007. Nebraska has gone 1-5 against the Sooners in the 2000s with just one of those defeats being by less than 14 points.

2) “Zac Lee is a talanted athlete and leader who has the tools; he’s just inexperienced. He just needs to manage the game and play within himself.”

The term “manage the game” can be viewed as a slight in that it could mean the quarterback is not good enough to win it, just don’t screw it up. The truth of the matter is that Lee’s only Div. I-A experience has come in garbage time. Lee has the athletic measureables such as arm strength and athleticism. The most important things for Lee to show are a) Gaining respect of teammates, b) Make the right decisions and c) Handle adversity with poise.

3) “Players understand what is expected of them and they know expectations have increased.”

Since this is only Pelini’s second year, he is still going to deal with some collateral damage from the prior coaching regime. Players might have gotten used to doing things a certain way. With Pelini, there are no shortcuts to success.

4) “To win championships, you need to be able to run the ball and stop the run.”

With the passing game becoming increasing more mainstream, that argument is less true now. It mostly depends on who your quarterback is. If you have a great quarterback, you can get away with not having a star running game. However, college is also much different than the NFL in that the quarterback is an extension of the game. That said, there’s nothing that breaks a team’s will more than running the ball down their throat.

5) “The Big 12 compares favorably to the SEC.”

In one respect, the SEC’s reputation as a conference deep with strong teams is a bit overdone but there’s no denying that it is a collectively strong conference. However, the whole “best conference” debate is a subjective one. Some years, it’s the SEC. Others, it might be the Big 12. Some years, it’s the Pac-10. Others, it’s the Big Ten.

6) “The defense improved quite a bit from 2007 but was nowhere near where I want it to be. The Blackshirts are not there yet but I’m excited about our defense.”

To say Nebraska improved defensively would be like saying Dolly Parton has large breasts. The Huskers improved from No. 112 to No. 55. Nebraska definitely played with effort, which would count as progress but too many mental errors and assignments plaqued the team. There will be some this year too, it’s just a matter of reducing them. With Big 12 offenses producing basketball-like point totals, Nebraska might be hard-pressed to produce a Top Ten defense but a Top 25 seems reasonable.

7) “Pelini credits Tom Osborne for helping him understand the culture, tradition and fan base at Nebraska and how important football is to the entire state. He then says that former head coach Bill Callahan didn’t have that, pointing out that former athletic director Steve Pederson failed him in that regard.”

Callahan made more than his share of mistakes in his time as Nebraska’s head coach – too many to list. I find it intersting but not surprising that Pelini gave the impression of defending Callahan. Since the coaching profession is like it’s own fraternity, most coaches will generally take the high road on blasting other coaches. Yes, Callahan did himself very few favors but it should also be pointed out that Pederson did him none. Again, I’m not surprised that Pelini semi-defended Callahan but Pederson is fair game.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

What must happen for the Huskers to be relevant again

“Relevant” – it’s a term that Nebraska football fans have heard uttered so frequently but a word that could not really describe the program from 2002-2007 during a 44-32 span.

The Huskers took a quasi-step toward being significant on the national radar screen during a 9-4 campaign in 2008, Bo Pelini’s first as head coach. Most importantly, Nebraska won six of its last seven contests. However, the important thing is not so much the 9-4 record but sustaining – and enhancing -- that success. Like it or not, the past several years Nebraska has been a blip on the screen on college football’s national map. Even with the success in Pelini’s first season, Nebraska draws nothing more than a charity mention – and understandably so. After all, it has been a few years since the Huskers have had a win that makes people stand up and take notice. Plus, Nebraska’s performance in primetime televised games has generally been less than stellar – at best.Again, Nebraska took their first steps to gaining back relevancy in the Gator Bowl against Clemson in beating a Tiger club that was physically superior 26-21. The Huskers played well in a New Years day bowl and defeated a decent club who were trying to bounce back with a new coach (Dabo Swinney). However, in many peoples eyes, this still isn't enough to change the perception of Nebraska football as a team who can't be overlooked.

For all the good things Nebraska did a year ago, it is still not yet a team fears to play. So what does Nebraska need to do to change that perception?For starters, the Huskers cannot have any more blowout losses. Losing to a better team is one thing but getting your doors blown off and looking like you don’t belong on the same field as the other team is another. That means no games like last year’s 52-17 loss to Missouri or a 62-28 loss to Oklahoma. Preventing this from happening will hinge on how well our defense steps up. It doesn't matter how good your offense is, you can still get blown out if you don't have a great defense. If you do have a good defense, you shouldn't give up more than 28 points no matter who the opponent is.
The Huskers also need to re-establish ownership of the Big 12 North.

Nebraska also must beat a ranked club this year.

The opportunities are there.
Virginia Tech is the first. Now, I'm not hanging the season on a win or loss in Blacksburg, but at some point in the season we need to defeat a top 20 opponent, a top 15 would be even better.I think all of the above expectations are very reasonable this season. This isn't about win/loss record. It is about becoming a truly respectable football program again. One who plays hard week in and week out whether it be Iowa St. or Oklahoma. I think we have all the reason in the world to believe that with our talent level, good coaching and the strides we've already made, these goals are very attainable. I look forward to being back "on the map" next year in the eyes of the college football world. I think we will be.

If we control, what we “can” control, then we are at least 9-3. We were among the worst in the country in turnover margin, and penalties per game in 2008. If we get back at least to average in those departments, coupled with an improved defense, then we can expect 9-3. Some smart play, some good fortune, limited injury situation, solid special teams, and a fortunate fumble/pick/return and we can get to 10-2, we have to keep from beating ourselves.

Monday, August 31, 2009

Finally some football

Without further adieu, it’s time to start the college football season. In Lincoln, Neb., it starts at 6 p.m. local time against Florida Atlantic.

I never know for sure what to expect, especially in a season opener. I always caution that in August, pretty much everybody is full of optimism. The fact of the matter is, when the games are actually played, somebody's going to go away disappointed.Nebraska could, and probably should, win decisively but I would not be shocked if the Huskers are tested early in the contest. We have an unproven OL and an unproven QB. These are key question marks. FAU has a great talent at QB.For Nebraska, the rubber will truly meet the road on Sept. 19 when it visits Virginia Tech, which enters the season rated No. 7.

One thing we have to take into consideration is that this Nebraska team is a pretty young one. There are about 11 redshirt freshmen, 11 sophomore, and 16 juniors that will play key roles but as of now only about six seniors that figure to be starters. There will be some bugs to work out.

With the running back rotation, I see the top three guys as being Roy Helu, Rex Burkhead and probably Lester Ward with Marcus Mendoza being the situational back. Much will depend on the game situation but I see Helu getting about 20-25 carries with Burkhead (a true freshman) getting about 10-12.

The biggest concern for Nebraska on offense is definitely the line, which I think will at least be satisfactory. Individually, you have some pretty good players but it’s a matter of finding the right combination. Then, there’s the question of how does quarterback Zac Lee respond to adversity? Not just from a game score standpoint but how does he react the first time he gets hit? Then also, while there is talent at wide receiver, who becomes that No. 1 guy?

No worries at all for the tight end position with Mike McNeill figuring to be Lee’s go-to man but don’t be surprised if Dreu Young or Kyler Reed becomes a factor.

Defensively, Nebraska should be just as good if not better up front thanks to Ndamukong Suh opting to stay in school for his senior year. Suh will face his share of double-teams that will free up opportunities for guys like Barry Turner, Pierre Allen, Jared Crick and Cameron Meredith.

Allen is a definitely star but with Turner coming off a torn ACL, it’s doubtful he’s an all-Big 12 player but if he can be solid that would be a huge boost for Nebraska.

Linebacker and secondary should be an upgrade even with several new faces.

Florida Atlantic’s offense will test the Huskers from time-to-time. Rusty Smith is a legit quarterback. FAU has some size and speed at receiver and their head coach (Howard Schnellengberger) is a bright offensive mind). However, FAU has a suspect running game and Nebraska’s D-Line should dominate.

The Husker offense has some new faces but the good news is that so does FAU’s defense, which lost eight starters.

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Nebraska football can dominate again

Much of the offseason conversation of Nebraska’s quest for a rebirth is “when do we know the program is ‘back?’”

In a post earlier this summer, yours truly addressed what needs to be done before the program can claim such a status: http://napavince.blogspot.com/2009/07/at-what-point-is-nebraska-back.html

Going 9-4 in Bo Pelini’s first year is a good start but that progress needs to continue beginning with Saturday’s season opener against Florida Atlantic. The real question should be, will Nebraska ever “dominate” again? Keep in mind, from 1962-2001, Nebraska never failed to win fewer than nine games. From 1993-1997, the Huskers went 60-3 with four undefeated regular seasons and three National Championships. From 2002-2007, the Huskers were a mediocre 44-32. That’s a 57.8% winning clip if you are scoring at home. There were three non-winning seasons (2002, 2004, 2007) and two seasons without a bowl game (2004 and 2007). In 2002, the Huskers were 7-7.

The strong of 40 consecutive nine-win seasons and a five-year run of 60-3 are unheard of and not likely to be eclipsed any time soon. Sorry, USC fans, your 82-9 record with two National Titles this decade is great but 60-3 with three National crowns is better. The Huskers aforementioned run also trumps Miami’s record of 76-6 from 1986-1992 with three National Titles.

Anyhow, back to the original point. Nebraska could certainly use the much discussed “signature win” (i.e, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma or Texas) to provide a tangible sign that the program is “back.” Pelini’s arrival at Nebraska last year could not have been more timely.

For one, Pelini is a defensive minded coach in what has become an offensive-minded conference.
Anyhow, I think as evidenced by Nebraska’s run in the 90s, this program can absolutely return to competing for national titles. Maybe not on a year in and year out basis like they did during that period and like Texas and Oklahoma do now, but I truly believe that once every four years or so, this team can compete for a National Title. If a team has a transcendent player like say Tommie Frazier, Tim Tebow or Vince Young, sprinkle in some very solid 3 or 4-star recruits, and then try to find some diamonds in the rough. With good coaching and continuity on the staff, it can be done, even at Nebraska. Look no further than what has been built at Utah, who should have competed for two national titles in the last six years.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Looking back to my trip to Lincoln -- it's been a year already

Sometimes you have to take a look back. Last year at this time, I was just a father of one – soon to be a father of three as my wife and I were expecting twins to be born in November to go along with our oldest child, who was 1 ½ years old at the time. I had not been back to Lincoln in seven years.

I have spent 31 of the 37 years of my wife in Napa, CA. I attended the University of Nebraska from 1994-1997, earning my degree in Journalism. I stayed in Lincoln for a year after I graduated but things were not working out professionally so I decided to return home and essentially start over.

Little did I know, I would land a job at the Napa Valley Register. I worked as a sports writer for there for three years. I then moved on to the same job at an internet news in Benicia and Vallejo. After two years, they laid off the entire staff so I was out of a full-time job for eight months, during which time I made do as a pure freelancer. I landed back on my feet in January of 2004 as a sports writer/photographer for two weekly newspapers – the St. Helena Star and Weekly Calistogan, where I still am. I'm actually finding that I enjoy life as a small town weekly newspaper guy. I have more control to do things the way I see fit. Plus, big papers are cutting more jobs than they are adding. I also worked as a freelancer for an Oakland Raiders magazine from 1999-2005. I resigned just before the 2005 season because the company that owns the magazine was forgetting one small detail -- like paying me on time. Though I’ll always be grateful for the experience, I don’t miss covering the constant drama that goes on in that organization especially given how bad the team has become. I got married to a gal named Jacqueline Scioneaux, in August 2003. We also recently had a little girl (Juliette Scioneaux D'Adamo) who is now 2 1/2 years old and we just welcomed twins (Thomas and Danielle) into the world just seven months ago. Most days are great, others I’d like to jump off a bridge. We own a home here in Napa. I kind of have a like/dislike relationship with it. I dislike it because it's not the same Napa we knew growing up but I'd still be hardpressed to find a better place. Well, except on college football gameday.
Again, I had not been back to Lincoln in seven years, when my long-time friend and I came back for the season opener against TCU in 2001. I had always wanted to make it back to Lincoln for a game but various circumstances prevented me from doing such. Well, I went to the 2007 Cotton Bowl in Dallas, which was fun other than the outcome of the game, but it’s not the same as being in Lincoln.

With our now 10-month old twins keeping us busy, it’ll probably be a while before I make it back to Lincoln again. Anyhow, I took the liberty of writing about my trip back to Lincoln last year. I share this with you because it was before I established this recreational blog:

http://www.sthelenastar.com/articles/2008/09/04/sports/local/doc48bf61e8bc529666722997.txt