Monday, September 14, 2009

VaTech game revealing for Nebraska but is it a "program changer?"

When Bo Pelini was hired to replace Bill Callahan as Nebraska’s football head coach, most people believed that he eventually would lead the Huskers out of the wilderness in short order.

He has.

In his first season, the Huskers went from 5-7 under Callahan in 2007 to 9-4 last season. The question was could he lead Nebraska back to national prominence, say like the run the program experienced from 1993-1997, when the Huskers went 60-3 with three national titles and four undefeated regular seasons? Well, runs like that don’t just fall out of the sky but with Pelini at the helm Nebraska appears capable of being a team that will consistently win nine or more games per season and every five years or so you get that special team that contends for a national title.

Anyhow, Saturday’s game at No. 14 Virginia Tech could be a launching pad for Nebraska, which enters the contest No. 19. I listened to “Unsportsmanlike Conduct,” which is an Omaha based sports talk show. Hosts Kevin Kugler and Mike’L Severe along with guest Steve Sipple (who is a Lincoln Journal Star columnist) even used the term “program changer” to describe a potential Nebraska win.

The Huskers, who lost to Virginia Tech 35-30 last season, enter Saturday’s contest as a 3.5-point underdog. Is Saturday’s game “make or break?” No. Is a “program changer” as these three gentlemen suggest? I would consider Saturday’s game vital considering Nebraska’s struggles in true road games in recent seasons.

Since the infamous Black Friday 62-36 loss at Colorado, the Huskers are 16-25 away from Memorial Stadium (neutral site games included) and 13-21 in non-neutral site games.

That stretch has included its share of decisive losses (two defeats by 40 or more points, six by 30 or more, 11 by 20 or more, and 16 by 10 or more). Very few of the 13 wins have come against quality foes. The Huskers scored come-from-behind wins at Texas A&M in 2002 (38-31) and 2006 (28-27).

Make no mistake, beating VaTech in its backyard would be vital because it would generate a message to recruits that Nebraska is relevant but I hesitate to say it’s a “program changing” game.

In 2005, Nebraska’s 30-3 win over Colorado in Boulder was a big win at the time in the Callahan era because it was shocking and unexpected but the fact that the win was part of a four-game losing skid by Colorado took some of the shine out of that win.

However, given the Huskers road struggles winning in Blacksburg, Va., which is never an easy task could change Nebraska’s perception because it’s a game very few people believe it will win.

I don’t necessarily buy the argument that a win makes people “talk about” the Huskers nationally because they do that whether they are good or bad. However, beating the Hokies would mean for people to talk about Nebraska for the right reasons.

Can they win? Definitely. I would consider VaTech a good but not great team.

The Hokies have been a pretty consistent program the last decade or so under head coach Frank Beamer. Virginia Tech has developed a reputation for being strong defensively and on special teams. The Hokies also pride themselves on being more physical than their opponents – something the Huskers prided themselves on for years too. VaTech will also have seven returning starters.

So how much will Nebraska’s game in Blacksburg, VA tell us? The feeling here is quite a bit.

If Nebraska wins, I think a 10-2 season is likely. A respectable loss (say 7-14 points), I think 9-3 becomes a realistic expectation. A blowout loss, which I don’t believe will happen, then I think matching last year’s 8-4 regular season becomes a battle.

The biggest key toward a Husker win is not allowing the Hokies to get a special teams or defensive touchdown. For that matter, don’t allow them to set up a score with their defense or special teams.

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