College football bye weeks are a good time for a few things as it pertains to fans: getting chores down around the house, watching other college football games or doing something with your family.
I definitely didn't get any chores done so mowing the lawn will have to wait. I watched a smattering of a few games but spent most of the day on an outing with my wife and kids. However, as I was taking a nap on the way home while my wife drove (I was in too altered of a state to drive), I was thinking about how Nebraska's season has transpired to this point and will potentiall take place the remainder of the 2011 season.
The Huskers, who are ranked No. 14 in the Associated Press poll, resume action Saturday at Minnesota. The fact that Nebraska s 5-1 is no surprise. Seriously? When you were sitting around the barbeque this summer that's probably what you would have projected the Huskers' record to be after six games. The process of getting to 5-1, however, has been the furthest from what most projected.
The Huskers entered the bye week with the confluence of extremes. First, there was the embarassing 48-17 loss at Wisconsin. One week later against a struggling Ohio State team, Nebraska rallied from a 27-6 mid third quarter deficit to beat the Buckeyes 34-27. Those struggles in that game, however, do not look so bad today as the Buckeyes (4-3 overall, 1-2 Big Ten) beat No. 16 Illinois 17-7 on the road Saturday. What is that game more reflective of? Is Illinois, who very few people took seriously before the season, just a figment of our imagination? Or is Ohio State simply a troubled program that is still dangerous on a given day? The wait and see approach will be the best answer.
This is probably the most confusing Nebraska team in recent history. The offense that everyone questioned before the season is now viewed by many as the team's strength. Sure the unit laid a giant at Wisconsin but in general first year coordinator Tim Beck has pushed all of the right buttons and the young Nebraska offensive line, which was viewed as a question mark before the season, has been a team strength. So far the play of quarterback Taylor Martinez warrants a solid B. I know, it kills the anti-Martinez crowd to hear this but I'll say it anyhow. I'm not saying I think Martinez is Joe Montana but I have a sadistic pleasure in tweaking the anti-Martinez crowd.
The defense was expected to be a strength but is now a liability. With the exception of linebacker LaVonte David, none of the starters have lived up to their preseason billing. In fact, if the offense was not playing at its current level, the Huskers could very easily be 2-4. Losing cornerback Prince Amukamara to graduation was a tough blow and defensive tackle Jared Crick (torn pectoral muscle) is out for the season. Granted, Crick's peformance had been a disappointment but he still provided a presence. The defense's biggest disappointment is tackling and third down conversions. In the latter category, the Huskers rank 94th nationally, Those two areas must get better or there will be a few more disappointming Saturdays (win or lose).
Looking ahead at the rest of the regular season: The Huskers begin the second half at Minnesota (1-5 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) Friday, home against No. 23 Michigan State (5-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Oct. 29; home against Northwestern (2-4 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) on Nov. 5, at Penn State (6-1 overall, 3-0 Big Ten) on Nov. 12, at No. 11 Michigan (6-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Nov. 19 and home against Iowa (4-2 overall, 1-1 Big Ten).
Just a gut feeling but I think Minnesota and Northwestern are definite wins while the games against Michigan State, Michgan, Iowa and Penn State will be the swing games.
Minnesota is in disarray. Yes, they battled hard at USC before losing 19-17 but it's not as if Carson Palmer, Matt Leinert or Reggie Bush suited up. The Gophers also have a bye but have been outscored by their last two foes (Michigan and Purdue) 103-17.
Northwestern, which has lost four straight since starting 2-0, isn't off the charts terrible as three of their losses are by ten points or less but 2-4 teams are usually 2-4 for a reason. They make enough mistakes to get beat.
As for the swing games, Iowa has easiest remaining schedule as two of the Hawkeyes' four toughest games will be in Iowa City -- Michigan on Nov. 5 and Michigan State on Nov. 12. However, for every big effort their offense has like Saturday in a 41-31 win over Northwestern they come up small like they did in a 13-3 loss at Penn State.
Michigan State is stout defensively. The Spartans entered Saturday's home game against Michigan leading the nation in total defense, allowing only 173.4 yards per game, and rank third in points allowed (10.2).
With Michigan, you have a quarterback in Denard Robinson who is Martinez's equal if not superior in generating big plays. Robinson was the 2010 Big Ten offensive player of the year, entered Saturday's game at Michigan State leading the Big Ten in rushing (120.0 yards per game) and total offense (308.3). The Wolverines were notorious for fast starts but fading finishes under former head coach Rich Rodriguez but under Brady Hoke, this group appears suited for the long haul.
Penn State's offense has been suspect but their defense has done a lot of heavy lifting. Gee whizz, Husker fans can relate to that from 2009.
When the Huskers went 5-7 in the 2007 Bill Callahan distaster, I preached very strongly that 8-4 is the worst Nebraska should ever be. Let's say Nebraska win the Minnesota and Northwestern game. If they do that, I think at worst the Huskers get at least one of the swing games if not two or three.
Showing posts with label Iowa State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa State. Show all posts
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Friday, October 7, 2011
Using the past to predict the future
If there is one thing that Nebraska football fans are guilty of -- it's using the past to predict the future.
OK, I get it, "If you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it." Just the other day, I reacted http://napavince.blogspot.com/2011/10/husker-season-at-crossroad.html to Dirk Chatelain's Omaha World Herald blog: http://sports.omaha.com/2011/10/05/dirks-brunch-bites-oct-5/ comparing the aftermath of the Huskers 49-31 home loss to USC in 2007 to the ramifications of the team's 48-17 road loss to Wisconsin Saturday. Chatelain essentially said how "this feels like 2007 all over again?" If you feel like reliving that nightmare, Nebraska was 4-1 that season and imploded by losing six of its last seven games to go 5-7, which ultimately cost head coach Bill Callahan his job.
Maybe the 2011 Huskers became the 2007 Huskers again but I seriously doubt it. Are the 2011 Huskers great? No. I'd say Top 15 material but closer to 15 than one.
The only true parallel I see is this, 2007 was Callahan's fourth season and 2011 is Bo Pelini's fourth campaign. Losses like 2007 to USC and Wisconsin in 2011 were supposed to be a thing of the past in their respective tenures.
Suffice it to say, the 2011 season is at a crossroad for the 4-1 and No. 14 rated Huskers. However, the opportunity to right the ship the next two weeks is a very realistic proposition. This week, you have a troubled 3-2 Ohio State team coming to town that lost 10-7 at home too Michigan State. Ohio State's defense has looked pretty stellar so far. Nebraska's one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the ball against the Buckeyes, but the good news is that Ohio State can barely do anything on offense to counter. The onus falls on the Husker offense and special teams not to give the Buckeyes a short field.
After the home game against Ohio State, Nebraska has a bye so if the Huskers can win this game and go to 5-1 at the midpoint of the season, that is not so bad.
Let's face it, when using the past to redict the future, you simply cannot factor in anything that took place before Bo Pelini was the head coach. Seriously? The only coacing link Nebraska has to the pre-Pelini years is running backs coach Ron Brown. Well, I guess you could say many of the cureent seniors were redshirt freshman during the 2007 implosion but even using that angle to predict the future is a reach.
Based on the Pelini years, the odds favor the Huskers to rebound. The true mark of good leadership is how a team bounces back one week after losing a game. You can't really count a season ending bowl game loss because a team changes a lot dues to graduation losses from one season to the next.
Under Pelini, the Huskers are 7-4 but two of those losses were by a touchdown or less. Nebraska's late season fade in 2010 is definitely a strike against Pelini. The Huskers were 9-1 only to close the year with three losses in their last four games but his 2008 and 2009 seasons are evidence that he knows how to circle the wagons. In 2008, the Huskers lost three straight (two by less than a TD) to fall to 3-3. The team rebounded to win six of its last seven including a season-ending 26-21 Gator Bowl win over Clemson to finish 9-4.
In 2009, Nebraska started 4-1 but losses to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7) dropped the team to 4-3. Simply getting to bowl eligible status looked like a chore. The Huskers again finished the season with six wins in their last seven contests including a 33-0 drubbing over Arizona in the Holiday Bowl to go 10-4.
Under Callahan, the team went 7-10 after a loss with five of them coming by three touchdowns or more.
OK, I get it, "If you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it." Just the other day, I reacted http://napavince.blogspot.com/2011/10/husker-season-at-crossroad.html to Dirk Chatelain's Omaha World Herald blog: http://sports.omaha.com/2011/10/05/dirks-brunch-bites-oct-5/ comparing the aftermath of the Huskers 49-31 home loss to USC in 2007 to the ramifications of the team's 48-17 road loss to Wisconsin Saturday. Chatelain essentially said how "this feels like 2007 all over again?" If you feel like reliving that nightmare, Nebraska was 4-1 that season and imploded by losing six of its last seven games to go 5-7, which ultimately cost head coach Bill Callahan his job.
Maybe the 2011 Huskers became the 2007 Huskers again but I seriously doubt it. Are the 2011 Huskers great? No. I'd say Top 15 material but closer to 15 than one.
The only true parallel I see is this, 2007 was Callahan's fourth season and 2011 is Bo Pelini's fourth campaign. Losses like 2007 to USC and Wisconsin in 2011 were supposed to be a thing of the past in their respective tenures.
Suffice it to say, the 2011 season is at a crossroad for the 4-1 and No. 14 rated Huskers. However, the opportunity to right the ship the next two weeks is a very realistic proposition. This week, you have a troubled 3-2 Ohio State team coming to town that lost 10-7 at home too Michigan State. Ohio State's defense has looked pretty stellar so far. Nebraska's one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the ball against the Buckeyes, but the good news is that Ohio State can barely do anything on offense to counter. The onus falls on the Husker offense and special teams not to give the Buckeyes a short field.
After the home game against Ohio State, Nebraska has a bye so if the Huskers can win this game and go to 5-1 at the midpoint of the season, that is not so bad.
Let's face it, when using the past to redict the future, you simply cannot factor in anything that took place before Bo Pelini was the head coach. Seriously? The only coacing link Nebraska has to the pre-Pelini years is running backs coach Ron Brown. Well, I guess you could say many of the cureent seniors were redshirt freshman during the 2007 implosion but even using that angle to predict the future is a reach.
Based on the Pelini years, the odds favor the Huskers to rebound. The true mark of good leadership is how a team bounces back one week after losing a game. You can't really count a season ending bowl game loss because a team changes a lot dues to graduation losses from one season to the next.
Under Pelini, the Huskers are 7-4 but two of those losses were by a touchdown or less. Nebraska's late season fade in 2010 is definitely a strike against Pelini. The Huskers were 9-1 only to close the year with three losses in their last four games but his 2008 and 2009 seasons are evidence that he knows how to circle the wagons. In 2008, the Huskers lost three straight (two by less than a TD) to fall to 3-3. The team rebounded to win six of its last seven including a season-ending 26-21 Gator Bowl win over Clemson to finish 9-4.
In 2009, Nebraska started 4-1 but losses to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7) dropped the team to 4-3. Simply getting to bowl eligible status looked like a chore. The Huskers again finished the season with six wins in their last seven contests including a 33-0 drubbing over Arizona in the Holiday Bowl to go 10-4.
Under Callahan, the team went 7-10 after a loss with five of them coming by three touchdowns or more.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Gauging Nebraska's Big 10 rivalry radar
The term “dog days of summer” is normally associated with Major League Baseball pennant races but it can apply to college football too.
Sure teams around the country are in full swing with official fall practice schedules but let’s face it, the real fun starts with the opening kickoff of the first game. In Nebraska’s case that would be Sept. 3 against Tennessee-Chattanooga.
However, just to kill some time, the question begs, which Big 10 team has the greatest potential to be Nebraska’s rival? Keep in mind, the Huskers enter their first Big 10 season but rivalries don’t just happen, they develop over time.
When I think of rivalry, I mostly think of a few things: a) There is definite polarization as in there’s no way in hell you could root for the other team, b) The game usually means something when the two teams play, c) Fans will watch the game even if they don’t care about either team and d) The game carries equal meaning for BOTH teams.
Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma and others fit that description. OK, sure, you can say Harvard-Yale but how many people are going to drop whatever they are doing to watch that game?
For years, Nebraska was rivals with Oklahoma. The interesting thing is that OU has generally considered Texas its biggest rival but Nebraska-Oklahoma was the traditional game that took place the day after Thanksgiving. Plus, both teams were good at the same time for many years, combining for 12 National Championship (OU has seven, NU has five) and dominated the Big Eight conference, which later expanded to the Big 12.
With that expansion, both teams played each other two years out of every four since Nebraska is in the Big 12 North and Oklahoma is in the Big 12 South. Since 1993, the two clubs have only share three good seasons (2001, 2010 and to a lesser extent 2006). The two teams met in the Big 12 title game in 2006 and 2010. OU suffered some fallow years from 1994-1998 before Bob Stoops arrived to resurrect the program. Nebraska suffered mostly subpar years from 2002-2007 but appears to be on its way back to prominence under Bo Pelini.
Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri had elements of the notion “rivalry” with Nebraska the last 15 or so years as the meetings have been testy at times. Bill McCartney was known for “red lettering” Nebraska on the schedule but a large segment of Husker fans even to this day did not consider it a rivalry. Colorado is now a member of the Pac 12.
So now that Nebraska has vacated the Big 12, which team will become its biggest rival? On paper most would say that Ohio State because of their recent conference dominance and the fact that Pelini played there in the 1980s. However, the two programs have very little history against each other, having played head-to-head just twice and those meetings came in 1955 and 1956.
You could make an argument for Michigan because of the recent history involving Nebraska’s 2005 Alamo Bowl 32-28 win tha represented the height of the Bill Callahan era and split 1997 national championship. The Wolverines have been in a downslide in going 15-22 the last three years after the ill-fated move of firing head coach Lloyd Carr and replacing him with Rich Rodriguez. Brady Hoke was hired to replace the since fired Rodriguez. However, Michigan is ot going to stay irrelevant forever.
Penn State has possibilities for the Huskers being rivals with because the two teams share some nonconference history. Remember 1982 in Happy Valley when Nebraska fought back from a 21-7 deficit and finally pulled into the lead on an 80 yard drive with 1:18 remaining? Yet, the Nittany Lions drove right back and handed the Cornhuskers their first and only loss of the season when Penn State completed a controversial pass deep into Nebraska’s end zone with just four seconds left on the clock. Penn State tight end Mike McCloskey, who was the receiver of the game winning catch, admitted he was out of bounds on the play and should have been ruled ineligible 16 years later. If the catch had been flagged properly, Nebraska’s position for National championship consideration would have been much stronger.
Then there was 1994 when both teams were unbeaten but Nebraska was voted National Champion in both the AP and coaches poll. Keep in mind, Penn State’s move to the Big 10 prevent both teams from playing each other because at the time the Big 10 and Pac 10 champion was automatically tied to the Rose Bowl. However, it should also be noted that Nebraska beat two top five teams (Colorado and Miami) while Penn State did not. The two teams also played a home-and-home series in 2002 and 2003.
Wisconsin and Nebraska have the geographic proximity and similar color scheme (red) to be rivals. The Badgers were the most aggressive, at least publicly, as head coach Bret Bielema contacted the Big Ten office about scheduling an end-of-year series with Nebraska just hours after the Huskers were voted into the league. ESPN.com quoted Bielema as saying: “With Coach (Tom) Osborne’s and Coach (Barry) Alvarez’s history, maybe we can start a little trophy game. Call it the Alvaborn Cup or something like that. We don’t have a season-ending finale game, so maybe we can start a tradition here.”
Osborne and Alvarez are both former head coaches turned athletic directors at Nebraska and Wisconsin respectively. Alvarez also played linebacker for Nebraska in 1960s. Wisconsin could use a regular rival on the final Saturday of the season, now that the Minnesota game has been moved earlier as opposed to the day after Thanksgiving.
Speaking of which, Nebraska will play Iowa the day after Thanksgiving in what will be called the Heroes Game. The two teams have played each other 40 times, however, all but five came in the pre-Bob Devaney era (1960).
The two states are neighboring and there is a genuine dislike between the two fans bases but this series, to me, is more of Iowa being the new Colorado in that the Hawkeye fans view as a rivalry more so than Nebraska.
Former Colorado football coach Bill McCartney made Nebraska the Buffaloes’ “red-letter game,” thus from Colorado’s perspective, igniting the rivalry. The Huskers, who routinely throttled Colorado home and away, considered Oklahoma its rival. The Huskers and Sooners, after all, usually settled the Big Eight championship with their game at the end of November.
Essentially, I view Iowa as the new Colorado. However, it will be different in this way, while CU would only occassionaly win the game and was thus not a real rival, Iowa’s rivalry will be tied to how close Nebraska is to them. Yes, Nebraska boarders Colorado but Boulder seemed light years away from Lincoln. Nebraska shares the Missouri River with Iowa and there are major metro areas on each side and more natural competition for fan support. So, Iowa seems much more natural then CU ever was as a rival.
Sure teams around the country are in full swing with official fall practice schedules but let’s face it, the real fun starts with the opening kickoff of the first game. In Nebraska’s case that would be Sept. 3 against Tennessee-Chattanooga.
However, just to kill some time, the question begs, which Big 10 team has the greatest potential to be Nebraska’s rival? Keep in mind, the Huskers enter their first Big 10 season but rivalries don’t just happen, they develop over time.
When I think of rivalry, I mostly think of a few things: a) There is definite polarization as in there’s no way in hell you could root for the other team, b) The game usually means something when the two teams play, c) Fans will watch the game even if they don’t care about either team and d) The game carries equal meaning for BOTH teams.
Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma and others fit that description. OK, sure, you can say Harvard-Yale but how many people are going to drop whatever they are doing to watch that game?
For years, Nebraska was rivals with Oklahoma. The interesting thing is that OU has generally considered Texas its biggest rival but Nebraska-Oklahoma was the traditional game that took place the day after Thanksgiving. Plus, both teams were good at the same time for many years, combining for 12 National Championship (OU has seven, NU has five) and dominated the Big Eight conference, which later expanded to the Big 12.
With that expansion, both teams played each other two years out of every four since Nebraska is in the Big 12 North and Oklahoma is in the Big 12 South. Since 1993, the two clubs have only share three good seasons (2001, 2010 and to a lesser extent 2006). The two teams met in the Big 12 title game in 2006 and 2010. OU suffered some fallow years from 1994-1998 before Bob Stoops arrived to resurrect the program. Nebraska suffered mostly subpar years from 2002-2007 but appears to be on its way back to prominence under Bo Pelini.
Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri had elements of the notion “rivalry” with Nebraska the last 15 or so years as the meetings have been testy at times. Bill McCartney was known for “red lettering” Nebraska on the schedule but a large segment of Husker fans even to this day did not consider it a rivalry. Colorado is now a member of the Pac 12.
So now that Nebraska has vacated the Big 12, which team will become its biggest rival? On paper most would say that Ohio State because of their recent conference dominance and the fact that Pelini played there in the 1980s. However, the two programs have very little history against each other, having played head-to-head just twice and those meetings came in 1955 and 1956.
You could make an argument for Michigan because of the recent history involving Nebraska’s 2005 Alamo Bowl 32-28 win tha represented the height of the Bill Callahan era and split 1997 national championship. The Wolverines have been in a downslide in going 15-22 the last three years after the ill-fated move of firing head coach Lloyd Carr and replacing him with Rich Rodriguez. Brady Hoke was hired to replace the since fired Rodriguez. However, Michigan is ot going to stay irrelevant forever.
Penn State has possibilities for the Huskers being rivals with because the two teams share some nonconference history. Remember 1982 in Happy Valley when Nebraska fought back from a 21-7 deficit and finally pulled into the lead on an 80 yard drive with 1:18 remaining? Yet, the Nittany Lions drove right back and handed the Cornhuskers their first and only loss of the season when Penn State completed a controversial pass deep into Nebraska’s end zone with just four seconds left on the clock. Penn State tight end Mike McCloskey, who was the receiver of the game winning catch, admitted he was out of bounds on the play and should have been ruled ineligible 16 years later. If the catch had been flagged properly, Nebraska’s position for National championship consideration would have been much stronger.
Then there was 1994 when both teams were unbeaten but Nebraska was voted National Champion in both the AP and coaches poll. Keep in mind, Penn State’s move to the Big 10 prevent both teams from playing each other because at the time the Big 10 and Pac 10 champion was automatically tied to the Rose Bowl. However, it should also be noted that Nebraska beat two top five teams (Colorado and Miami) while Penn State did not. The two teams also played a home-and-home series in 2002 and 2003.
Wisconsin and Nebraska have the geographic proximity and similar color scheme (red) to be rivals. The Badgers were the most aggressive, at least publicly, as head coach Bret Bielema contacted the Big Ten office about scheduling an end-of-year series with Nebraska just hours after the Huskers were voted into the league. ESPN.com quoted Bielema as saying: “With Coach (Tom) Osborne’s and Coach (Barry) Alvarez’s history, maybe we can start a little trophy game. Call it the Alvaborn Cup or something like that. We don’t have a season-ending finale game, so maybe we can start a tradition here.”
Osborne and Alvarez are both former head coaches turned athletic directors at Nebraska and Wisconsin respectively. Alvarez also played linebacker for Nebraska in 1960s. Wisconsin could use a regular rival on the final Saturday of the season, now that the Minnesota game has been moved earlier as opposed to the day after Thanksgiving.
Speaking of which, Nebraska will play Iowa the day after Thanksgiving in what will be called the Heroes Game. The two teams have played each other 40 times, however, all but five came in the pre-Bob Devaney era (1960).
The two states are neighboring and there is a genuine dislike between the two fans bases but this series, to me, is more of Iowa being the new Colorado in that the Hawkeye fans view as a rivalry more so than Nebraska.
Former Colorado football coach Bill McCartney made Nebraska the Buffaloes’ “red-letter game,” thus from Colorado’s perspective, igniting the rivalry. The Huskers, who routinely throttled Colorado home and away, considered Oklahoma its rival. The Huskers and Sooners, after all, usually settled the Big Eight championship with their game at the end of November.
Essentially, I view Iowa as the new Colorado. However, it will be different in this way, while CU would only occassionaly win the game and was thus not a real rival, Iowa’s rivalry will be tied to how close Nebraska is to them. Yes, Nebraska boarders Colorado but Boulder seemed light years away from Lincoln. Nebraska shares the Missouri River with Iowa and there are major metro areas on each side and more natural competition for fan support. So, Iowa seems much more natural then CU ever was as a rival.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Sizing up the rest of the season in blackjack terms
Preseason predictions by game are always compelling if not conjecture. Well, I contributed to such a matter back in June: http://napavince.blogspot.com/2009/06/2009-nebraska-football-game-by-game.html
As I expected, Nebraska stands at 3-1, predicting relatively easy wins over Florida Atlantic (49-3), Arkansas State (38-9) and Louisiana-Lafayette (55-0) along with a close loss to Virginia Tech (16-15). Of course, who could have predicted the defeat at Virginia Tech to be of such heart-breaking proportions.
The Huskers enjoy a bye this week entering their Oct. 8 Thursday night ESPN telecast at Missouri. Faurot Field has been a house of horrors lately for Nebraska, which has given up 41 points in each of the last three head-to-head meetings in Columbia, Mo. And has not won their since 2001.
Excluding any Big 12 championship or bowl games, most people tabbed Nebraska as 8-4 on the low end and 10-2 on the high end. Our minds might change of course but we size up the Huskers remaining games and their chances for victory in blackjack terms:
Oct. 8 at Missouri:
Victory odds: No worse than even money.
The Tigers are 4-0 but it’s also a soft 4-0. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, everyone’s favorite in Nebraska for de-committing two years ago, has looked very good but the Tigers ground game and run defense are less than stellar. Mizzu also struggled to put away Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Whoever is favored will be a slight one.
Oct. 17 vs. Texas Tech
Victory odds: No worse even money.
The Red Raiders are not the juggernaut they were last season, and keep in mind Nebraska was a desperation Joe Ganz interception away from pulling off the upset in Lubbock in a 37-31 overtime loss. Texas Tech might not be offensive machine it normally is but they are still like a fast break basketball team that needs to be lured into a halfcourt game.
Oct. 24 vs. Iowa State
Victory odds: Blackjack
The Cyclones are 3-1 but got hammered 35-3 by instate rival Iowa, the only team Iowa State has played with a pulse. There’s a good chance the Cyclones won’t win a game the rest of the way. OK, at best they win one or two but don’t count on it happening in Lincoln.
Oct. 31 at Baylor
Victory odds: Blackjack
With quarterback Robert Griffin healthy, Nebraska had about a 65 percent to win. With Griffin on the shelf the rest of the season with a knee injury, the Huskers victory chances go up to about 85 percent. The Bears have been overmatched since entering the Big XII in 1996 but were viewed by some prognosticators as a “bowl eligible candidate but seriously, even with Griffin who else were they going to beat in Big XII besides Iowa State?
Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma
Victory odds: Likely dealer win
The Sooners have shown no shortage of resilience since falling 14-13 to BYU in a game that saw quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford sustain a broken collar-bone. OU has since rebounded to defeat Idaho State (64-0) and Tulsa (45-0) with backup Landry Jones at the helm. The Sooners will probably face a pretty pissed off Miami team. Keep in mind, the overhyped Hurricanes got taken to the woodshed with a 31-10 loss at Virginia Tech Saturday. Bradford might be back by the time OU comes to Lincoln but even without him, the Sooners will be tough to beat.
Nov. 14 at Kansas
Victory odds: No worse than even money
This game will have plenty of Big XII North implications. The Jayhawks are 4-0 and faced their first true test last week at home against Southern Mississippi. Kansas did not pass with flying colors but a 35-28 win against a good Conference USA team is nothing to scoff about. KU will be a tough out as long as Mark Mangino is the coach but Nebraska does have a talent advantage not to mention equal if not superior coaching with Bo Pelini.
Nov. 21 vs. Kansas State
Victory odds: Blackjack
The Wildcats are showing far greater signs of life in Bill Snyder the Sequel than they did under Ron Prince but let’s face it, this is a reclamation project. If K-State lost 73-31 to a down and out Nebraska team in 2007 what makes you think they’ll beat what figures to a Husker team that is getting better at this stage of the season.
Nov. 27 at Colorado
Victory odds: No worse than even money
I know most Husker fans are thinking this game is a slamdunk and that it’s not a rivalry. Unfortunately, the latter misses the point. Nebraska has won the majority of head-to-head contests but very few have been blowouts.
CONCLUSION
With Pelini’s coaching staff, Nebraska will occasionally win a game you don’t think it’ll win. They’ll rarely if ever loss a game that looks like a slamdunk to win. They’ll win no worse than half of their bubble games.
A 9-3 regular season looks like a pretty solid bet.
As I expected, Nebraska stands at 3-1, predicting relatively easy wins over Florida Atlantic (49-3), Arkansas State (38-9) and Louisiana-Lafayette (55-0) along with a close loss to Virginia Tech (16-15). Of course, who could have predicted the defeat at Virginia Tech to be of such heart-breaking proportions.
The Huskers enjoy a bye this week entering their Oct. 8 Thursday night ESPN telecast at Missouri. Faurot Field has been a house of horrors lately for Nebraska, which has given up 41 points in each of the last three head-to-head meetings in Columbia, Mo. And has not won their since 2001.
Excluding any Big 12 championship or bowl games, most people tabbed Nebraska as 8-4 on the low end and 10-2 on the high end. Our minds might change of course but we size up the Huskers remaining games and their chances for victory in blackjack terms:
Oct. 8 at Missouri:
Victory odds: No worse than even money.
The Tigers are 4-0 but it’s also a soft 4-0. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, everyone’s favorite in Nebraska for de-committing two years ago, has looked very good but the Tigers ground game and run defense are less than stellar. Mizzu also struggled to put away Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Whoever is favored will be a slight one.
Oct. 17 vs. Texas Tech
Victory odds: No worse even money.
The Red Raiders are not the juggernaut they were last season, and keep in mind Nebraska was a desperation Joe Ganz interception away from pulling off the upset in Lubbock in a 37-31 overtime loss. Texas Tech might not be offensive machine it normally is but they are still like a fast break basketball team that needs to be lured into a halfcourt game.
Oct. 24 vs. Iowa State
Victory odds: Blackjack
The Cyclones are 3-1 but got hammered 35-3 by instate rival Iowa, the only team Iowa State has played with a pulse. There’s a good chance the Cyclones won’t win a game the rest of the way. OK, at best they win one or two but don’t count on it happening in Lincoln.
Oct. 31 at Baylor
Victory odds: Blackjack
With quarterback Robert Griffin healthy, Nebraska had about a 65 percent to win. With Griffin on the shelf the rest of the season with a knee injury, the Huskers victory chances go up to about 85 percent. The Bears have been overmatched since entering the Big XII in 1996 but were viewed by some prognosticators as a “bowl eligible candidate but seriously, even with Griffin who else were they going to beat in Big XII besides Iowa State?
Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma
Victory odds: Likely dealer win
The Sooners have shown no shortage of resilience since falling 14-13 to BYU in a game that saw quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford sustain a broken collar-bone. OU has since rebounded to defeat Idaho State (64-0) and Tulsa (45-0) with backup Landry Jones at the helm. The Sooners will probably face a pretty pissed off Miami team. Keep in mind, the overhyped Hurricanes got taken to the woodshed with a 31-10 loss at Virginia Tech Saturday. Bradford might be back by the time OU comes to Lincoln but even without him, the Sooners will be tough to beat.
Nov. 14 at Kansas
Victory odds: No worse than even money
This game will have plenty of Big XII North implications. The Jayhawks are 4-0 and faced their first true test last week at home against Southern Mississippi. Kansas did not pass with flying colors but a 35-28 win against a good Conference USA team is nothing to scoff about. KU will be a tough out as long as Mark Mangino is the coach but Nebraska does have a talent advantage not to mention equal if not superior coaching with Bo Pelini.
Nov. 21 vs. Kansas State
Victory odds: Blackjack
The Wildcats are showing far greater signs of life in Bill Snyder the Sequel than they did under Ron Prince but let’s face it, this is a reclamation project. If K-State lost 73-31 to a down and out Nebraska team in 2007 what makes you think they’ll beat what figures to a Husker team that is getting better at this stage of the season.
Nov. 27 at Colorado
Victory odds: No worse than even money
I know most Husker fans are thinking this game is a slamdunk and that it’s not a rivalry. Unfortunately, the latter misses the point. Nebraska has won the majority of head-to-head contests but very few have been blowouts.
CONCLUSION
With Pelini’s coaching staff, Nebraska will occasionally win a game you don’t think it’ll win. They’ll rarely if ever loss a game that looks like a slamdunk to win. They’ll win no worse than half of their bubble games.
A 9-3 regular season looks like a pretty solid bet.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Despite inexperience at QB, Huskers serious Big 12 North contender
The opening game for Nebraska football might be four months and change away but listening to some so-called experts and reading message boards, the Huskers inexperience at quarterback is supposed to be the biggest obstacle that could prevent the team from winning the Big 12 North title.
Not to sound like a Kool-Aid sipper because there’s only so much you can read into spring practices but I'm pretty optimistic because the impression you get from Bo Pelini and staff is that no matter who plays, the coaching staff will get the most out of them. That includes the quarterback position.
Just a few weeks ago, I blogged in this space that getting to the Big 12 title game will be the easy part. Winning it will be the hard part.
NU has a great shot at winning the Big 12 North in 2009. In the interest of “process of elimination,” forget Iowa State and Kansas State. Both have new coaches and a truckload of question marks.
Missouri, which has won the division the past two seasons, is likely to come crashing back to Earth after losing Chase Coffman, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Daniel. The Tiger defense is about as soggy as a wet noodle. Keep in mind, with the great talent Mizzu had, it flat lined in the second half of the season. The Tigers looked unstoppable in starting 5-0 but looked pretty ordinary in going 5-4 the rest of the way. Missouri's schedule is favorable enough that they will be able to stay in the hunt. Nebraska has the more difficult schedule, but has talent, depth, and experience at several critical areas. Kansas and Nebraska will be the front-runners for the North title and the game in Lawrence will be huge. Nebraska's defense should be improved over last season and the return of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was a bigger development than any recruit we signed last season.
The lazy analyst will point to their returning quarterback and wide receivers and think that will be enough. However, Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe, and Derek Meier all had monster numbers in 2008 yet only managed to go 4-4 in Big 12. Why will 2009 be any different - especially considering the losses they suffered at other positions?
Colorado might be the wild card of the much. Because the Buffaloes had so many injuries in a 5-7 season, it’s hard to truly evaluate them objectively. Those injuries allowed several youngsters to get playing time but CU goes 9-3 at best in 2009 but 7-5 is more likely.
Not to sound like a Kool-Aid sipper because there’s only so much you can read into spring practices but I'm pretty optimistic because the impression you get from Bo Pelini and staff is that no matter who plays, the coaching staff will get the most out of them. That includes the quarterback position.
Just a few weeks ago, I blogged in this space that getting to the Big 12 title game will be the easy part. Winning it will be the hard part.
NU has a great shot at winning the Big 12 North in 2009. In the interest of “process of elimination,” forget Iowa State and Kansas State. Both have new coaches and a truckload of question marks.
Missouri, which has won the division the past two seasons, is likely to come crashing back to Earth after losing Chase Coffman, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Daniel. The Tiger defense is about as soggy as a wet noodle. Keep in mind, with the great talent Mizzu had, it flat lined in the second half of the season. The Tigers looked unstoppable in starting 5-0 but looked pretty ordinary in going 5-4 the rest of the way. Missouri's schedule is favorable enough that they will be able to stay in the hunt. Nebraska has the more difficult schedule, but has talent, depth, and experience at several critical areas. Kansas and Nebraska will be the front-runners for the North title and the game in Lawrence will be huge. Nebraska's defense should be improved over last season and the return of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was a bigger development than any recruit we signed last season.
The lazy analyst will point to their returning quarterback and wide receivers and think that will be enough. However, Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe, and Derek Meier all had monster numbers in 2008 yet only managed to go 4-4 in Big 12. Why will 2009 be any different - especially considering the losses they suffered at other positions?
Colorado might be the wild card of the much. Because the Buffaloes had so many injuries in a 5-7 season, it’s hard to truly evaluate them objectively. Those injuries allowed several youngsters to get playing time but CU goes 9-3 at best in 2009 but 7-5 is more likely.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Reaching the Big 12 title game will be easier than winning it
“Expectations,” “progress,” and “process” are three terms that Nebraska football fans have heard ad nausea the past few years.
The context of those words have centered around how expectations were lowered in the Bill Callahan years and how winning the Big 12 North title in 2006 (its first since 1999) was considered progress. With Bo Pelini as the head coach, he has constantly talked about “the process.”
I remember in the moments after Nebraska’s 37-14 win over Colorado, players paraded around the field with the Big 12 North title trophy. You would have thought the Huskers won a BCS bowl game. I was happy as a fan because it was the first step necessary for the program getting back where it needed to be.
The Huskers then lost the Big 12 title game 21-7 to Oklahoma and then 17-14 to Auburn in the Cotton Bowl. The team plummeted to a 5-7 season in 2007, which would be Callahan’s last, and then rebounded with a 9-4 season a year ago in Pelini’s first season.
I remember conversing with many fellow Husker fans last year at this time saying that going from 5-7 to 9-4 is the easy the part. Going from 9-4 to 11-2 will be the hard part. There are two ways to look at that statement. Nebraska lost two games by less than seven points (35-30 to Virginia Tech and 37-31 in overtime to Texas Tech). So with a couple of breaks, Nebraska could have been 11-2. That said, the higher a team strives to climb the ladder, the smaller the margin for error becomes.
As for winning the Big 12 championship, “getting to” the title game should be the easy part but “winning it” will be the hard part.
With the Huskers developing their program the right way under Pelini, the team should win the Big 12 North division seven or eight years out of every ten. I say that because I do not see a program in the North that is going to go on a consistent run of success.
Iowa State will never be a long term threat and it certainly won’t be in 2009 since it is breaking in a new head coach. Yes, Iowa State upset the No. 12 ranked Huskers 19-10 in 1992 and bested Nebraska in 2002 and 2004 but let’s face it, aside from 1992; the Cyclones only beat Nebraska when it was down. The Huskers went 7-7 in 2002 and 5-7 in 2004.
Iowa State’s best chances to win the Big 12 North came in 2004 and 2005, it not only failed to win it but fell short when the division winner (Colorado) went 4-4 and then 5-3. Best case scenario, the Cyclones might have a few years where they go 7-5 or even 8-4 but they are not going to be churning out 9-3 or better on a regular basis because the Cyclones will get a lot of recruits that Nebraska or Iowa didn’t want.
Bill Snyder returns as head coach to Kansas State for a second stint. The Wildcats defense was rated a Kevin Cosgrove-esque 117th in total defense and had its starting quarterback (Josh Freeman) leave for the NFL. Best case scenario, K-State goes 6-6 in 2009.
Snyder deserves enormous credit for turning around a once moribund program that went 299-510 before 1989. Snyder posted a record of 136-68-1 at K-State but it should also be pointed out that the Wildcats went 9-13 his final two years. Plus, how many of these “coming home” stories really work? Not many.
I have to think that Colorado is not going to be bitten by the injury bug like last year during a 5-7 season. Yes, the Buffs have 15 starters returning but they still have the look of an 8-4 team at best – and that’s being charitable. Colorado won the Division four times from 2001-2005 but in two of those years they had conference records of 4-4 (2004) and 5-3 (2005). That’s not exactly taking control of the division.
I also do not think Dan Hawkins is the right guy. Hawkins went 53-11 at Boise State but is overmatched at the Big 12 level, going 13-24. Plus, CU football is not woven into the culture. When people think of football in Colorado, they think of the Denver Broncos.
We’ll find out how good of a coach Missouri’s Gary Pinkel really is because the Tigers lose seven players on defense, and its offense will be gutted with the graduation of Chase Daniel and Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin’s departure to the NFL.
Because Columbia, Mo., is between Kansas City and St. Louis (two fairly fertile grounds for talent), the Tigers will always have some talent but they just don’t strike you as a program that will put together runs like the last two seasons (22-6). While I wouldn’t consider the 2008 season a failure as the Tigers went 10-4, it was a disappointment given the preseason hype they had.
Kansas is perhaps the Huskers biggest threat for the 2009 season. For starters, the Jayhawks get Nebraska at home and have a returning starter in Todd Reesing at quarterback while the Huskers will have a first-year starter.
Kansas will be a “tough out” because Mark Mangino (45-41) knows how to maximize the talent he has. The Jayhawks football program, however, despite its success under Mangino is always going to fight the perception of being a “basketball school,” which means Nebraska will generally have a talent advantage.
As for the hard part of “winning the Big 12 title.” In the South division, Baylor won’t be a factor any time soon. Texas A&M will probably bounce back to some degree. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have done a nice job under head coaches Mike Gundy and Mike Leach respectively. However, those two programs might have reached their ceiling because both programs will get their share of players that Oklahoma and Texas did not want.
As for OU and Texas? Both schools enjoy a recruiting advantage over Nebraska because of their success this decade and being in fertile recruiting areas. Texas has enjoyed a 115-26 record under head coach Mack Brown with a National title in 2005. Oklahoma has gone 109-24 under Bob Stoops with a National title in 2000.
What gives the Huskers hope is that both coaches have lost as many big games as they’ve won. And both teams should enter the 2009 season in the conversation of National title contenders.
Oklahoma is like the Atlanta Braves of college football. Yes, they have one title but they have been there three other times and had their doors blown off in the other one (55-19 loss to USC in 2004). Again, for as great as Oklahoma has been this decade, you can’t help but feel to some degree that it has underachieved.
As for Texas, which is 4-6 against OU this decade, you also get the feeling that with all of the talent, it acquires, it should have more than one title.
The context of those words have centered around how expectations were lowered in the Bill Callahan years and how winning the Big 12 North title in 2006 (its first since 1999) was considered progress. With Bo Pelini as the head coach, he has constantly talked about “the process.”
I remember in the moments after Nebraska’s 37-14 win over Colorado, players paraded around the field with the Big 12 North title trophy. You would have thought the Huskers won a BCS bowl game. I was happy as a fan because it was the first step necessary for the program getting back where it needed to be.
The Huskers then lost the Big 12 title game 21-7 to Oklahoma and then 17-14 to Auburn in the Cotton Bowl. The team plummeted to a 5-7 season in 2007, which would be Callahan’s last, and then rebounded with a 9-4 season a year ago in Pelini’s first season.
I remember conversing with many fellow Husker fans last year at this time saying that going from 5-7 to 9-4 is the easy the part. Going from 9-4 to 11-2 will be the hard part. There are two ways to look at that statement. Nebraska lost two games by less than seven points (35-30 to Virginia Tech and 37-31 in overtime to Texas Tech). So with a couple of breaks, Nebraska could have been 11-2. That said, the higher a team strives to climb the ladder, the smaller the margin for error becomes.
As for winning the Big 12 championship, “getting to” the title game should be the easy part but “winning it” will be the hard part.
With the Huskers developing their program the right way under Pelini, the team should win the Big 12 North division seven or eight years out of every ten. I say that because I do not see a program in the North that is going to go on a consistent run of success.
Iowa State will never be a long term threat and it certainly won’t be in 2009 since it is breaking in a new head coach. Yes, Iowa State upset the No. 12 ranked Huskers 19-10 in 1992 and bested Nebraska in 2002 and 2004 but let’s face it, aside from 1992; the Cyclones only beat Nebraska when it was down. The Huskers went 7-7 in 2002 and 5-7 in 2004.
Iowa State’s best chances to win the Big 12 North came in 2004 and 2005, it not only failed to win it but fell short when the division winner (Colorado) went 4-4 and then 5-3. Best case scenario, the Cyclones might have a few years where they go 7-5 or even 8-4 but they are not going to be churning out 9-3 or better on a regular basis because the Cyclones will get a lot of recruits that Nebraska or Iowa didn’t want.
Bill Snyder returns as head coach to Kansas State for a second stint. The Wildcats defense was rated a Kevin Cosgrove-esque 117th in total defense and had its starting quarterback (Josh Freeman) leave for the NFL. Best case scenario, K-State goes 6-6 in 2009.
Snyder deserves enormous credit for turning around a once moribund program that went 299-510 before 1989. Snyder posted a record of 136-68-1 at K-State but it should also be pointed out that the Wildcats went 9-13 his final two years. Plus, how many of these “coming home” stories really work? Not many.
I have to think that Colorado is not going to be bitten by the injury bug like last year during a 5-7 season. Yes, the Buffs have 15 starters returning but they still have the look of an 8-4 team at best – and that’s being charitable. Colorado won the Division four times from 2001-2005 but in two of those years they had conference records of 4-4 (2004) and 5-3 (2005). That’s not exactly taking control of the division.
I also do not think Dan Hawkins is the right guy. Hawkins went 53-11 at Boise State but is overmatched at the Big 12 level, going 13-24. Plus, CU football is not woven into the culture. When people think of football in Colorado, they think of the Denver Broncos.
We’ll find out how good of a coach Missouri’s Gary Pinkel really is because the Tigers lose seven players on defense, and its offense will be gutted with the graduation of Chase Daniel and Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin’s departure to the NFL.
Because Columbia, Mo., is between Kansas City and St. Louis (two fairly fertile grounds for talent), the Tigers will always have some talent but they just don’t strike you as a program that will put together runs like the last two seasons (22-6). While I wouldn’t consider the 2008 season a failure as the Tigers went 10-4, it was a disappointment given the preseason hype they had.
Kansas is perhaps the Huskers biggest threat for the 2009 season. For starters, the Jayhawks get Nebraska at home and have a returning starter in Todd Reesing at quarterback while the Huskers will have a first-year starter.
Kansas will be a “tough out” because Mark Mangino (45-41) knows how to maximize the talent he has. The Jayhawks football program, however, despite its success under Mangino is always going to fight the perception of being a “basketball school,” which means Nebraska will generally have a talent advantage.
As for the hard part of “winning the Big 12 title.” In the South division, Baylor won’t be a factor any time soon. Texas A&M will probably bounce back to some degree. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have done a nice job under head coaches Mike Gundy and Mike Leach respectively. However, those two programs might have reached their ceiling because both programs will get their share of players that Oklahoma and Texas did not want.
As for OU and Texas? Both schools enjoy a recruiting advantage over Nebraska because of their success this decade and being in fertile recruiting areas. Texas has enjoyed a 115-26 record under head coach Mack Brown with a National title in 2005. Oklahoma has gone 109-24 under Bob Stoops with a National title in 2000.
What gives the Huskers hope is that both coaches have lost as many big games as they’ve won. And both teams should enter the 2009 season in the conversation of National title contenders.
Oklahoma is like the Atlanta Braves of college football. Yes, they have one title but they have been there three other times and had their doors blown off in the other one (55-19 loss to USC in 2004). Again, for as great as Oklahoma has been this decade, you can’t help but feel to some degree that it has underachieved.
As for Texas, which is 4-6 against OU this decade, you also get the feeling that with all of the talent, it acquires, it should have more than one title.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)