Husker win more of a relief than a thrill

The term “big win” can often be overused and while No. 22 Nebraska’s come-from-behind 30-27 win over Wisconsin does not mean the Huskers are out of the woods, it gets them out of the frying pan at least for the moment.

Let’s face it, in Nebraska’s other “prove you’re for real” game this year, the Huskers whiffed on the road with a 36-30 loss at UCLA. Yes, Nebraska bounced back with wins over lesser foes (42-13 over Arkansas State ad 73-7 over Idaho State). Yes, Wisconsin is not the same outfit that won the Big Ten Conference last season but if the Huskers lost this game – forget the hits they would have taken in the national media. They would have taken a ton of hits from the local mainstream media, which despite head coach Bo Pelini’s uneasiness with constant attention is a pretty forgiving group. We’re not the Philadelphia Inquirer here.  

The game started about as inauspiciously for the Huskers as a game could, which makes the win that much more significant because under Pelini the team has generally responded well to adversity after a tough loss but within games when momentum goes South the Huskers have had a tough time recovering.

Most importantly, while Nebraska has many other hurdles, winning this game against a decent but still shaky Wisconsin club would have dented their path to a Big Ten title pretty severely. In a nutshell, the downside of a loss was greater than the upside of a win.

The first three Husker offensive possessions netted three fumbles and nary a first down. The Nebraska offense, however, stayed the course in gaining 440 yards of total offense (259 rushing, 181 passing). Quarterback Taylor Martinez went 17 of 29 for 181 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He underthrew a few too many passes but unlike last year’s 48-17 loss to the Badgers in Madison, he stayed within himself and did not force unnecessary throws. The Huskers also averaged 6.0 yards per rush against a Wisconsin club that entered the game 14^th against the run.

The problem, however, was that the Huskers had two turnovers that gave the Badgers the ball inside the Nebraska 30, setting up easy touchdowns. Without those miscues, Nebraska wins 30-14 but the truth of the matter is the Huskers made those mistakes, which need to be addressed.

Defensively, this game is a prime example of why the statistic “points against” is not always reflective of the defense. When you give an offense the ball after a turnover twice on the opponents’ side of the 30, there’s something wrong if they don’t score. That’s like a pitcher coming out of the bullpen with runners at second and third and less than two outs.

The Husker defense took more than its share of punches to the chin after the aforementioned loss to UCLA in which they gave up 653 yards, second most in school history. However, on Saturday, the Nebraska defense came up large. Granted, this matchup screamed “advantage Nebraska.” The Badgers no longer have Russell Wilson at quarterback, which means they are much easier to defend. Load the line of scrimmage to stop Montee Ball and dare immobile quarterbacks Joel Stave and Danny O’Brien to beat you.

The Huskers were equal to the task in allowing 56 yards rushing on 41 carries. Ball had 90 yards on 32 carries. As a team, Wisconsin gained 295 yards on 69 plays. The only criticism I have of Pelini as a defensive mind, where he is very bright, is that sometimes he tries so hard to outscheme opponents that the Huskers waste time outs and often do not get lined up properly rather than take the approach of “here we come, good luck stopping us.”

Special teams ended up being a key point of the game. Wisconsin’s Jack Russell missed an extra point, which meant the best the Badgers could do with a field goal on their last drive was to tie the game as opposed to take the lead. Stanley Jean-Bapiste’s bonehead roughing the kicker penalty on fourth-and-18 led to a Wisconsin touchdown. What was even more frustrating was that he took a bad angle. The pluses, however, outweighed the minuses with Ameer Abdullah’s 83 yard kickoff return. Brett Maher also had six touchbacks and averaged 46.7 yards per punt.

What does this mean? By the numbers, it just means Nebraska is 4-1 instead of 3-2. The Big Ten remains wide open as a trip to Columbus, Ohio, awaits against a flawed (gee there’s a common denominator in the Big Ten) but much improved Ohio State club. The Buckeyes went into East Lansing, Michigan, and beat a Michigan State club that some were touting the best in the Big Ten before the season.

Nebraska, however, cannot get behind 20-3 in the Horseshoe like it did against Wisconsin. Urban Meyer coached teams are not likely to blow such leads.  

 

Huskers need to take Step One to win Big Ten

No. 22 Nebraska and Wisconsin enter Saturday’s primetime telecast in Lincoln with 3-1 records but the public vibe around the former is more positive than regarding the latter.

 

Nebraska had what amounted to controlled scrimmage in a 73-7 win over Idaho State (an FCS school). Running back Rex Burkhead returned to the Husker lineup after not having played since the regular season opener because of a knee injury. 

Wisconsin beat UTEP 37-26 at home but running back Montee Ball, a Heisman Trophy finalist last season, left the game with a head injury. The Badgers trailed 6-2 after the first quarter but put up 21 second quarter points to lead 23-9 at halftime. UTEP did not go quietly, pulling to within four in the fourth quarter before Wisconsin put the game away.

The game is significant because it is the conference opener for both clubs. Last season, the Huskers were greeted rudely in the Big Ten debut in Madison, Wisc., as the Badgers blasted Nebraska 48-17. While both clubs are 3-1, Nebraska’s three wins have been decisive while Wisconsin’s have been by 11 points or less. Both clubs are looking to silence critics for different reasons.

The Nebraska rush offense against the Wisconsin rush defense is a strength vs. strength battle. The Husker offense is sixth in the nation in rushing yards per game while the Badger run defense ranks 14^th in rushing yards per game allowed. While teams should never get away from what they do well, Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez leads the Big Ten in passer efficiency. Could this be a game where “pass sets up run” more than “run sets up pass?” If Martinez can continue to be on target as he has been for much of the first four games with the exception of the second half of the Huskers 36-30 loss at UCLA, he can force the Badgers defense to respect the pass and open more space for Nebraska’s rushing attack.

While Ball has been cleared to play, with or without the Badgers star running back, Wisconsin has a dangerous running attack and considering Nebraska’s defense has been susceptible to the run in averaging 177 yards per game. Granted, that number is skewed in two ways (31 yards against Idaho State and 344 against UCLA) but when your defense averages 177 yards given up on the ground that is a serious indictment of one’s ability to stop the run.

Last season, Wisconsin’s offense beat Nebraska any which way it wanted with Ball gaining 151 of the team’s 231 yards rushing. On the passing side, Badger quarterback Russell Wilson went 14 of 20 for 255 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. The good news is that Wilson has a job that requires him to work on Sundays as the starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks.

The Badgers have had a tough time replacing Wilson. Danny O’Brien started the season but has since lost his job to Joel Stave, who went 12-17 for 210 yards against UTEP.

Wisconsin has been in turmoil this season, firing its offensive line coach and changing quarterbacks. The Badgers likely need this win, in some ways, more than Nebraska.

Further, the scenario sets up poorly for Nebraska. Wisconsin comes in as a 13-point underdog, which should be a good thing for the Huskers but in the Bo Pelini era, Nebraska’s has struggled when put in this position.

Ultimately, not having Wilson could be Wisconsin’s undoing in this game.

 

How do you contain a mobile QB?

It has been said very frequently throughout the years that Nebraska defenses have struggled with mobile quarterbacks.

The proof was certainly in the pudding last season. In a 48-17 loss to Wisconsin, Russell Wilson torched the Huskers in going 14-of-20 for two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 32 more yards on six carries. In a 34-27 come-from-behind win over Ohio State, Braxton Miller gave the Huskers fits before leaving the game with an ankle injury. Miller completed 5-of-8 passes for 95 yards and a score. He also ran for 91 yards on 10 more carries.

In a 28-25 upset loss to Northwestern, Kane Colter completed 4-of-6 for one touchdown and 15 yards. He ran for 57 yards on 17 carries and a score. In a 45-17 loss to Michigan, Dennard Robinson completed 11-of-18 passes for two touchdowns and an interception for 180 yards. He also ran for 83 yards on 23 carries and two touchdowns. Nebraska managed just five sacks combined against those mobile signal-callers.

Against the more classic, dropback quarterbacks, Nebraska had much more success. In a 24-3 win over Michigan State, Spartans quarterback Kirk Cousins completed just 11-of-24 passes for no touchdowns, one interception and 86 yards. He totaled zero yards rushing on six carries and was sacked four times.

In a 20-7 win over Iowa, Hawkeyes’ quarterback Jeff Vandenberg completed just 16-of-35 passes for 182 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. He was sacked just once but recorded just one yard rushing on one carry.

The question should be, what is the solution to slow down mobile quarterbacks? Some say use a defender as a “spy,” which means assign him specifically to the quarterback. I do not like that approach because it takes one defender away from everyone else.

Some would say, rush four, drop seven and make him “read” the defense. That approach is fine if you have a back seven with speed and can rely solely on your front four to bring pressure but how many defenses can do that? Plus, if you give any quarterback too much time to throw they will spot an open receiver at some point.

I believe in the approach of bring your front four (or three if you run a 3-4) but add one blitzer on every play. You may give up a big play every now and then, but getting in any quarterback’s head (especially a mobile one) is vital. If he is running for his life, he isn’t going through his reads.

However, they have to be delayed and disguised blitzes because straight blitzes will lead to open field for them to run through.

When I hear the term, “he is a mobile quarterback,” it usually means that he has success to some degree or another with most defenses. In the glory years of the 1990s, defensive coordinator Charlie McBride’s game plan was to attack the quarterback rather than just contain. I can remember many Defensive ends for Nebraska that got to the quarterback very quickly. He might dodge one, sometimes two rushers but often times he ducked right into the path of a runaway freight train. I remember many a quarterback back then who looked like he had gone through a meat grinder. Their heads were not totally focused at the task at hand.

It comes down to philosophies. McBride’s was old school aggression and Bo Pelini’s is all about outsmarting and confusion. At least that is how I see it.

Believe it or not, Huskers have a few edges on the Badgers

Much of the focus of Saturday's football matchup between No. 8 Nebraska and No. 7 Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium is centered around the historical significance of the Huskers making their Big Ten debut.


With the Big Ten now containing 12 teams, the conference has two divisions (Leaders and Legends). Most people favor Wisconsin to win the Leaders and Nebraska to win the Legends so this could be the first of two meetings if all goes according to plan.

Everyone from Las Vegas oddsmakers, media and message board posters have picked the Badgers to win Saturday's game. Wisconsin is a 10 point favorite as of late Thursday night.

Wisconsin's status as the favorite is understandable for three reasons: a) They are playing at home and Camp Randall Stadium is a notoriously hostile environment for visiting teams and b) the Badgers have beaten their first four opponents by a combined score of 204-34 and c) while Nebraska is 4-0 like Wisconsin they have outscored their opponents by a combined 171-88.



However, there are a few advantages that Nebraska has that very few people have taken into account.

At quarterback, Wisconsin would appear to have the edge with senior Russell Wilson over Nebraska sophomore Taylor Martinez. Wilson transfered from North Carolina State, where he played football and baseball and was the ACC Rookie of the Year. Wilson has been nothing short of spectacular in completing 69 of 91 passes for 1,136 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed 16 times for 108 yards and a score.

Martinez's passing numbers have not been spectacular as he has completed 43 of 85 tosses for 647 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. On the rushing side, he has 471 yards on 63 carries and seven touchdowns. Most importantly, his decision making and leadership, while not perfect, have improved.

While Wilson is more experienced and has the statistical advantage, in an odd sort of way, Martinez has an advantage because of his experience as starting quarterback in big games. Being the starting quarterback at Nebraska alone makes for a trial by fire because of the legacy the program has at that position such as Turner Gill, Tommie Frazier, Scott Frost and Eric Crouch. When you start as a freshman (especially quarterback) at Nebraska, you are instantly under a microscope.

Yes, Wilson shined at NC State but you simply cannot compare the pressure that a Wolfpack quarterback faces versus that of a Nebraska signal-caller. Being Wisconsin's starting QB comes with its challenges but for Wilson they haven't come in the first four games.

Martinez, meanwhile has played in four network-televised games against ranked opponents, with one being the Big 12 Conference Championship game last season.

Another edge that bodes well for Nebraska is that while the Badgers have bee very impressive on defense, the times opposing offenses have been successful is against Wisconsin's speed on the edge. Well, lack of would be a better description.

The Badgers will undoubtedly try to stack the line of scrimmage and dare Martinez to beat them with his arm. However, that does not mean that the Huskers will run the ball less. It will probably mean more sweeps, options and horizontal passes to make Wisconsin defend horizontally as well as vertically.

It also means we will likely see running back Rex Burkhead run more thann his share of Wildcat plays like last week against Wyoming.

Switching gears, while the Nebraska defense came in celebrated and hyped, the Huskers have been shockingly mediocre on that side of the ball. However, t should also be pointed out that defensive tackle Jared Crick, linebacker LaVonte David and cornerback Alfonzo Dennard have not been on the field at the same time all season. Crick sat out last week's 38-14 win over Wyoming with a concussion. Dennard returned to the lineup last week after nursing a quad injury for the first three games.

All three are expected to be in the lineup Saturday, which means Nebraska has playmakers at every level of its defense.

That means head coach Bo Pelini will not be as limited in how much of his scheme he can use. Therefore, he can throw more confusing looks with all three players in the lineup.

Entering Saturday's matchup, both Nebraska and Wisconsin have flaws

There is only one spot in the AP rankings that separates No. 8 Nebraska and No. 7 Wisconsin in Saturday's matchup at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. However, if you listen to oddsmakers, message board posters and selected media types, one would think the two programs are very far apart.


The Badgers have been installed as an 11-point favorite to beat Nebraska. Wisconsin's status as the favorite is understandable for three reasons: a) They are playing at home and Camp Randall Stadium is a notoriously hostile environment for visiting teams and b) the Badgers have beaten their first four opponents by a combined score of 204-34 and c) while Nebraska is 4-0 like Wisconsin they have outscored their opponents by a combined 171-88.

Not that I profess to being betting expert but part of the premise for establishing point spreads is not necessarily about who oddsmakers believe is going to win and which bet are people most likely to take. Common sense says Wisconsin for the above reasons.

Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates wrote a refreshing piece of journalism in his Sunday column. He pointed out that Wisconsin is 4-0, winning by 34, 35, 42 and 49 points "against a group of hand-picked opponents that fell far short of expectations.

Oates notes that UNLV is rebuilding, Oregon State is experiencing a rare down year, Northern Illinois was a disappointment and South Dakota was out of its league.

In his Sunday column, Oates asks a couple questions even Nebraska fans wonder about: So did UW pound on some patsies or is it as good as its lopsided scores would indicate? More important, were the Badgers tested enough to prepare them for the Cornhuskers?

"We've definitely played a lot of good teams so far, just nobody at the level of Nebraska," Badgers defensive tackle Patrick Butrym said. "We need to just pick up the way we're playing overall. Everybody deals with that coming out of the non-conference schedule. It just needs to happen. I think we're ready for that because we've done this before."

Oates also added that More from Oates "if there's cause for optimism, it is that UW dominated its opponents like it should have. The starters rarely played in the fourth quarter, but in the first three quarters the Badgers' scoring margin was a telling 166-20.

Still, just enough problems surfaced along the way -- not rushing well early in games, missing tackles on defense, forcing few turnovers, committing too many penalties -- that the Badgers know they'll have to improve to beat the Cornhuskers, who knocked off Wyoming 38-14 on Saturday to improve to 4-0.

At which point I would add let's evaluate the competition each team has faced. OK, both have faced a D-I AA team. Nebraska beat UT-Chatanooga 40-7 and Wisconsin beat South Dakota 59-10. As for the Div. I-A schools both have faced. Nebraska has beaten Fresno State (42-29), Washington (51-38) and Wyoming (38-14). Wisconsin defeated UNLV (51-17), Oregon State (35-0) and Northern Illinois (49-7). Let's also keep in perspective that Oregon State lost 29-28 to Div. I-AA Sacramento State at home. Wisconsin's opponents are a combined 5-10. Nebraska's foes are a combined 10-6.

The truth of the matter is point spreads, predictions, etc. are a lot of conjecture and hyperbole but while the Badgers are a talented team offensively, they are hard to read however as they've played four of the worst teams in college football. UNLV just got whipped by 27 points by Southern Utah. Northern Illinois is obviously a practice game for any major conference team. The level of competition goes way up this week and the Huskers having played better competition have scored 42,45,51 and 38 points while not even playing very well.

I don't think Nebraska's defensive line is as dominant as people thought in the preseason and the secondary is a youth problem. You can prepare and motivate, but if you don't have the horses, there is only so much you can do. I'm more concerned with the Husker offense as an unknown. The good news is that the offense has moved the ball the last two weeks without being as reliant on the big play. The problem is Nebraska has a quartterback in Taylor Martinez whose decision making has improved but is still a work-in-progress primarily because he is a sophomore.

As for Wisconsin's offense, it features a big and bulky offensive line. The Badgers line averages 6-foot-5, 325-pounds per man but I still mantain that Wisconsin is likely to try generating its yards by spreading the Huskers out as opposed to say two or three tight ends.

The big question mark is whether or not the Husker offense can move the ball against a good defense, and they haven't really played one yet. Generally, by the fifth game, a team knows its identity. Nebraska isn't going to pull a shut down secondary out of a hat, and the pressure the front four applies is harried and un-controlled and is the kind of thing mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson eat up with that inexperience in the secondary. If Nebraska wins, there will be a lot of patient defense, pocket-containing pressure, and a fourth quarter where the offense is toss-sweep right and toss-sweep left getting 6-7 yards a pop.



Nebraska's biggest advantage in this game is the fact that Wisconsin's starters have only played three quarters in each of their four games. Of course, that advantage won't matter if the Badgers are ahead by three touchdowns entering the fourth quarter but if its a close game or if Nebraska is ahead -- advantage Huskers because they are better conditioned.