Husker win more of a relief than a thrill

The term “big win” can often be overused and while No. 22 Nebraska’s come-from-behind 30-27 win over Wisconsin does not mean the Huskers are out of the woods, it gets them out of the frying pan at least for the moment.

Let’s face it, in Nebraska’s other “prove you’re for real” game this year, the Huskers whiffed on the road with a 36-30 loss at UCLA. Yes, Nebraska bounced back with wins over lesser foes (42-13 over Arkansas State ad 73-7 over Idaho State). Yes, Wisconsin is not the same outfit that won the Big Ten Conference last season but if the Huskers lost this game – forget the hits they would have taken in the national media. They would have taken a ton of hits from the local mainstream media, which despite head coach Bo Pelini’s uneasiness with constant attention is a pretty forgiving group. We’re not the Philadelphia Inquirer here.  

The game started about as inauspiciously for the Huskers as a game could, which makes the win that much more significant because under Pelini the team has generally responded well to adversity after a tough loss but within games when momentum goes South the Huskers have had a tough time recovering.

Most importantly, while Nebraska has many other hurdles, winning this game against a decent but still shaky Wisconsin club would have dented their path to a Big Ten title pretty severely. In a nutshell, the downside of a loss was greater than the upside of a win.

The first three Husker offensive possessions netted three fumbles and nary a first down. The Nebraska offense, however, stayed the course in gaining 440 yards of total offense (259 rushing, 181 passing). Quarterback Taylor Martinez went 17 of 29 for 181 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He underthrew a few too many passes but unlike last year’s 48-17 loss to the Badgers in Madison, he stayed within himself and did not force unnecessary throws. The Huskers also averaged 6.0 yards per rush against a Wisconsin club that entered the game 14^th against the run.

The problem, however, was that the Huskers had two turnovers that gave the Badgers the ball inside the Nebraska 30, setting up easy touchdowns. Without those miscues, Nebraska wins 30-14 but the truth of the matter is the Huskers made those mistakes, which need to be addressed.

Defensively, this game is a prime example of why the statistic “points against” is not always reflective of the defense. When you give an offense the ball after a turnover twice on the opponents’ side of the 30, there’s something wrong if they don’t score. That’s like a pitcher coming out of the bullpen with runners at second and third and less than two outs.

The Husker defense took more than its share of punches to the chin after the aforementioned loss to UCLA in which they gave up 653 yards, second most in school history. However, on Saturday, the Nebraska defense came up large. Granted, this matchup screamed “advantage Nebraska.” The Badgers no longer have Russell Wilson at quarterback, which means they are much easier to defend. Load the line of scrimmage to stop Montee Ball and dare immobile quarterbacks Joel Stave and Danny O’Brien to beat you.

The Huskers were equal to the task in allowing 56 yards rushing on 41 carries. Ball had 90 yards on 32 carries. As a team, Wisconsin gained 295 yards on 69 plays. The only criticism I have of Pelini as a defensive mind, where he is very bright, is that sometimes he tries so hard to outscheme opponents that the Huskers waste time outs and often do not get lined up properly rather than take the approach of “here we come, good luck stopping us.”

Special teams ended up being a key point of the game. Wisconsin’s Jack Russell missed an extra point, which meant the best the Badgers could do with a field goal on their last drive was to tie the game as opposed to take the lead. Stanley Jean-Bapiste’s bonehead roughing the kicker penalty on fourth-and-18 led to a Wisconsin touchdown. What was even more frustrating was that he took a bad angle. The pluses, however, outweighed the minuses with Ameer Abdullah’s 83 yard kickoff return. Brett Maher also had six touchbacks and averaged 46.7 yards per punt.

What does this mean? By the numbers, it just means Nebraska is 4-1 instead of 3-2. The Big Ten remains wide open as a trip to Columbus, Ohio, awaits against a flawed (gee there’s a common denominator in the Big Ten) but much improved Ohio State club. The Buckeyes went into East Lansing, Michigan, and beat a Michigan State club that some were touting the best in the Big Ten before the season.

Nebraska, however, cannot get behind 20-3 in the Horseshoe like it did against Wisconsin. Urban Meyer coached teams are not likely to blow such leads.  

 

No overstating importance of Saturday tilt with Wisconsin

The nonconference season is over, which means beginning this week, the rubber meets the road for the Nebraska football team beginning Saturday when the No. 22 ranked Huskers host Wisconsin.

Both clubs are 3-1, each losing to Pac 12 teams. Nebraska lost 36-30 to UCLA while the Badgers lost 10-7 at Oregon State, which defeated UCLA 27-20. Both clubs have three wins over lesser clubs. The Huskers, however, have won more decisively. Nebraska has wins over Southern Mississippi (49-20), Arkansas State (42-13) and Idaho State (73-7). Wisconsin has defeated Northern Iowa (26-21), Utah State (16-14) and UTEP (37-26).

The term “big game” can be an overstatement but for Nebraska the importance of this game simply cannot be overstated. The Huskers have visions and goals of winning their first conference title since 1999. Not beating a scuffling but maybe still decent Badger club at home would be a bad sign.

These two clubs met last season in Madison, Wisc., where the Badgers greeted Nebraska rudely in their Big Ten debut with a 48-17 shellacking on national television. This game will also be on national television with the Huskers looking to return the favor. While it is human nature to think about revenge, the Huskers also have to walk a thin line in not getting preoccupied so much that they lose sight of the task at hand.

Wisconsin is not nearly the team Nebraska played last year and the Huskers have a huge home field edge, so if all goes well, they could come out with a win. While winning this game is only Step #1 in the process of winning the Big Ten crown, a loss would hurt the season badly.

The only way the Huskers are going to re-establish their brand is to look good on some national telecasts against still competition. A big win over Idaho State was fun but it did nothing to re-establish us among the nation's college football elite. Unfortunately, Nebraska has laid a number of eggs on national TV lately. It's time to reverse that trend.

After four games we really don't know what Nebraska has. The Huskers pasted three bad teams and gave up 653 yards to a UCLA team that is probably an 8-4/9-3 type of club. There is no way Nebraska should lose this game simply based on what we've seen from Wisconsin so far. While the Huskers may have question marks you can at least look at them and say "well, there's a pretty good team."

This is the single most important game on Nebraska's schedule. You simply can't lose at home to a Wisconsin team that is nowhere near last year's level and then face going to Columbus, Ohio with a realistic chance of starting conference play at 0-2. No room for error the rest of the season if that were to happen.

The revenge aspect is overblown. It’s for fans and media to dwell on, but rarely has much to do with what actually happens on the field.

 

Steele predicts Huskers to go 8-0 in Big 10 and meet Purdue in title game

There are four kinds of Nebraska fans: 1) The Kool-Aid sippers, 2) The unless we have mid-1990s success, the season is a joke crowd, 3) The realists, and 4) The Debbie Downers.

Anyone who follows the preseason magazines knows that Phil Steele over the years has been the most accurate. As flawed as the Huskers have been, Steele predicts they will go undefeated in Big Ten competition and meet Purdue in the conference title game.  

The good news for Nebraska is that no other team in the conference has been setting the world ablaze. Purdue is flying under the radar right now and getting overlooked. They appear to have a really good team and a few folks in the media are starting to catch on to them.


http://www.philsteele.com/miscpages/...Standings.html

With Ohio State and Penn State both on NCAA probation, it was generally assumed that Wisconsin, which won the Big Ten conference last season, would have a clear path to the Leaders Division title. Though the Badgers are 2-1, it is a shaky 2-1 with close wins over Northern Iowa (26-21) and Utah State (16-14) to go along with a road loss at Oregon State (10-7). Purdue has been much more impressive in defeating Eastern Kentucky (48-6) and Eastern Michigan (54-16) to go along with a close loss to No. 22 Notre Dame (20-17). Keep in mind, Purdue hosts Wisconsin on Oct. 13.

Considering Ohio State and Penn state being on probation couple with Wisconsin looking vulnerable, 4-4 could win the Leaders.

As for Nebraska, the offense has looked much better, which bodes well because with the exception of Michigan State, none of the defenses look scary. On the offensive side, no one else other than Michigan or Ohio State is anything to write home about.

Before the season began, the Big Ten was viewed as a conference that did not have a dominant team like the SEC (Alabama or LSU), Big 12 (Oklahoma) or Pac 12 (USC or Oregon). Instead, the Big Ten was seen as a conference that had a bunch of good but not great clubs clustered together like Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska. Records aside, Wisconsin has performed significantly under what was expected. The rest have performed slightly under what was expected. Michigan’s 41-14 loss to Alabama may end up not being so bad, considering how the top-rated Crimson Tide is rolling. Everyone knew Michigan State’s offense would need to gain experience, and its defense is still very tough.

Nebraska was not expected to lose to UCLA (but that might be because UCLA is be better than expected) and its other opponents don’t give much to go on in evaluating Nebraska. Ohio State has won all three, but has struggled at times. Purdue has probably played better than expected.

The bottom line is I don’t think anything dramatic enough has happened yet to completely rewrite the pre-season expectations, especially to predict Nebraska, or any other team, to go undefeated in conference.

I think that 8-0 is possible, but that is more a function of the overall weakness of the conference this year. I think that the Huskers have a very good chance to take care of business at home this year, including against Michigan. Right now, Nebraska should be favored to beat Wisconsin. The Badgers have looked like a paper tiger so far and the Huskers are going to be fully motivated to pay them back for last year after losing 48-17 in Madison. Michigan is definitely a decent team, but the Alabama game shows that they still have vulnerabilities to exploit, particularly with a strong running game.

Before last weekend, I would have ranked Nebraska’s chances at OSU and MSU at south of 50% for both games. Having watched both games this weekend, I’d now say the Huskers have a 50/50 shot in both games. I will say that Notre Dame does look like a legitimate top ten team to me (much as it pains me to say it) so that MSU loss may look better as the season develops.

As winnable as every game appears to be, however, the Huskers tendency of inconsistent play makes them just as likely (if not more so) to go 8-4 as it is 11-1

Iowa the closest to Nebraska's new rival

Storied programs are known fo having rivals but considering this is Nebraska’s second year in the Big 10, the question of “who is Nebraska’s rival?” is not the easiest question to answer.

When I think of rivalry, I mostly think of a few things: a) There is definite polarization as in there’s no way in hell you could root for the other team, b) The game usually means something when the two teams play, c) Fans will watch the game even if they don’t care about either team and d) The game carries equal meaning for BOTH teams.

Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma and others fit that description. OK, sure, you can say Harvard-Yale but how many people are going to drop whatever they are doing to watch that game?

For years, Nebraska was rivals with Oklahoma. The interesting thing is that OU has generally considered Texas its biggest rival but Nebraska-Oklahoma was the traditional game that took place the day after Thanksgiving. Plus, both teams were good at the same time for many years, combining for 12 National Championships (OU has seven, NU has five) and dominated the Big Eight conference, which later expanded to the Big 12. However, the breakup of the Oklahoma-Nebraska rivalry created a much bigger stir with Nebraska fans than Oklahoma.

With that expansion, both teams played each other two years out of every four since Nebraska is in the Big 12 North and Oklahoma is in the Big 12 South. Since 1993, the two clubs have only shared three good seasons (2001, 2010 and to a lesser extent 2006). The two teams met in the Big 12 title game in 2006 and 2010. OU suffered some fallow years from 1994-1998 before Bob Stoops arrived to resurrect the program. Nebraska suffered mostly subpar years from 2002-2007 but while the Huskers have become good under head coach Bo Pelini they have not made the leap to great.

Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri had elements of the notion “rivalry” with Nebraska the last 15 or so years as the meetings have been testy at times. Bill McCartney was known for “red lettering” Nebraska on the schedule but a large segment of Husker fans even to this day did not consider it a rivalry. They won’t any time soon because Colorado is now a member of the Pac 12 and Missouri is in the SEC.

So now that Nebraska has vacated the Big 12, which team will become its biggest rival? Last season, you could have made an argument for Ohio State because of their recent conference dominance and the fact that Pelini played there in the 1980s. However, the two programs have very little history against each other, having played head-to-head just twice and those meetings came in 1955 and 1956. Though the two team staged an epic matchup last year in Lincoln with the Huskers coming back from a 27-6 deficit to win 34-27.

You could make an argument for Michigan because of the recent history involving Nebraska’s 2005 Alamo Bowl 32-28 win that represented the height of the Bill Callahan era and split 1997 national championship. The Wolverines were in a downslide in going 15-22 the last three years after the ill-fated move of firing head coach Lloyd Carr and replacing him with Rich Rodriguez. Brady Hoke was hired to replace the since fired Rodriguez and the Wolverines went 11-2 last season. However, Michigan and Ohio State have each other, in which case Nebraska won’t resonate as strong with either program.

Penn State has possibilities for the Huskers being rivals with because the two teams share some nonconference history. Remember 1982 in Happy Valley when Nebraska fought back from a 21-7 deficit and finally pulled into the lead on an 80 yard drive with 1:18 remaining? Yet, the Nittany Lions drove right back and handed the Cornhuskers their first and only loss of the season when Penn State completed a controversial pass deep into Nebraska’s end zone with just four seconds left on the clock. Penn State tight end Mike McCloskey, who was the receiver of the game winning catch, admitted he was out of bounds on the play and should have been ruled ineligible 16 years later. If the catch had been flagged properly, Nebraska’s position for National championship consideration would have been much stronger.

Then there was 1994 when both teams were unbeaten but Nebraska was voted National Champion in both the AP and coaches poll. Keep in mind, Penn State’s move to the Big 10 prevent both teams from playing each other because at the time the Big 10 and Pac 10 champion was automatically tied to the Rose Bowl. However, it should also be noted that Nebraska beat two top five teams (Colorado and Miami) while Penn State did not. The two teams also played a home-and-home series in 2002 and 2003.

However, Penn State has far bigger issues. Need we say more?

Wisconsin and Nebraska have the geographic proximity and similar color scheme (red) to be rivals. The Badgers were the most aggressive, at least publicly, as head coach Bret Bielema contacted the Big Ten office about scheduling an end-of-year series with Nebraska just hours after the Huskers were voted into the league. ESPN.com quoted Bielema as saying: “With Coach (Tom) Osborne’s and Coach (Barry) Alvarez’s history, maybe we can start a little trophy game. Call it the Alvaborn Cup or something like that. We don’t have a season-ending finale game, so maybe we can start a tradition here.”

Osborne and Alvarez are both former head coaches turned athletic directors at Nebraska and Wisconsin respectively. Alvarez also played linebacker for Nebraska in 1960s. Wisconsin could use a regular rival on the final Saturday of the season, now that the Minnesota game has been moved earlier as opposed to the day after Thanksgiving. Wisconsin, however, will always have Minnesota as its border rival but considering how bad Minnesota has been, Wisconsin would love a good rival to latch on to.

Speaking of which, Nebraska will play Iowa the day after Thanksgiving in what will be called the Heroes Game. The two teams have played each other 41 times, however, all but six (including last year’s 20-7 win by Nebraska) came in the pre-Bob Devaney era (1960).

The two states are neighboring and there is a genuine dislike between the two fans bases but this series, to me, is more of Iowa being the new Colorado in that the Hawkeye fans view as a rivalry more so than Nebraska.

Essentially, I view Iowa as the new Colorado. However, it will be different in this way, while CU would only occassionaly win the game and was thus not a real rival, Iowa’s rivalry will be tied to how close Nebraska is to them. Yes, Nebraska boarders Colorado but Boulder seemed light years away from Lincoln. Nebraska shares the Missouri River with Iowa and there are major metro areas on each side and more natural competition for fan support. So, Iowa seems much more natural then CU ever was as a rival.  

Swing games will be pivotal

Nebraska can definitely consider itself contenders for the 2012 Big 10 championship based on talent but it’ll be how the Huskers respond in crucial games that will ultimately determine their fate.

That was not always the case in 2011. Nebraska had an impressive 24-3 win over eventual Big 10 Legends Division champ Michigan. The Huskers also showed enormous resolve winning 17-14 at Penn State in the wake of a scandal ridden week in Happy Valley. Nebraska also had a solid effort in a regular-season closing 20-7 win over Iowa. Yet for those three good wins there were ugly losses to Wisconsin (48-17) and Michigan (45-17). Then the Huskers followed up the aforementioned win over Michigan State with a disturbing 28-25 loss at home to Northwestern and lest we forget the season-ending 30-13 Capital One Bowl loss to South Carolina.

In the Bo Pelini era, the Huskers went from bad to good very quickly. Unfortunately, the elevator on the way to great has stopped at good. For Nebraska to take that step in becoming a great team, how it performs in the “swing games” will determinate that fate:

Vs. Wisconsin, Sept. 29

The Huskers’ Big 10 debut was a disaster in Madison last season but the good news for Nebraska is that it will gets its conference opener against the Badgers in Lincoln.

Luckily for Nebraska, quarterback Russell Wilson is gone but the Badgers still have running back Montee Ball, who hammered Nebraska for 151 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s meeting. Ball will be a Heisman Trophy candidate this season.

At Ohio State, Oct. 6

The Buckeyes will not be eligible for the Big 10 title game or a bowl game due to NCAA sanctions from the Jim Tressel era. However, this will be a tough road game for Nebraska and how the Huskers fare is likely to weigh heavy for AP voters.

Ohio State limped to a 6-7 season a year ago but the Huskers needed to rally from a 27-6 definit midway through the third quarter to rally for a 34-27 win.

The Buckeyes figure to be a much improved team under new head coach Urban Meyer.



following week, the Cornhuskers will have to face off against Coach Urban Meyer and his Ohio State Buckeyes on their turf.

Vs. Michigan, Oct. 27

This game is somewhat similar to the aforementioned game against Wisconsin in that last season Michigan hammered the Huskers in Ann Arbor but the good news is that the Wolverines come to Lincoln in 2012.

Michigan will likely enter the season as a Top 10 team in the preseason polls that may tab the favorite to win the Big 10 crown.

The bad news is that quarterback Denard Robinson, who accounted for four touchdowns in last year’s game, is still on the roster.

Win or lose, this could be a defining game for Nebraska.

At Michigan State, Nov. 3

Though the Huskers dominated last year’s meeting, they will head to East Lansing to face what figures to be a solid Michigan State club.

Proposed four-team playoff not perfect but it's a start

For several years, college football fans and media have wanted a playoff system. Now it appears they will be getting one.

I’m not even going to try to explain the parameters of the proposed four-team playoff. I’ll let collegefootballnews.com do the honors:

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1196749.html

I have long been in the minority, while the BCS (Bowl Championship series) is not perfect, I don't think NCAA March Madness in basketball is the cat's meow either like some people are inclined to believe. Like most people, I fill out my office pool but you’re not going to hear me say that March Madness is the greatest thing since the Great Wall of China.

You see, before the BCS came into being in the 1998 season, we frequently had two undefeated teams. The problem is that they seldom matched up against each either: 1991 Miami-Washington, 1994 Nebraska-Penn state, 1997 Nebraska-Michigan. Did those teams play each other on the field? No.

Why? Because the Pac-10 and Big 10 were so hell-bent on keeping their Rose Bowl tradition but when they had an unbeaten team, they'd whine about either getting a split National title (i.e. Michigan in 1997) or no National title (i.e. Penn State in 1994). I say, sorry folks. You can't have it both ways (i.e. keep your tradition and whine about a split National Title). The reality is that Penn State screwed itself out of the National title in 1994 by going from Independent to Big 10.

The BCS hasn't been without its controversies either. One loss Florida State instead of Miami (also a one loss team) played unbeaten Oklahoma in 2000. One loss Nebraska instead of Oregon (also a one loss team) played unbeaten Miami in 2001. One loss Oklahoma instead of one loss USC played LSU for the BCS title in 2003. One loss Florida instead of one loss Michigan played Ohio State in 2006. Of course, no one was complaining when in 2002 (Ohio State-Miami), 2004 (Oklahoma-USC) or 2005 (Texas-USC) were a battle of two unbeaten teams.

The 2006-2008 seasons, however, were jumbled beyond belief. In 2006, you had two one loss teams playing for the title as Florida met Ohio State, while one-loss Michigan and undefeated Boise State were left in the cold.

In 2007, you had a two-loss LSU team meeting a one-loss Ohio State team. In the process, many people lobbied for USC and/or Georgia (a pair of two loss teams) to play in the title game.

In 2008, two one-loss teams (Florida and Oklahoma) met for the title while unbeaten Utah and one loss teams USC, Texas, Penn state and Alabama were left in the cold.

Ohio State lost both of its title games (41-16 to Florida and 38-24 to LSU) as viewers of the game wasted four hours of their lives they will not get back. Florida defeated Oklahoma 24-14.

The interesting subplot to the whole matter was that Boise State and Utah (two nonBCS schools) made noise. Boise State defeated Oklahoma 32-31 in the Fiesta Bowl in 2006. Well, 2006 regular season/2007 bowl game. While Utah defeated Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl in a game that really wasn’t even that close.

I’m perhaps in the minority but I think Boise State and Utah should have been awarded a share of the National Title or been allowed to play in the title game. And please, don’t come at me with the strength of schedule argument or the notion of “they would have gotten blown out.” And if they do, so what, I don’t see how it’s any worse than watching Ohio State get its doors blown off by two SEC teams.

While you will never get a system that satisfies everyone, I’m all for the proposed four-team playoff. The problem is, I can see it morphing into a football version of March Madness, which would be a liability not an asset. Four teams (six maybe) is an ideal number. For one thing, the regular season still means something because a two-loss team is not normally going to be in the Top Four. Honestly, no team with two losses should be playing for a National Championship. I know the cynics would say that considering the BCS Title Game between Alabama and LSU was a rematch, the argument of “the regular season still matters in college football” was tainted.

The one example that I keep coming back for my case in favor of a four-team playoff to is the 2010 season. Oregon and Auburn went undefeated from the Pac 10 and SEC respectively. I say, well and good, they should play in the BCS Title Game because if you come out of those conferences undefeated, you have earned the right to play for the title.

However, there was one other problem. You had an unbeaten TCU team from the Mountain West. Of course, the cynics would ask, “well, who the hell are you playing in the Mountain West?” TCU defeated an 11-1 Wisconsin team from the Big 10 by the final of 21-19 in the Rose Bowl. Then you have an 11-1 Stanford team from the Pac 10 that smashed Virginia Tech 40-12 in the Rose Bowl. VaTech went 11-2 in the regular season. When the dust settled after all of the bowl games had been completed, most people believed that Stanford was the best remaining one-loss team. Keep in mind, Wisconsin’s aforementioned loss to TCU dropped them to 11-2. There’s one more argument, “well what about Ohio State?” The Buckeyes went 11-1 out of the Big 10 and defeated an 11-2 Arkansas team 31-26 in the Sugar Bowl.

Yes, Ohio State would have had a legitimate point. However, if you had a Final Four of Oregon, Auburn, TCU and Stanford, that would have sufficed for two reasons: 1) You have two teams from power conferences like Auburn and Oregon, 2) Your unbeaten TCU or Boise State or Utah would get their chance and 3) Your best remaining one-loss team like Stanford would also get its chance. I believe that’s the scenario most people want anyhow. So you leave out another deserving one-loss club like Ohio State or Wisconsin? Losing one game won’t dash their National Title hopes but you get a playoff, maintain your bowl games and make the regular season matter.

As for the bowl games, people would say “but they make money.” Your major bowls like the Orange, Rose, Fiesta, and Sugar are not going anywhere. Neither are other New Years Day bowl games. For that matter, neither are games like the Holiday Bowl. Start by getting rid of bowl games that are being occupied by 6-6 teams. They have no business even playing in a bowl game.

2012 Game-by-game forecast

Phil Steele’s college football magazine comes out in the next ten days. Who knows where you might find an early copy — but he’s got Nebraska at No. 17 in his preseason poll. He also has Iowa (No. 38); Michigan (No. 22) and Michigan State (No. 19) are ranked behind NU so it stands to reason that Steele sees the Huskers as a slight Legends Division favorite.

There’s no reason Nebraska shouldn’t be better in all phases of the game in 2012 compared last year. Michigan probably will be the same as last year, which was good, but they lose Mike Martin on the defensive line which will be a huge loss for them. The game against Michigan will be played in Lincoln this year and I expect that to make some difference. Michigan State has a new quarterback and is replacing a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Like last year, the Legends Division figures to be a tight race.

Taking a very early look at the 2012 schedule here's how I foresee it going. Please note that I have done zero research and I'm just going off of what I remember from last season and projecting towards 2012.

Southern Miss...Win--95% probability. The Golden Eagles looked very impressive in their 24-17 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl but the Eagles lost their head coach to another team, their starting quarterback to graduation, along with a host of other players who had started for several seasons. In short, Southern Miss will essentially be starting over from scratch.

@ UCLA...Win--90% probability. New coach, new system and more than likely it will be a pro-style. Which plays right into the kind of defense Nebraska likes to play, meaning rush the front four, drop seven into coverage and play a match-up zone. The questions I have are, how will Devin Fuller be used, will he redshirt, or will new head coach Jim Mora roll the dice and play a true freshman? If I were Mora, I'd design an offense around what Fuller can do and take the lumps with a true freshman starting at quarterback.

Arkansas St...W--99.999999999999% probability. The only way the Red Wolves win, or even have a shot, is if Nebraska has another -8 turnover day like they did against Iowa State in 2009.

Idaho St...W--99.999999999999% probability. See Ark St.

Wisconsin...W--50% probability. There are two upsides: 1) the game is in Lincoln and 2) no more Russell Wilson. Even still this will be a tough physical game for the Huskers. One thing is certain though Nebraska’s defensive line and indeed whole defense will have to step up big time in the tough and physical department.

@ Ohio St. L--60% probability. On the road, versus a shifty, agile, mobile, quarterback and a defense that well, quite frankly, gets embarrassed too frequently by mobile QBs. If Nebraska can contain Braxton Miller and avoid turnovers they can pull it out, but it will be an intense uphill climb.

@ Northwestern...W--50% probability. The biggest question I have is will Nebraska actually take the Wildcats seriously this time around? They’d be crazy not to after the wildcats came into Lincoln last year and pulled off a 28-25 upset. While Northwestern loses a lot of people their biggest difference maker, Cain Kolter, returns.

Michigan...L--75% probability. Unless Bo Pelini changes or tweaks his defensive philosophy, this is another probable loss. I hate to harp on it but look at the way Michigan State played Michigan and then contrast it with the way the Huskers played the Wolverines. The Spartans blitzed and pressured Denard Robinson and the Huskers played a soft coverage. Well the results of those two games are a stark reminder of why I do not really like Nebraska's chances here.

@ Michigan St...W--75% probability. Kirk Cousins, their two top wide receivers, and one running back are gone so there will be some retooling. This is another on the road dangerous game that if Nebraska doesn't take seriously they could lose.

Penn St...W--85% probability. This is a program in shambles. The new head coach for the Lions has his work cut out for him to say the least. This could be an ugly year for them.

Minnesota...W--96% probability. The Gophers just don't have the personnel to compete.

@ Iowa...W--65% probability. Nebraska typically doesn't struggle against Iowa the way other Big 10 teams do, although now that we're in the Big 10 there will be much more familiarity as we'll play every season. But for now, the Huskers have the edge.

Best case scenario: Undefeated season with a conference and national title as well.

Okay, now that the laughter has subsided, I think the best case scenario for 2012 is a 10-2 regular season. I see Nebraska more than likely losing to Michigan and Ohio State. I think that Nebraska loses due to how Pelini plays his defensive scheme not because I think the Huskers aren't talented enough to compete or win.

Worst case, and this could get real ugly real fast, Nebraska loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and tanks to 6-6.

I'll sort of split the difference and say 9-3 in the regular season with losses to MU, OSU and some unranked team at home.

Looking ahead to 2012

Perhaps the most comical thing to listen to from a football fan (high school, college or NFL) in February besides NFL draft hype or college recruiting rankings is gauging strength of schedule for the upcoming season.


Nebraska football fans are no different. Whether it is looking at message boards, Facebook and Twitter or listening to talk radio, expectations for the 2012 season range from the cynical group (6-6 and barely bowl eligible) to realistic (say 9-3 and another early New Years’ Day bowl game in Florida) to Kool Aid sipping (say anything less than 11-1 is a pathetic failure).

The Huskers’ first game is not until Sept. 1 when Southern Mississippi comes to Lincoln. I know. You want answers. We live in an instant gratification world. Instead, the thumbnail sketch of each opponent will have to whet your palate for now:

September 1, vs. Southern Mississippi: The last time these two teams met in 2004, Nebraska committed an unsightly six turnovers in a 21-17 loss in Game Two of the Bill Callahan era. The Huskers actually outgained the Golden Eagles 2-to-1 in total yards but six turnovers will hurt anyone’s chances of winning. This game is the most stringent season opener since Oklahoma State in 2003. Southern Miss was solid defensively a year ago but loses three starters and has a new coaching staff.

September 8, at UCLA: For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers are facing a team breaking in a new coaching staff. The Bruins underachieved last season on the way to a 6-8 season that ultimately cost head coach Rick Neuheisul (everyone’s favorite in Nebraska) his job, since replaced by Jim Mora Jr. The Bruins are a talented but enigmatic bunch which means they could be 7-5 or 10-2 but the former is more likely in a conference that already has powerhouses like Stanford, Oregon and USC. With 16 returning starters, you have to like Nebraska’s chances. The question is, will Nebraska be making a trip to the Rose Bowl in January? Possible but not probable.

September 15, vs. Arkansas State: The cynics are going to take their Sun Belt jabs, however, Arkansas State is not a bottom of the barrel Sun Belt team either. The Red Wolves were a bowl team last year. Granted, being a bowl team nowadays is ridiculously easy but you get the idea. The Red Wolves hired head coach Gus Malzahn, who is known as a bright offensive mind, along with Michael Dyer at running back. Dyer transferred from Auburn, where he rushed for over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons. The truth of the matter, however, is that the Red Wolves are still a Sun Belt that is not going to beat an upper-third Big Ten team in their building.

9/22, TBA: However, it is likely going to be a body bag game.

9/29: vs. Wisconsin: The Badgers lose Russell Wilson and Nick Toon, which will slow their offense but Wisconsin has enough of a culture in place to where it tends to restock its cupboard quickly. Both teams have excellent running backs in Rex Burkhead (Nebraska) and Monte Ball (Wisconsin). This game will come down to Husker quarterback Taylor Martinez not making negative plays like last year’s 48-17 loss in Madison. Complain about play-calling all you want but made decisions that night that were bad for high school JV quarterbacks.

10/6: at Ohio State: If there is one thing that new Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer has proven is that he knows how to coach quarterbacks. In which case, look for Braxton Miller to blossom under Meyer’s tutelage. The Huskers will have their share of turnover on defense but the Blackshirts need to have gelled by this game if not sooner especially since this game is in Columbus. Otherwise, the Huskers could be looking at a long day.

10/20, at Northwestern: Coming off a bye week, Bo Pelini and Company should be eager to avenge last year’s 28-25 head-scratcher of a loss in Lincoln. Quarterback Dan Persa is gone but Nebraska had a hard time containing backup Kain Colter, who rushed for 57 yards. Colter is no Dennard Robinson but not easy to contain nonetheless.

10/27, vs. Michigan: This figures to be a crucial game in the Legends Division race as Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska play each other over a three-week stretch. Robinson leads an explosive offense and the Blackshirts have to slow them down to have a chance. The Wolverines won’t win 45-17 in Lincoln like they did in Ann Arbor a year ago when the two teams met but with eight returning starters on defense, Michigan will be a handful.

11/3, at Michigan State: The Spartans return key defenders but the question is, who evolves quicker? The Spartan defense or the Husker offense? Last season, the Husker defense dominated Michigan State which had an offense of Kirk Cousins and a receiving corps that included B.J. Cunningham.

11/10, vs. Penn State: Besides the off-the-field issues, Penn State is breaking in an entirely new coaching staff led by Bill O’Brien. Penn State was a very talented team on the defensive side of the ball, but only returns five starters. The Lions also have only five starters coming back on offense but when you rank 110th in scoring, is that a bad thing? Penn State should be better but breaking in a new coaching staff takes time.

11/17, vs. Minnesota: Jerry Kill might just be the guy that leads Minnesota back to respectability. The Gophers should have a more potent offense but they have a lot of gaps to fill on defense. Nebraska should win this game going away. Key word “should.”

11/23: at Iowa: This game screams “advantage Nebraska” because Iowa lost both coordinators and their defensive line coach (Rick Kaczenski) jumped ship to Nebraska. Though it could be said about any game, the Husker offense needs to be clicking because playing in Iowa City is no walk in the park. The Hawkeyes were 7-6 last season but play solid defense and are balanced enough on offense to give teams a headache.
I'm not suggesting that the optimism of this blog entry is anything but drug-induced, but the schedule does align better for Nebraska in 2012. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, and UCLA will have almost entirely new staffs. Iowa has a bunch of turnover in that department as well. There is no question that those programs (all Nebraska opponents) will struggle a little next year the same way the Husker staff struggled to game plan for twelve new opponents, not to mention that they don’t have a good sense of their own personnel. That scenario leads me to this: Nebraska does not have to game plan for 12 new opponents and has a better understanding of its personnel. This is worth at least two wins this year.
The non-conference slate is interesting because of the staff turnover, but Nebraska should beat Arkansas State and Southern Miss on talent and scheme alone and pull out a win over UCLA while Mora is getting his ducks in a row. The game at Ohio State and at home against Michigan will define the Huskers season.

Best case: 11-1, trip to the Big Ten Championship

Worst case: 8-4, playing in a mid-level bowl like the Gator or Insight
Realistic: 9-3, possibly winning the Legends depending on how the Wolverines and Spartans play. Not controlling our own destiny.

Huskers should win big Saturday -- key word "should"

Nebraska and Minnesota have a lot of history playing each other, 51 times to be exact (Nebraska leads the all-time series 29-20-2). However, only 14 of those games have been played since 1960 but the two teams have not met since 1990.


Both clubs are coming off a bye week and while the Huskers learned that they will be without preseason All-American defensive tackle Jared Crick (torn pectoral muscle) for the season, there is very little reason to think this game will be anything other than a decisive win for Nebraska as it travels to Minneapolis.

The Huskers, who lost 48-17 at Wisconsin Oct. 1, averted entering the bye week with consecutive losses by rallying for their largest comeback in school history in a 34-27 win over Ohio State one week later. Nebraska trailed 27-6 midway through the third quarter.

The Gophers are 1-5 and have lost three straight games. their lone win was a 29-23 win over Miami. However, that was Miami of Ohio, not the Miami Hurricanes. Nebraska enters this game as a 25-point favorite and has played much better this season on offense. Quarterback Taylor Martinez was heavily criticized for his performance against Wisconsin but rebounded with a solid performamce (especially in the second half) against Ohio State. Running back Rex Burkhead has been the Huskers most consistent weapon all season.
Minnesota is giving up an average of 35 points per game and is equally poor at stopping the run (ranked No. 74) and the pass (ranked No. 91). If the Huskers exert their dominance as they should, the backups should get a lot of snaps.
While the Husker defense (I hesitate to call them Blackshirts just yet) has been a disappointment, they have a bye week followed by a God aweful offense. Then again, most people said the same thing about Ohio State and the Buckeyes moved the ball with little trouble (especially in the first half) against Nebraska.

However, the Huskers perhaps discovered who can play cornerback opposite Alfonso Dennard and that would be converted wide receiver Stanley Jean-Baptiste. Perhaps an extra week of practice will help further his growth into the position.
Nebraska used Stanley Jean-Baptiste at cornerback in the second half of the Ohio State game. Jean-Baptiste made an interception and helped shut down the Ohio State wide receivers; after only playing cornerback for three weeks.
He began the season as a wide receiver. With the extra week of practice, the Blackshirts may have found a third playmaker in their secondary to go with Dennard and safety Graham Stoddard.
Minnesota has a mobile quarterback in MarQueis Gray, something that has given the Huskers trouble. The problem is Minnesota has a No. 110 ranking in total offense.
There is a slight chance Minnesota could keep this game closer than the oddsmakers think. Keep in mind, Minnesota gave USC all it could handle in a 19-17 loss but we are not talking a USC team led by Carson Palmer, Matt Leinert or Reggie Bush.

As long as Nebraska doesn't beat itself, it wins this game going away.

Second half look ahead

In two of Bo Pelini's first three seasons as Nebraska's football head coach, the Huskers had a penchant for being a strong second half team.


In 2008, the Huskers were 3-3 but finished the campaign winning six of their last seven games (including a 26-21 win over Clemson in the Gator Bowl) to conclue the season 9-4. In 2009, the Huskers were 4-3 but again finished the season with six wins in their last seven games (including a 33-0 Holiday Bowl win over Arizona) to finish 10-4. Last season, however, Nebraska was not a second half team. At least not in the final third. The Huskers were 9-1 at one point but lost three of their last four games (including a 19-7 loss to Washington in the Holiday Bowl) to finish 10-4.

As the Huskers begin the second half of 2011 with a 5-1 record entering Saturday's game at Minnesota, the question begs, which second half team will we see? 2008/2009 or 2010? Hopefully, the former. Since Pelini took over as the head coach, Nebraska is 15-3 in the second half of its regular season schedule but for that trend to continue the Huskers need to improve.

Despite the team's 5-1 record, many Nebraska fans have been disappointed in the team's play, so much so that they have referred to the team as overrated and has a bleak future. Overrated? Perhaps so. Bleak future? Get real.

True, Nebraska looked hoorible in a 48-17 loss to Wisconsin and in the first half of their 34-27 come-from-behind win over Ohio State but I believe Nebraska will have a good second half to the season. What it means as far as wins and losses? Who knows.

On the offensive side, the Huskers have had their moments of struggling but in general progressed ahead of schedule despite having a new coordinator (Tim Beck) and more collective yout than recent memory.

Through quarterback Taylor Martinez has the lightening speed, running back Rex Burkhead is the foundation of the offense. Burkhead could carry the offense if necessary but freshman Ameer Abdullah's speed is a nice compliment to Burkhead's steadiness. Since the days of 30-carry per game running backs are a thing of the past, having a good one-two punch becomes important.

Though Martinez will never be confused with Tom Brady as a passer, he is better than his critics are willing to acknowledge but for the Husker passing game to work, the ground game has to be on point.

While the Husker offense has improved, the defense has been the weak link and I bet you thought you would have never heard those words uttered about a Pelini coached team.

The Huskers will have to make due without defensive tackle Jared Crick, who was a preseason All-American. Crick will miss the rest of the season because of a torn pectoral muscle. His replacements (note the plural) will be Terrance Moore, Thad Randle and Chase Rome at defensive tackle in the second half of the season.

Despite losing Crick, I believe Nebraska will play much better defensively in the second half of the season. Pelini has been a great defensive mind his entire career and didn't suddenly become a dummy. Nebraska probably will not be the dominant unit it was in 2009 but I've got to think that a close evaluation by Pelini during the bye week will help this defense perform closer to the unit it was in 2009 and to a lesser extent 2010.

Cornerback/converted wide receiver Stanly Jean-Baptiste's interception led to the game-winning touchdown against Ohio State. The bye probably did him some good as well in terms of further adjusting to a new position.

Jean-Baptiste played in his first game as a cornerback against Ohio State. Jean-Baptiste played wide receiver for the first part of the 2011 season before switching to cornerback.

The Huskers, however, have a much tougher slate in the second half than they did in the first. Nebraska should win aturday's game at Minnesota going away. The Huskers then come home for Michigan State, who most people believe is the toughest remaining game for the Huskers. However, there are three things to keep in mind: a) The Spartans come to Lincoln, b) Michogan State will be coming to Lincoln after consecutive tough contests against Michigan and Wisconsin, c) Nebraska will have had a bye and a trip to Minnesota. Will those three factors translate into a Husker win? Who knows but they are no small advantages.

After Michigan State, Northwestern comes to town. Wildcats quarterback Dan Persa can be a headache for most any defense but given the fact that they rank 1-1st nationally in total defense, Northwestern will be hard-pressed to come into Lincoln and win.

Then, back-to-back road tests at Penn State and Michigan await. even though the former has looked suspect at times, they have a very stout defense. The latter meanwhile has a mobile quarterback in Denard Robinson, the type of quarterback Nebraska has had problems defending.

The Huskers then close the regular season at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have a terrible defense but a favorable remaining schedule of Indiana, at Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State, and at Purdue entering the Nebraska game should keep them in the mix for a Legends Division title.

Many Husker fans had visions of a trip to the Rose Bowl in the team's first Big Ten season. That goal is definitely within reach but the Huskers are also flawed enough to have one or two losses.

Handicapping the second half of the season

College football bye weeks are a good time for a few things as it pertains to fans: getting chores down around the house, watching other college football games or doing something with your family.


I definitely didn't get any chores done so mowing the lawn will have to wait. I watched a smattering of a few games but spent most of the day on an outing with my wife and kids. However, as I was taking a nap on the way home while my wife drove (I was in too altered of a state to drive), I was thinking about how Nebraska's season has transpired to this point and will potentiall take place the remainder of the 2011 season.

The Huskers, who are ranked No. 14 in the Associated Press poll, resume action Saturday at Minnesota. The fact that Nebraska s 5-1 is no surprise. Seriously? When you were sitting around the barbeque this summer that's probably what you would have projected the Huskers' record to be after six games. The process of getting to 5-1, however, has been the furthest from what most projected.

The Huskers entered the bye week with the confluence of extremes. First, there was the embarassing 48-17 loss at Wisconsin. One week later against a struggling Ohio State team, Nebraska rallied from a 27-6 mid third quarter deficit to beat the Buckeyes 34-27. Those struggles in that game, however, do not look so bad today as the Buckeyes (4-3 overall, 1-2 Big Ten) beat No. 16 Illinois 17-7 on the road Saturday. What is that game more reflective of? Is Illinois, who very few people took seriously before the season, just a figment of our imagination? Or is Ohio State simply a troubled program that is still dangerous on a given day? The wait and see approach will be the best answer.

This is probably the most confusing Nebraska team in recent history. The offense that everyone questioned before the season is now viewed by many as the team's strength. Sure the unit laid a giant at Wisconsin but in general first year coordinator Tim Beck has pushed all of the right buttons and the young Nebraska offensive line, which was viewed as a question mark before the season, has been a team strength. So far the play of quarterback Taylor Martinez warrants a solid B. I know, it kills the anti-Martinez crowd to hear this but I'll say it anyhow. I'm not saying I think Martinez is Joe Montana but I have a sadistic pleasure in tweaking the anti-Martinez crowd.

The defense was expected to be a strength but is now a liability. With the exception of linebacker LaVonte David, none of the starters have lived up to their preseason billing. In fact, if the offense was not playing at its current level, the Huskers could very easily be 2-4. Losing cornerback Prince Amukamara to graduation was a tough blow and defensive tackle Jared Crick (torn pectoral muscle) is out for the season. Granted, Crick's peformance had been a disappointment but he still provided a presence. The defense's biggest disappointment is tackling and third down conversions. In the latter category, the Huskers rank 94th nationally, Those two areas must get better or there will be a few more disappointming Saturdays (win or lose).

Looking ahead at the rest of the regular season: The Huskers begin the second half at Minnesota (1-5 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) Friday, home against No. 23 Michigan State (5-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Oct. 29; home against Northwestern (2-4 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) on Nov. 5, at Penn State (6-1 overall, 3-0 Big Ten) on Nov. 12, at No. 11 Michigan (6-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Nov. 19 and home against Iowa (4-2 overall, 1-1 Big Ten).

Just a gut feeling but I think Minnesota and Northwestern are definite wins while the games against Michigan State, Michgan, Iowa and Penn State will be the swing games.

Minnesota is in disarray. Yes, they battled hard at USC before losing 19-17 but it's not as if Carson Palmer, Matt Leinert or Reggie Bush suited up. The Gophers also have a bye but have been outscored by their last two foes (Michigan and Purdue) 103-17.

Northwestern, which has lost four straight since starting 2-0, isn't off the charts terrible as three of their losses are by ten points or less but 2-4 teams are usually 2-4 for a reason. They make enough mistakes to get beat.

As for the swing games, Iowa has easiest remaining schedule as two of the Hawkeyes' four toughest games will be in Iowa City -- Michigan on Nov. 5 and Michigan State on Nov. 12. However, for every big effort their offense has like Saturday in a 41-31 win over Northwestern they come up small like they did in a 13-3 loss at Penn State.

Michigan State is stout defensively. The Spartans entered Saturday's home game against Michigan leading the nation in total defense, allowing only 173.4 yards per game, and rank third in points allowed (10.2).

With Michigan, you have a quarterback in Denard Robinson who is Martinez's equal if not superior in generating big plays. Robinson was the 2010 Big Ten offensive player of the year, entered Saturday's game at Michigan State leading the Big Ten in rushing (120.0 yards per game) and total offense (308.3). The Wolverines were notorious for fast starts but fading finishes under former head coach Rich Rodriguez but under Brady Hoke, this group appears suited for the long haul.

Penn State's offense has been suspect but their defense has done a lot of heavy lifting. Gee whizz, Husker fans can relate to that from 2009.

When the Huskers went 5-7 in the 2007 Bill Callahan distaster, I preached very strongly that 8-4 is the worst Nebraska should ever be. Let's say Nebraska win the Minnesota and Northwestern game. If they do that, I think at worst the Huskers get at least one of the swing games if not two or three.

Martinez the least of Nebraska's problems

Welcome to another Monday of addressing knee jerk reactions. If you listen to some Nebraska football fans, message board posters and in some cases mainstream media members, you would think quarterback Taylor Martinez was the primary (and only) reason for the Nebraska football team's problems.


The term problem, of course, should be taken with a grain of salt since many college football teams would gladly take the Huskers problems of being 5-1 and ranked No. 13 in the latest Associated Press poll after Saturday's stunning 34-27 come-from-behind win over Ohio State. Nebraska being 5-1 is not necessarily a problem, only the process most people figured is not what most (including myself) anticipated. In head coach Bo Pelini's four seasons, the Huskers made a transformation from being the worst defense known to man under former defensive coordinator Kevin Cosgrove in 2007 when they were 114th in the nation in total defense to No. 4 in 2009. The defense was not as strong last season but definitely strong enough in 2009 and 2010 to where if Nebraska had an even mediocre offense, it would have bee good enough to win a Big 12 title.

Fast forward to 2011, offensive coordinator Shawn Watson leaves and Husker fans celebrated pretty much en masse as running backs coach Tim Beck was promoted to offensive coordinator. Watson's departure alone made Nebraska fans dance in the streets. Most people figured the offense would take time to find its way in 2011 while the defense did a lot of heavy lifting. Sure, losses like cornerback Prince Amukamara, safeties Eric Hagg and Dejon Gomes would be felt. However, the Huskers boasted a high end returning player at every level of the defense -- tackle Jared Crick, linebacker LaVonte David and cornerback Alfonso Dennard.

So far, only David has lived up to his preseason hype. To be fair, Dennard is still working his way back into form after missing the first four games to a quad injury. Crick and defensve end Cameron Meredith, however, have been big disappointments. If not for David's mid third quarter forced and recovered fumble of Buckeye quarterback Braxton Miller, the Huskers don't even begin to make their second half charge.

So how does all of this pertain to Martinez? Let's talk about that for just a minute. Does Martinez have his issues? Yes. Is Martinez free of fault? No. However, when you look at the Huskers entire body of work over the course of six games, the team's problems are less about him and much more about the defense. In fact, it's not even close.
Forget the Ohio State game for just a nano-second. Let's just assume Nebraska has a defense that most of us come to expect under Pelini. Keep in mind, Nebraska entered Saturday's game ranked No. 73 in total defense. For the sake of discussiom, let's say they are ranked in the top 40 in a worst case scenario. None of the games are even close except for Wisconsin, which was a 48-17 loss.

Even in that game, Nebraska trailed 20-14 late in the first half. The offense actually looked OK at that point before. The offensive line was blocking, running back Rex Burkhead was running well and Martinez was throwing at least decent. If the defense had been playing well, perhaps Beck and Martinez (who let's face it is an average at best passer) wouldn't have been in a position where they felt they constantly needed to score. Though it's easy to hammer Martinez for forcing passes into double coverage, perhaps he would not have been compelled to do so if it did not appear that Wisconsin was going to score on every damn possession.
On Saturday, Nebraska's Blackshirts (if you want to call them that) gave up 246 yards of offense in the first half. If the defense came to play, Nebraska wins this game going away. Keep in mind, Ohio State had a 12-3 minute top of possession edge in he first quarter. So Martinez is not Joe Montana. This may shock the "Bench Martinez's ass" camp but he came up big in the second half along with running back Rex Burkhead.

Martinez completed 16 of 22 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns and one interception. He also added a rushing touchdown, 95 yards on 16 carries. All of that while guiding Nebraska to its biggest come-from-behind win in school history. OK, Martinez, I know it kills you but give the kid some credit.

The bottom line is quarterbacks will have games where they throw interceptions. In case you have never watched a game in your life, great ones throw the. Average ones throw them. Bad ones throw them. The point is Nebraska's defense is supposed to be good enough to where the offense can make a couple mistakes a game so that they can overome them. At this point, that is not close to being the case.

Speaking of the defense, we'll examine that more during the bye week as the Huskers next play at Minnesota on Oct. 22. However, to take a preliminary look, I ask, at what point does Nebraska play the Peso (4-2-5)? It worked like a charm the last few years. I realize conventional widom says you need a three linebacker defense against the Big 10, but right now conventional wisdom sucks. Are the Huskers served better by putting more speed on the field. Does it pay off to have the linebackers in the game when they are non-productive anyway?
Back to Martinez, here's a late breaking story for football fans. Quarterbacks are going to have incompletions, bad reads, and intereptions at every level. It's part of the game. Has Martinez played as well as he can? No. He definitely needs to improve but it stans to reason that the difference between a top ten Nebraska team and the team we see today is not and has not been Martinez. It has been the defense.
Though I have been a Husker fan for 24 years and a graduate for 14, I simply do not get a certain segment of our fans. I get it that Martinez's throwing motion and decision making can be frustrating but we all need to realize that if we want to put in a quarterback that doesn't throw interceptions, you'll never find one. Gee whizz. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers must al really suck.

So while you are busy being convinced that Martinez is the problem, I say this: Keep a healthy Martinez and fix the damn defense and everything else will fall into place.

Stunning second half a season saver -- for the time being

My goodness! What more can be said about No. 14 Nebraska's 34-27 come-from-behind win over the Ohio State Buckeyes.


Never mind that Ohio State (now 3-3) is just a shell of its former self. After last Saturday's debacle of a 48-17 loss at Wisconsin, this win was a psychological hurdle for the Huskers. No matter how much Ohio State has become just another program, you don't rally from a 27-6 deficit to win without having some testicular fortitude.

If you thought negativity among the Nebraska fan base and media was bad entering this game, one could only fathom how things would have been with consecutive losses going into a bye week. Head coach Bo Pelini and quarterback Taylor Martinez were the main targets after the Huskers loss in Madison, Wisc.

Not that either one is out of the woods but they bought themselves breathing space for a week. Despite the win, all is not well in Huskerland by a longshot. The Buckeyes ran through Nebraska like Roseanne Barr at an all-you-can-eat buffet to the tune of 246 yards of offense in the first half. OSU freshman quarterback Braxton Miller rushed for 79 and passed for 68. For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers looked like stumblebumbs on defense. The offense certainly wasn't pulling its weight either.

Sometimes, however, one play can change a game if not the course of a season. Nebraska linebacker LaVonte David's play in the third quarter might be the difference between having a 10-2 season versus a 7-5 season. the Huskers looked more the latter than the former in the first half. The Huskers, as they had the previous week, looked lost on defense, perhaps still reeling from the Wisconsin loss. OSU led 20-6 at halftime. Pelini, who is known as a defensve guru, seemed at a loss for solutions.

David has been a bright spot in a disappointing season for the Blackshirts. Miller made his way through traffic for a 7-yard gain but like a thief in the night, David ripped the ball from the hands of the 6-3, 210-pound quarterback. From there, it was all Huskers. Yes, Nebraska caught a break when the mobile Miller had to leave the game with an ankle injury. His replacement (Joe Bauserman) went 1 for 7 for 13 yards.

However, it should also be pointed out that David made the play with Miller in the game. Also, Miller does not play defense.

With Martinez, you have to look beyond his numbers. Yes, he completed 16 of 22 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns and one interception. He also added a rushing touchdown, 95 yards on 16 carries. However, besides his end-of-the-first-half interception, Martinez bounced back well from last week's performance. He did a better job of checking down to receivers this week, and overall he showed more poise and confidence. Questions can subside about whether he should be Nebraska's starting quarterback. Well, for a week anyhow. ABC color commenator Matt Millen kept harping on how Martinez lacks the ability to stretch the field. It's funny. Last week, Martinez was being criticized for forcing the ball downfield into coverage and not checking down to underneath receivers. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

What more can you say about running back Rex Burkhead? 119 yards on 26 carries and a touchdown. Nebraska rushed for 144 yards in the fourth quarter, against the 13th ranked defense in the country.

What does Saturday's win mean in the grand spectrum of things? Well, mathematically it means the Huskers are 5-1 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten and they saved the program for another two weeks.

The Blackshirts — if you want to call them that — have inexplicably become fundamentally flawed. They suddenly can't make a tackle and look slow. Is this the kind of win that can awaken a sleeping giant? Sometimes personnel deficiencies can't be overcome but there are enough personnel on that played well last season.

We'll see what the next few games bring. The Huskers looked like such a punchless at halftime. Yes, Miller's injury was a break but you've got to start somewhere.

Husker season at a crossroad

I have always found it mildly humorous when the mainstream media uses the past to predict the future, especially from a previous tenure. Look no further than Dirk Chatetlain's post in the Omaha World Herald. Chatelain posted:


"Tuesday night, I had a flashback.
I know, the talent level is deeper. I know, the coaching staff is better. I keep telling myself those things.
But Nebraska got pummeled on national TV Saturday night. Now Yoshi Hardrick is defending Taylor Martinez from a girl in Spanish class. Bo Pelini is conducting longer, more competitive, more physical practices.
This feels like September 2007 all over again.
Remember that fall, Nebraska also had a fourth-year head coach coming off a Big 12 championship game loss to Oklahoma and a bowl game defeat. Remember the defense was supposed to be pretty good — and wasn’t. Remember the quarterback issues.
Bill Callahan responded to the embarrassing 49-31 loss to USC that was not even that close with full-pads practices. Why, you ask, weren’t the Huskers in full pads before? Callahan didn’t have an answer.
After the USC blowout, NU avoided upset against Ball State. But public scrutiny intensified, prompting Corey McKeon’s famous remarks at a press conference. A few quotes from that day:
“This isn’t a down year for Nebraska. We’re 3-1 and people are looking at it like…we’re Notre Dame, like we’re 0-4.”
“You think it just ends on the field with the fans? No, it doesn’t end there. It doesn’t end anywhere. It’s hard for me to go to class after playing the way I played. It’s hard for me to sit there and know that everyone around me is looking at me thinking something.”
The Huskers of 2011 are coming off a 48-17 road loss to Wisconsin and quarterack Taylor Martinez has taken his share of jabs among the Nebraska fan base.

However, what people do not realize is that what determines a team's success over the course of a season is almost all mental. Talent plays a huge role because it forgives a player when he doesn't perfectly execute the mental part of each play. Obviously some teams are too talented for other teams even at mental perfection, but I don't think that's Nebraska's issue. After watching the game in Madison on Saturday I can still see the Huskers winning out but it depends on head coach Bo Pelini's ability to hold the team.
The Nebraska team that rolled into Madison could have won that game. I'm not saying they were the better team. They weren't. I'm not saying they were equally or more talented than Wisconsin. They weren't. But they could have won the game had they done certain things.
We can point to a lot of reasons that Saturday happened but among them include a poor game plan, many mistakes, inability to close on third down (especially on defense), etc. Now if that was a one-game thing then fine but what's interesting to see is if this team can take what happened in stride, continue to attempt to follow a coherent game strategy and remain focused.
To that end, I agree with chaelain bcause the Huskers face a pivotal game saturday at home against an Ohio State team that is still reeling from its off-the-field issues that led to the dismissal of head coach Jim Tressel. Like the Huskers, the Buckeyes are a wounded animal after losing 10-7 at home to Michigan State.

However, where the comparison is not yet accurate is that the 2007 team was broken. I don't think that this team is broken but what could happen is that players can start getting fed up with other players' mistakes and it can lead to more mistakes and lapses in concentration and effort.
That sort of thing becomes the identity of the team. Mistakes are going to keep happening, especially with Martinez or whomever is at quarterback. So if the coaches can't keep everyone on task, this team will probably fall apart. Also, the coaches could keep coming up with gameplans that re obviously frustrating to the players and the players will stop listening. If any of that happens then yeah, we could see a 2007 like season.

However, I just don't see it happening. Pelini can be caustic but it seems like the players love him and he has a different kind of arrogance than someone like Kevin Cosgrove or even Billy Callahan (who I actually didn't mind as a person, just as a coach). If the Huskers keep up this sloppy play then they won't win as many games as they should because their chances of beating teams like Iowa, Michigan State and Penn State goes from the 70-80% range where it should be given their talent to a much lower range (which I still think is greater than 50%).

This Nebraska team is about as predicatable as the stock market. Lots of highs and lows so far. There is a real lack of consistency overall in both defense and portions of the offense. Coaching as well.
However, a win this week at Ohio State and next week at Minnesota would help point the Huskers back in the right direction.


I have never been so uncertain about a season as this. Of course being in the Big 10 the first year doesn't help either.

Examining the latest "the sky is falling" mentality of Husker fans

Suffice it to say, sifting through the wreakage of Nebraska's 48-17 loss to Wisconsin was about as fun as a root canal.


The loss dropped the Huskers to No. 14 in the latest Associated Press poll and elevated the Badgers to No. 4. Like most every Nebraska fan, I was pretty embarrassed by the team's performance. Did I expect the Huskers to beat Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium? No, because the Badgers are a pretty damn good team and Camp Randall Stadium is one of the most hostile environments in college football for a visiting team. At worst, however, I at least felt Nebraska should have been competitive. Is Wisconsin better than the Huskers? Yes. When you lose by 31 points, there are no grey areas. However, I find it hard to fathom that Wisconsin is 31 points better than the Huskers. 10-15? Yes but that's immaterial now.

While I am a proud Nebraska fan, alum and donor to the University, it's times like this that cause a lot of consternation over being a Husker fan. I logged on to various message boards on Saturday night. Granted, I was in an altered state like many but some of the posts really chapped me to no end. Before go any further, yes I get it, this is a free country. Freedom of speech is something that people fought wars to get and protect. You are entitled to your opinion just like I am entitled to mine. OK, now that I have established that point, the posts that I was really taken aback by were:



1) Get rid of Bo Pelini: Seriously? Look, I am not Pelini's defense attorney but I could not beieve that post. In three years time, Pelini got the Huskers to the Big 12 championship game twice. Nebraska lost both times by a combined total of four points. I will agree that Pelini has not had a landmark win that makes people take notice and it remains to be seen if he will. However, he has built the program up from the Bill Callahan era, which was a dark time for all of us.

The loss to the Badgers was without a doubt the low pont of the Pelini era but to say get rid of him. Come on, who are we Notre Dame? Remember all the nimrods that said get rid of Tom Osborne just because the Huskers lost to Oklahoma 13 out of 17 years from 1972 to 1987? Those are the same Einsteins that wanted Osborne fired after the 1990 season when Nebraska closed the year with losses to Oklahoma and Georgia Tech by a combined score of 90-31. Then a strange thing happened, after leading the Huskers to a 60-3 record from 1993-1997, a run that included three National Championships in four years, all the sudden he could do no wrong. Therefore, if the powers that be listened to the advice to fire Osborne, as Husker fans we probably are not even talking about the greatness we saw in the 1990s.

Chances are those are the same nimrods that got their wish when Frank Solich got fired after a 58-19 tenure from 1998-2003. Well, you got your wish, you got Callahan, who delivered a very pedestrian 27-22 record with two bowl-less seasons.



I am not saying that Pelini is the next Osborne and yes, I acknowledge, the Pelini grace period ended after the Huskers lost 19-7 to Washington in the Holiday Bowl. However, just remember, change only guarantees that things will be different but different does not always mean better.



2) Bench Taylor Martinez: The redshirt sophomore may or may not be the answer at quarterback but to say replace him with redshirt freshman Brion Carnes is a real stretch. If the Huskers do that, they are kissing their season away after one loss.

Does Martinez need to perform better than he did Saturday? Without a doubt he does but other than late game mop-up duty, Carnes has no meaningful game experience. Even with all of his flaws, Martinez knows the offense much better than Carnes and has experience. True, Martinez is not Andrew Luck, Russel Wilson, or Landry Jones but what the hell happens if the coaches insert Carnes and he is worse than Martinez? I know the thought of Carnes being worse than Martinez is absolutely impossible to believe I know but what's next if that happens? Let's call for Ron Kellogg.



I say keep Martinez in there, until the coaches feel that Carnes is capable of running the offense, which could happen as soon as nex year.



3) Blackshirts: I agree that Nebraska's defense looked terrible last night, looking almost like the Kevin Cosgrove. This defense is very young and the secondary is hurting with the loss of Marvin but I trust that the Pelini Brothers (Bo and Carl) will right the ship throughout the season and plug the holes.



I generally think early October is too soon to call a team great but Wisconsin very well could be. Plain and simple, the Badgers kicked the Huskers from one end of the field to the other.

Many people believed Nebraska had a shot, I was one of them. I definitely believe that had the Huskers committed more to their running game, the game would have been closer at least but realistically how good were those chances with a questionable defense and an unreliable quarterback?

I am not trying to insult anybody with my opinions, but I just find it hard to believe how so many people went into "the sky is falling" mode after the loss. We lost, that's it. You think that Florida is saying that they should fire their Will Muschamp after getting routed by Alabama. I doubt it.

Sifting through the trainwreck in Madison

There's no way to possible to make this one look good. Because it wasn't. No. 8 Nebraska, or sooner to former No. 8, had a welcome to the Big Ten 48-17 loss to No. 7 Wisconsin on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.


While the Badgers were tabbed a 10-point favorite entering the contest, the Huskers should have been at least expected to be competitive. Instead, you get a loss that was pretty similar to 2008 setbacks to Missouri (52-17) and Oklahoma (62-28). Losses like that in 2008 were at least understandable because it was head coach Bo Pelini's first season and he was trying to wash away the wreckage of the Bill Callahan years. This is 2011. The players have recruited and shaped by Pelini.

As I was watching the game, I exchanged text messages with a few friends. Two of them (Jason Page and Matt Johns) are former college classmates of mine. The other (Will Densberger) is a former work source whom I consider a friend from the Napa Valley. We were commiserating over everything from quarterback Taylor Martinez's inbility to read defenses to offensive coordinator Tim Beck's Shawn Watson-like play-calling to the defense offering very little resistence.

Therein, should lie the reason the Huskers were outplayed and outcoached. When a team gets beat 48-17, no one side of the ball is any more or less to blame than the other. It means, you stunk on both sides of the all. OK, if you really want to stretch, Nebraska had the special teams edge with Kenny Bell's recovered fumble on a punt, Jared Crick's blocked extra point and Ameer Abdullah's 26.7 yard average on seven kickoff returns. However, what does that matter in a 31-point loss.

On offense, two things are equally true. Calling for 11 straight pass plays at one point in the first half while running back Rex Burkhead just six times in the first half is inexcusable. When you run the option, the pass can set up the run as well as compliment it but the run is the staple of the offense. However, on Martinez's three interceptions, his reads would have been bad if he were a high school JV quarterback.

There were two instances where Martinez threw incomplete passes that were deep when he had an intermediate receiver wide open. Again, that's not a hard read to make. Martinez had it predetermined on both plays that he was throwing it deep. I'm all for taking shots dpwnfield to soften up the defense but when there are two defenders around the deep receiver and none around the intermediate guy, that has nothing tto do with play callng. His interception to linebacker Mike Taylor was a result of throwing late over the middle. I don't give a damn what level of football you are at or what play is being called, it's a cardinal rule that throwing late over the middle gets you in trouble. On his interception to cornerback Antonio Fenelus, the pass was a 12-yard out intended for Quincy Enunwa. Martinez rolled right. He could run for at least eight yards or complete a short pass to Burkhead for at least that many but he threw into traffic.

While Martinez made his share of bad reads, the offense needs to get Burkhead more involved in the offense if they want to compete in the Big Ten Conference. The offensive line played well at times but still made mental mistakes by committing foolish false start penalties. I do think the offensive line is moving in the right direction. At the beginning of the season the offensive line was the weak point of the offense. I would consider them more of a strength of the offense than a weakness right now.

If it's possible, Nebraska looked even worse defensively. The Huskers had no answer at all for Wisconsin's ellusive quarterback Russell Wilson. I shudder to think what Michigan's Dennard Robinson will do to the Huskers on Nov. 19. Wisconsin ended the game with 484 yards total offense. That is not going to get it done in a good BCS Conference.

Nebraska played well at times with their front four on defense early in the game but the defense got tired in the second half.

Nebraska’s secondary is a work in progress. Nebraska rotated players in and out of the lineup the entire game but couldn’t come up with a combination that worked. Nebraska allowed 255 yards passing. The secondary will continue to be a problem for Nebraska. Yes, it's nice to have cornack Alfonzo Dennard back in the lineup but teams will not throw his way because they don't have to do so.

Most people said they would know where Nebraska stood after the Wisconsin game. What we know is: Nebraska is not a top ten team; they have a ways to go before they are, and their dreams of a Big Ten Conference title in their inaugural season may be far-fetched.

Nebraska started the game well but was quickly taken out of their game plan and had no answer to the Wisconsin offense.

Nebraska will be a competitive team in the Big Ten, but it's hard to envision them being the top team in the conference. Next week Nebraska will host Ohio State. The Buckeyes are closer to the level that Nebraska is at right now. It will be a good game between the Cornhuskers and Buckeyes next week.

Believe it or not, Huskers have a few edges on the Badgers

Much of the focus of Saturday's football matchup between No. 8 Nebraska and No. 7 Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium is centered around the historical significance of the Huskers making their Big Ten debut.


With the Big Ten now containing 12 teams, the conference has two divisions (Leaders and Legends). Most people favor Wisconsin to win the Leaders and Nebraska to win the Legends so this could be the first of two meetings if all goes according to plan.

Everyone from Las Vegas oddsmakers, media and message board posters have picked the Badgers to win Saturday's game. Wisconsin is a 10 point favorite as of late Thursday night.

Wisconsin's status as the favorite is understandable for three reasons: a) They are playing at home and Camp Randall Stadium is a notoriously hostile environment for visiting teams and b) the Badgers have beaten their first four opponents by a combined score of 204-34 and c) while Nebraska is 4-0 like Wisconsin they have outscored their opponents by a combined 171-88.



However, there are a few advantages that Nebraska has that very few people have taken into account.

At quarterback, Wisconsin would appear to have the edge with senior Russell Wilson over Nebraska sophomore Taylor Martinez. Wilson transfered from North Carolina State, where he played football and baseball and was the ACC Rookie of the Year. Wilson has been nothing short of spectacular in completing 69 of 91 passes for 1,136 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed 16 times for 108 yards and a score.

Martinez's passing numbers have not been spectacular as he has completed 43 of 85 tosses for 647 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. On the rushing side, he has 471 yards on 63 carries and seven touchdowns. Most importantly, his decision making and leadership, while not perfect, have improved.

While Wilson is more experienced and has the statistical advantage, in an odd sort of way, Martinez has an advantage because of his experience as starting quarterback in big games. Being the starting quarterback at Nebraska alone makes for a trial by fire because of the legacy the program has at that position such as Turner Gill, Tommie Frazier, Scott Frost and Eric Crouch. When you start as a freshman (especially quarterback) at Nebraska, you are instantly under a microscope.

Yes, Wilson shined at NC State but you simply cannot compare the pressure that a Wolfpack quarterback faces versus that of a Nebraska signal-caller. Being Wisconsin's starting QB comes with its challenges but for Wilson they haven't come in the first four games.

Martinez, meanwhile has played in four network-televised games against ranked opponents, with one being the Big 12 Conference Championship game last season.

Another edge that bodes well for Nebraska is that while the Badgers have bee very impressive on defense, the times opposing offenses have been successful is against Wisconsin's speed on the edge. Well, lack of would be a better description.

The Badgers will undoubtedly try to stack the line of scrimmage and dare Martinez to beat them with his arm. However, that does not mean that the Huskers will run the ball less. It will probably mean more sweeps, options and horizontal passes to make Wisconsin defend horizontally as well as vertically.

It also means we will likely see running back Rex Burkhead run more thann his share of Wildcat plays like last week against Wyoming.

Switching gears, while the Nebraska defense came in celebrated and hyped, the Huskers have been shockingly mediocre on that side of the ball. However, t should also be pointed out that defensive tackle Jared Crick, linebacker LaVonte David and cornerback Alfonzo Dennard have not been on the field at the same time all season. Crick sat out last week's 38-14 win over Wyoming with a concussion. Dennard returned to the lineup last week after nursing a quad injury for the first three games.

All three are expected to be in the lineup Saturday, which means Nebraska has playmakers at every level of its defense.

That means head coach Bo Pelini will not be as limited in how much of his scheme he can use. Therefore, he can throw more confusing looks with all three players in the lineup.