The author has a passion for many things with sports (specifically Nebraska football) being the biggest. This blog is mainly about sports related topics but will mix in other aspects of life when the spirit moves.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
What if the Huskers stayed in the Big XII?
While yours truly put the Big XII in my rearview mirror long ago, the question somewhat begs, would Nebraska’s record be different had it stayed in the Big XII rather than going to the Big Ten? Keep in mind, the Huskers enter their Capital One Bowl matchup against South Carolina with a 9-3 record and went 10-2 last season excluding the Big XII Title Game 23-20 loss to Oklahoma and a 19-7 Holiday Bowl loss to Washington.
So, based on what happened in the Big XII this season and how the Huskers 2011 season transpired, how would they have done had they and Colorado (which went to the Pac 12) stayed in the Big XII? Remember, this discussion has nothing to do with “did Nebraska make the right decision to leave the Big XII?” As for how would they have done, not an easy answer but the nonconference opponents would have stayed the same. Nebraska beat all four opponents: Tennessee-Chatanooga (40-7), Fresno State (42-29), Washington (51-38) and Wyoming (38-14). I have to think the outcomes of those games would have been the same.
For North Division games, the Huskers would have drawn Kansas State and Iowa State at home and visited Colorado, Kansas and Missouri. As for South division foes, Nebraska would have hosted Texas A&M and Oklahoma State while visiting Texas.
I do not know the order in which the Huskers would have faced those clubs but here is my best guess:
Here is where things get interesting. I couldn't Google the original 2011 schedule from when NU was still in the XII, but there are several things I know for certain:
Kansas State, the “coming home” angles seldom work out but Bill Snyder Part II has been a success. The Wildcats have gone 10-2 in Year 3 of Snyder Part II and are headed to the Cotton Bowl to take on 10-2 Arkansas. The Wildcats would have presented a matchup problem as far as having a mobile quarterback with good skill players around him but with this game in Lincoln, I think Nebraska gets it done.
The Huskers would have visited Texas, which just completed its 8-5 season with a 21-10 Holiday Bowl win over California. Call me a cynic but something screwy always happens when Nebraska plays Texas. In this case it would have been any combination of red zone drives stalling to make Nebraska kick field goals instead of score touchdowns. Then, Texas goes on a game-winning drive kept alive by two questionable defensive penalties. The Longhorns kick the go-ahead field goal as time expires and ABC commentator Brent Musburger masterbates all over himself as the kick sails through the uprights.
Nebraska is 5-1 going into its bye week as it hosts a blazing hot Oklahoma State club that is 11-1 going into its Fiesta Bowl matchup with Stanford. Both clubs have questionable defenses but Okie State’s offense is better equipped to trade punches. I think the Cowboys win by 10-14 points, sending Nebraska to 5-2 into a road matchup at Missouri.
The Tigers finished their season 8-5 after Monday’s 41-24 Independence Bowl win over North Carolina. Missouri could not stop Roy Helu, who rushed for a school-record 307 yards in a 31-17 win in Lincoln in 2010. The Tigers certainly would have no easier of a time stopping Rex Burkhead and as suspect as they are against the pass, even the much-maligned passing of quarterback Taylor Martinez would not have been stopped. I think Nebraska wins by three touchdowns to improve to 6-2 heading into a home game against Iowa State.
The Cyclones went 6-6 and will face Rutgers in the Pinestripe Bowl on Friday. Paul Rhodes has been a headache for the Huskers. His tea came into Lincoln and won 9-7 in 2009 and narrowly lost 31-30 in 2010 in Ames. The Cyclones are a scrappy bunch and would have made the Huskers sweat but I think Nebraska escapes to improve to 7-2 heading into a road game at Kansas.
The Jayhawks went 2-10 and though they gave Nebraska a tussle in 2010 in Lincoln, this would have been a “name the score” type of win to improve Nebraska to 8- heading into a home matchup with Texas A&M.
The Aggies would up with a disappointing 6-6 season that cost head coach Mike Sherman his job. Texas A&M will play Northwestern in the Meineke Car Bowl. Nebraska’s defense was not as stout in 2011 but the Aggies would have had a healthy Taylor Martinez to contend with unlike last season. Nebraska wins by two touchdowns to improve to 9-2 entering the season finale at Colorado.
The Buffs have been a headache for Nebraska on Black Friday before, including the 2001 62-36 blowout win over Nebraska but this Colorado team is a distant third cousin to that team. Nebraska wins going away and just like last year is 10-2 heading into the Big XII title game only this time the Huskers gets a rematch with Oklahoma State.
With the Cowboys playing for the first time I a conference title game and Nebraska having near misses the previous two years, Bo Pelini makes adjustments. The Huskers have a “bend but don’t break” effort defensively and produce enough offense for a 10-point win and an 11-2 record heading into the Fiesta Bowl against Stanford.
If this matchup happens, I don’t like the Huskers undermanned defense’s chances. As great as Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck is, Stanford can beat teams running or throwing. Stanford wins by 7-10 points.
Nebraska ends the 2011 season 11-3
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Was Texas Tech that good or did K-State really stink that bad?
The Huskers cleared the first on Thursday night with a 27-12 come-from-behind win at Missouri, which had beaten Nebraska four of the last six times including a combined 93-23 score the previous two meetings. Going into the contest, one had the feeling the Huskers were better than Missou this year but Thursday’s win was a psychological hurdle.
With Texas Tech you have the same dynamic. I believe the Huskers currently have the better team but the Red Raiders, who have beaten Nebraska the last three times. First there was the 70-10 debacle in Lubbock in 2004. Then, there were two hard luck losses – 34-31 in 2005 in Lincoln and 37-31 in overtime last season in Lubbock.
With the Huskers having Saturday vacant from games, I got to asking myself after the Red Raiders pummeled Kansas State 66-14 -- is K-State that bad or is Texas Tech much better than we thought? Fair question considering the Red Raiders lost a handful of players from last year’s 11-2 team including quarterback Graham Harrell and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.
One thing is for sure about Red Raiders head coach Mike Leach, he’s a goofy SOB but he knows how to develop offensive talent. Texas Tech is 4-2 after Saturday’s win with backup quarterback Steven Sheffield filling in for an injured Taylor Potts (concussion. All Sheffield did was complete 33-of-41 passes for 490 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception.
Insane.
Nebraska is a six-point favorite but make no mistake, this should be a challenging contest.
Back up QB was outstanding. It should be a good and challenging game. To answer the earlier question of is Texas Tech better than we thought or does Kansas State really suck that bad? Well, a little of both. The Red Raiders are football’s version of a fast break offense. You have to make it a half court game because if the game is at the Red Raiders break-neck speed tempo, they are hell on wheels.
However, Kansas State is terrible. Let’s face it, the Wildcats barely beat Iowa State 24-23 and lost 17-15 to a Louisiana –Lafayette team that Nebraska whitewashed 55-0. So the truth must lie somewhere in the middle.
So I am not sure what we learned about Texas Tech. It is hard to get a read on Tech since they played some real cupcakes early on but the Red Raiders also battled gamely before losing to No. 2 Texas 34-24 in Austin earlier this season.
What concerns me about Texas Tech is the way they play run defense, ranking 28th in the nation in rush defense but have also had trouble in allowing teams to convert too many third downs.
The Huskers are coming off a highly emotional comeback win under adverse conditions and a lot of people across the country are starting to say really good things about our team. Texas Tech is a quality opponent with an unusual style of ball.
Second-year Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini and staff, however, have done a fantastic job of having the Huskers team move on from one game to the next. I just feel like this week may be a big challenge in that area.
The next game will tell us a lot about how the rest of the year's going to go.
Texas Tech, however, is not likely to sneak up on Nebraska based on scoring 66 against K-State. True, K-State is a sorry ass teams, but 66 is 66. If they had won say 38-12, we might have fallen asleep. Not now.
I do believe that Nebraska has the ability to beat just about anyone on the remaining schedule. On the other hand, I don't think the Huskers are so good that they could not be beaten by any of those teams either.
One observation I will make is that the evidence before us so far is that NU has closed the gap between themselves and other ranked teams. (exhibit 1 – Virginia Tech; exhibit 2 - Missouri).
Next week we will see whether this evidence was misleading or whether it is a sign of a positive trend.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Sizing up the rest of the season in blackjack terms
As I expected, Nebraska stands at 3-1, predicting relatively easy wins over Florida Atlantic (49-3), Arkansas State (38-9) and Louisiana-Lafayette (55-0) along with a close loss to Virginia Tech (16-15). Of course, who could have predicted the defeat at Virginia Tech to be of such heart-breaking proportions.
The Huskers enjoy a bye this week entering their Oct. 8 Thursday night ESPN telecast at Missouri. Faurot Field has been a house of horrors lately for Nebraska, which has given up 41 points in each of the last three head-to-head meetings in Columbia, Mo. And has not won their since 2001.
Excluding any Big 12 championship or bowl games, most people tabbed Nebraska as 8-4 on the low end and 10-2 on the high end. Our minds might change of course but we size up the Huskers remaining games and their chances for victory in blackjack terms:
Oct. 8 at Missouri:
Victory odds: No worse than even money.
The Tigers are 4-0 but it’s also a soft 4-0. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, everyone’s favorite in Nebraska for de-committing two years ago, has looked very good but the Tigers ground game and run defense are less than stellar. Mizzu also struggled to put away Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Whoever is favored will be a slight one.
Oct. 17 vs. Texas Tech
Victory odds: No worse even money.
The Red Raiders are not the juggernaut they were last season, and keep in mind Nebraska was a desperation Joe Ganz interception away from pulling off the upset in Lubbock in a 37-31 overtime loss. Texas Tech might not be offensive machine it normally is but they are still like a fast break basketball team that needs to be lured into a halfcourt game.
Oct. 24 vs. Iowa State
Victory odds: Blackjack
The Cyclones are 3-1 but got hammered 35-3 by instate rival Iowa, the only team Iowa State has played with a pulse. There’s a good chance the Cyclones won’t win a game the rest of the way. OK, at best they win one or two but don’t count on it happening in Lincoln.
Oct. 31 at Baylor
Victory odds: Blackjack
With quarterback Robert Griffin healthy, Nebraska had about a 65 percent to win. With Griffin on the shelf the rest of the season with a knee injury, the Huskers victory chances go up to about 85 percent. The Bears have been overmatched since entering the Big XII in 1996 but were viewed by some prognosticators as a “bowl eligible candidate but seriously, even with Griffin who else were they going to beat in Big XII besides Iowa State?
Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma
Victory odds: Likely dealer win
The Sooners have shown no shortage of resilience since falling 14-13 to BYU in a game that saw quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford sustain a broken collar-bone. OU has since rebounded to defeat Idaho State (64-0) and Tulsa (45-0) with backup Landry Jones at the helm. The Sooners will probably face a pretty pissed off Miami team. Keep in mind, the overhyped Hurricanes got taken to the woodshed with a 31-10 loss at Virginia Tech Saturday. Bradford might be back by the time OU comes to Lincoln but even without him, the Sooners will be tough to beat.
Nov. 14 at Kansas
Victory odds: No worse than even money
This game will have plenty of Big XII North implications. The Jayhawks are 4-0 and faced their first true test last week at home against Southern Mississippi. Kansas did not pass with flying colors but a 35-28 win against a good Conference USA team is nothing to scoff about. KU will be a tough out as long as Mark Mangino is the coach but Nebraska does have a talent advantage not to mention equal if not superior coaching with Bo Pelini.
Nov. 21 vs. Kansas State
Victory odds: Blackjack
The Wildcats are showing far greater signs of life in Bill Snyder the Sequel than they did under Ron Prince but let’s face it, this is a reclamation project. If K-State lost 73-31 to a down and out Nebraska team in 2007 what makes you think they’ll beat what figures to a Husker team that is getting better at this stage of the season.
Nov. 27 at Colorado
Victory odds: No worse than even money
I know most Husker fans are thinking this game is a slamdunk and that it’s not a rivalry. Unfortunately, the latter misses the point. Nebraska has won the majority of head-to-head contests but very few have been blowouts.
CONCLUSION
With Pelini’s coaching staff, Nebraska will occasionally win a game you don’t think it’ll win. They’ll rarely if ever loss a game that looks like a slamdunk to win. They’ll win no worse than half of their bubble games.
A 9-3 regular season looks like a pretty solid bet.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Will the North rise up?
It’s hard to argue against that idea now because since the conference was formed in 1996 since the South has won nine of the 14 Big XII championship games. The last time a North division team won it was 2003 (Kansas State).
However, the question that bears asking is will the pendulum swing back toward the North any time soon? Listening to some people you would think the answer was a resounding “never.” Unfortunately, those same people forget that when the conference was initially formed the North was the superior division. Nebraska was at its zenith in the midst of a 60-3 run with three National Championships in four seasons as well as four undefeated regular seasons in five years. Colorado and Kansas State also had outstanding teams in that stretch and if not for Nebraska, who’s to say they might not have won a National title? Of course, it wouldn’t be the same without Kansas State and Colorado fans living in the world of “if.”
In that same stretch, keep in mind that the South division teams that were strong now were not strong then. Oklahoma was pathetic. Texas was decent but far from what it is now. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State were so-so but not as prominently on the radar as they are now.
So will the balance of power ever shift back to the North? Some people seem convinced that it will never happen. Granted, the South already has a built-in leg up over the North in that you have two brand name programs (Texas and Oklahoma) while the North has one (Nebraska). It’s hard to imagine Kansas State being at that level any time soon. Kansas, Missouri and occasionally Colorado are solid. The one with the best chance of staying power might be Missouri because Columbia lies between two pretty fertile recruiting areas (Kansas City and St. Louis).
Because Texas and Oklahoma are in two fertile and highly coveted recruiting areas, most people seem convinced those programs will stay ahead of the pack. Unfortunately, what those same people forget is that Texas and Oklahoma have always had that recruiting advantage over Nebraska. Yes, that includes the years they both stunk. I just find it laughable how people only talk about those advantages when a team is good.
David McWilliams had the same recruiting advantage at Texas when he was the head coach from 1986-1991. What did that get him? A mediocre 31-26 record. His successor, John Mackovic had the same advantage from 1992-1997. What did that get him? A mediocre 41-28-1 record. Look at Oklahoma. John Blake had the same recruiting advantage from 1996-1998. What was his record? A most impressive 12-22.
Look at USC in a recruiting ground like Los Angeles. That’s about as fertile as it gets. That advantage got Paul Hackett a whopping 19-18 record from 1998-2000. It got Larry Smith a 44-25-3 record from 1987-1992 but not consistent success. Lest we forget it got Ted Tollner a pretty average 26-20 record from 1982-1986.
Granted, it’s hard to imagine Texas, Oklahoma or USC going in the tank barring NCAA sanctions, disastrous coaching changes or other bizarre acts of implosion.
Keep in mind, though, it wasn’t long ago that we could not have imagined Nebraska imploding but it happened. And if it can happen them it can happen now.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Huskers need to conquer road challenges to return to elite
“Expectations” are certainly a word that will likely be uttered often as Big 12 Media Day begins Monday in Dallas. Defensive end Ndamukong Suh, running back Roy Helu and offensive guard Jacob Hickman will make the trip with Pelini.
The Huskers, who went 9-4 in 2008, are tabbed a slight favorite to win the Big 12 North with Kansas being the team’s biggest threat but I would not sleep on Colorado or Missouri just yet either, especially the former.
Omaha World Herald columnist Tom Shatel addressed in his recent column that the Huskers status as “favorite” to win the Big 12 North might be by default as much as anything based on the team’s aforementioned situation at quarterback and wide receiver. Shatel reasoned that Nebraska’s defense should continue to improve in Pelini’s second year along with the fact that the team should be a solid running team on offense. Shatel also added that every other Big 12 North team has its issues as well.
The biggest reason to hedge slightly on expectations for the 2009 Huskers is their recent history as a road team. Since the infamous Black Friday 62-36 loss at Colorado, the Huskers are 16-25 away from Memorial Stadium (neutral site games included) and 13-21 in non-neutral site games.
That stretch has included its share of decisive losses (two defeats by 40 or more points, six by 30 or more, 11 by 20 or more, and 16 by 10 or more). True the loss in 2006 at USC (28-10) was no disgrace. After all, the Trojans went 11-2 that year finished as the No. 4 rated team in the nation. However, the embarrassing defeats were not just against quality teams like the 2004 and 2008 Oklahoma Sooners, whom Nebraska suffered 30-3 and 62-28 defeats to in Norman. Both years, the Sooners reached the National Title game only to lose. In 2007, Nebraska losses 41-6 to a Missouri team that finished the season ranked No. 4 and 76-39 to a Kansas team that finished year rated No. 7. And we won’t even begin to address the 70-10 debacle at Texas Tech in 2004. The Red Raiders finished the 2004 season rated No. 18.
The Huskers also got their doors blown off by mediocre to crappy teams. In 2002, the Huskers lose 36-14 to an Iowa State team that went 7-7. In 2004, Nebraska loses 45-21 to a sorry ass Kansas State team that goes 4-7. In 2005, the Huskers lose 40-15 to a pretty average Kansas team that went 7-5. In 2006, the Huskers allow a 16-0 lead to an ordinary Oklahoma State to slip away into a 41-29 loss. To quote legendary Green Bay Packers coach Vince Lombardi, I say, “What the hell’s goin’ on out here!”
Very few of the 13 wins have come against quality foes. The Huskers scored come-from-behind wins at Texas A&M in 2002 (38-31) and 2006 (28-27). The former Aggies club went 6-6. The latter went 9-4, finishing the year ranked No. 24. There’s two ways to look at those wins. One, those Texas A&M teams were fairly ordinary but it also takes some moxie to go into College Station to win because the crowd noise creates a home field advantage that is among the best in the nation. There’s a reason why their crowd is referred to as “the 12th man.”
In 2004, the Huskers scored a 24-17 win at Pittsburgh against a Panther team that went 8-4 and finished ranked No. 24. In 2007, Nebraska went into Winston-Salem, North Carolina and beat eventual ACC champ Wake Forest 20-17. OK, two wins against good clubs but it’s not we went into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama.
In 2005, Nebraska’s 30-3 win over Colorado in Boulder was a big win at the time in the Bill Callahan era because it was shocking and unexpected but the fact that the win was part of a four-game losing skid by Colorado took some of the shine out of that win.
Point being, as much as Nebraska improved last season, it still lacked a quality “true” road win. The Huskers went 2-2 on the road last season (3-2 away from Memorial stadium. Beating Clemson 26-21 in the Gator Bowl was impressive since Jacksonville, Fla., is near the Tigers home turf in Clemson, South Carolina but there were plenty of Husker fans in attendance.
Nebraska defeated Iowa State (which finished 2-10 in 2008) 35-7 and Kansas State (which finished 5-7) 56-28. The wins count, no doubt, but the Huskers should win those games whether they are played in Lincoln, Ames, Manhattan or the North Pole. You can make the argument that Nebraska was a play or two away in losing 37-31 in overtime against Texas Tech team that went 11-2. True but if Pelini won’t accept moral victories why should we? Also, losing 62-28 at Oklahoma is one thing but the Huskers need to at least look like they belong on the same field as the Sooners.
If the Huskers want to take a step forward and improve on the 2008 progress – it will have to gain no worse than a split in their road games at Virginia Tech, Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado. Even Baylor won’t be a sure thing.
Good teams win, period, no matter where they're playing. It's always a challenge to win consistently on the road. It's definitely one of the best feelings a team can have -- go into someone else's place and come out with a win, but that is what the good teams do. Being able to win on the road is what sets teams apart.
However, it isn't only intangibles that make for successful road teams. It also is not just a lack of character that accounts for bad road performances. There is a football element involved, too, and that should not be overlooked.
Good road teams that run the ball well tend to be success. Why? Because even in an era of highly sophisticated passing games and spread offenses, running the ball is the surest recipe for victory. On the road, it often takes the home crowd out of the game because, for fans, there is nothing more energy-sapping than watching the opposition's offense monopolize the ball. Teams that win on the road tend not to panic and abandon their game plan if they fall behind early, and they find a way to hang in against adversity. And they don't turn the ball over -- a transgression in any contest, but particularly in road games.
Generally, teams that succeed on the road are simply good teams but they are also teams with collective will, resilience and staying power, and those are traits only the best teams possess.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
The rise and fall of Nebraska's rivalry games
Here we are in the second week of July. Most teams are a few weeks away from reporting for fall practice. You’ll get a smattering of games on Labor Day weekend and thereafter the schedule gets into full bloom.
For us Husker fans, Lincoln Journal Star columnist Steve Sipple had a palate-whetting blog entry pertaining to the notion of “rivalries” in sports but specifically college football. Sipple, who has done an outstanding job of covering Husker football for many years, addressed a statement that Kansas head coach Mark Mangino made on ESPN that answered the question of who is Kansas’ more heated rivalry, Kansas State or Missouri?
“We have a great rivalry in-state with Kansas State as well,” Mangino said. “But I think our fan base has made it pretty clear to me that the Missouri game is very important.”
When I think of rivalry, I mostly think of a few things: a) There is definite polarization as in there’s no way in hell you could root for the other team, b) The game usually means something when the two teams play, and c) Fans will watch the game even if they don’t care about either team.
Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma and others fit that description. OK, sure, you can say Harvard-Yale but how many people are going to drop whatever they are doing to watch that game? Since I have lived much of my life in Northern California (save for four years while attending the University of Nebraska), I have found it also comical how Cal-Stanford is called “The Big Game.”
Sure, there was the game in 1982. After Stanford had taken a 20-19 lead on a field goal with four seconds left in the game, the Golden Bears used five lateral passes on the ensuing kickoff return to score the winning touchdown and earn a 25-20 victory. Members of the Stanford Band had come onto the field midway through the return, believing that the game was over, which added to the ensuing confusion. The game might be a rivalry but it is hardly big because unless you live in Northern California and have a rooting interest in either team, you’re not going to watch it.
For years, Nebraska was rivals with Oklahoma. The interesting thing is that OU has generally considered Texas its biggest rival but Nebraska-Oklahoma was the traditional game that took place the day after Thanksgiving. Plus, both teams were good at the same time for many years, combining for 12 National Championship (OU has seven, NU has five) and dominated the Big Eight conference, which has since expanded to the Big 12.
With that expansion, both teams play each other two years out of every four since Nebraska is in the Big 12 North and Oklahoma is in the Big 12 South. Since 1993, the two clubs have only share two good seasons (2001 and to a lesser extent 2006). OU suffered some fallow years from 1994-1998 before Bob Stoops arrived to resurrect the program. Nebraska suffered mostly subpar years from 2002-2007 but appears to be on its way back to prominence under Bo Pelini.
Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri have had elements of the notion “rivalry” with Nebraska the last 15 or so years as the meetings have been testy at times. Bill McCartney was known for “red lettering” Nebraska on the schedule but a segment of Husker fans even to this day do not consider it a rivalry.
I would sort of disagree with that notion. Since 1993, the two teams have met 17 times with Nebraska winning 12 games but six by a touchdown or less and eight by ten points or fewer. To take it a step further, did you see CU’s 62-36 blowout over the unbeaten Huskers in 2001 or NU’s 30-3 blowout in 2005 coming?
Kansas State made a tremendous turnaround under Bill Snyder (now back for his second stint after replacing Ron Prince). The Wildcats defeated Nebraska 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2004. However, it should also be pointed out that the only one of those Husker teams that finished in the top ten was the 2000 club that went 11-2. The 2004 and 2007 Huskers went 5-6 and 5-7 respectively and were the worst in post Bob Devaney history. The 2007 Nebraska team trounced the Wildcats 73-31.
Missouri has been mostly fair-to-middlin before having a breakout 12-2 season in 2007. The 2008 campaign came with a lot of hype and while 10-4 and Big 12 North title is not a failure per se, it was not the enormous success most envisioned. Missouri beat Nebraska in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008. Two of those wins were Bill Callahan teams (2005 and 2007) while the 2008 team had a lot of Callahan remnants. The timing of that game also came before Nebraska finished its season winning six of its final seven games.
As for Missouri, other than 1997, the Tigers were routinely hammered by the best of Nebraska. K-State was also routinely exposed by the best Nebraska teams as well.
Granted, getting blown out by the Huskers from 1993-1997 was hardly a disgrace but Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri’s success against Nebraska have almost as much to do with the Huskers fall as it does their rise.
Point being, of the three, Colorado is the closest thing to a rivalry because they have battled the Huskers close consistently when they were in their prime. Plus, the aforementioned 2001 game between the two teams sent Nebraska into a tailspin.
That said, I don't think Nebraska has a true rival. If they played Oklahoma every year like they did in the Big Eight, then I believe it'd be one of the best rivalry games in the country no matter if its one sided or not.The Huskers have had so much success over the years against the five other North teams, I don't consider them as a rival in the truest sense.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
2009 Nebraska football game-by-game crystal ball
Huskers Illustrated, you have inspired me to reach to greater heights. I just had my official 2009 football yearbook mailed to my home in Napa, CA this past weekend.
The magazine previews the 2009 season in-depth with Ndamukong Suh -- the Huskers hulking defensive tackle featured on the front cover. If looks could kill quarterbacks like Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing, Zac Robinson and Robert Griffon would be a pile of dust.
The edition includes but is not limited to roster breakdown, opponent breakdown, position breakdown and media breakdown. Media members that cover the team regularly pick the Huskers record plus a synopsis for the reason behind their picks. The most pessimistic are Ken Hambleton (Lincoln Journal Star) and Terry Douglass (Grand island Independent). Both pick the Huskers to finish 8-5 including their bowl game.
The X-Factor is taking into account which media members pick the Big Red to reach the Big 12 Title Game. Keep in mind, some people are favoring Kansas. The ones are definitely picking Nebraska to win the division are Dave Hunt (KLKN TV Lincoln). Chris Schmidt (Huskers Illustratred radio), Lane Grindle (Husker Sports Network), Brian Christopherson (Lincoln Journal Star), Brian Rosenthal (Lincoln Journal Star), Jeff Wilkerson (KLMS, Lincoln), Sean Callahan (Huskersillustrated.com), Dirk Chatlain (Omaha World-Herald), John Schuetz (KETV, Omaha), Mike’L Severe (KOZN, Omaha) and Matt Schick (KETV, Omaha). The records range from 9-5 to 11-3. The last time the Huskers won the Big 12 North in 2006 under Bill Callahan, the team went 9-5 but perhaps should have gone 11-3 -- or at least 10-4 anyhow.
Though I am a member of the mainstream media here in the Napa Valley, I am not among the mainstream media in Nebraska covering the team even though I was at one time in my life. So here at Wine Country Husker headquarters at my non-palatial condo here in Napa, CA, I have decided to get bold and take a stab at the Huskers 2009 game-by-game breakdown. Last season, I picked 10-3 in Bo Pelini’s first season with Nebraska beating Wisconsin in the Alamo Bowl. I was one game off as Nebraska went 9-4, beating Clemson in the Gator Bowl.
I have sipped a little bit Kool-Aid as we speak. The Napa Valley kind but here’s our breakdown:
Nebraska 38, Florida Atlantic 17
The Howard Schnellenberger storylines resonate throughout the week. Florida Atlantic is one of the best the Sun Belt has to offer but the Huskers race to a 21-3 lead at halftime and that advantage swells to 35-3 after three quarters. Roy Helu rushes for three TDs and Zac Lee throws for two more. The Owls get two touchdowns in garbage time. Nebraska’s more experienced defense generates three turnovers and five sacks.
Nebraska 41, Arkansas State 14
For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers produce a big lead, this time 24-7 at halftime and 31-14 after three quarters. Prince Amukamara’s interception (one of three picks for the Blackshirts) for a touchdown in the fourth quarter punctuates the win. Quentin Castille rushes for three touchdowns while Zac Lee throws for another.
Virginia Tech 24, Nebraska 20
Both offenses moved the ball efficiently in the first half in front of a nationally televised audience. The Hokies lead 21-14 at halftime but in the second half both defenses bowed their necks, especially in the red zone. The Huskers are still seeking that truly signature win against an elite club. Nebraska battles hard but falls short. Bo Pelini says in his postgame press conference, “moral victories suck.” Pelini does not need to make that statement but further cements his status among Husker fans as “Our guy.”
Nebraska 44, Louisiana-Lafeyette 10
The Huskers start like a house of fire looking to put the Virginia Tech loss behind them on the way to a 27-7 halftime lead. Nebraska’s best defense was a keep-away offense as Quentin Castille rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns. Helu added 65 more while Lee threw for a pair of touchdowns. Kody Spano gets into the box score with a fourth quarter scoring pass. The Huskers are 3-1 heading into Big 12 play with two dragons to slay.
Nebraska 41, Missouri 24
The real Missouri is back and the Huskers slay a dragon in what has been a House of Horrors. The first three quarters are a seesaw battle in front of a Thursday night ESPN audience as the Tigers erase a 20-10 Nebraska lead at halftimes to take a 24-20 lead after three quarters. Bo Pelini challenges his team on the sideline and they respond. The Huskers dominate the fourth quarter as Lee throws for two touchdown tosses while Blake Lawrence’s 57-yard interception return to paydirt seals the win late in the fourth quarter.
Nebraska 35, Texas Tech 24
The Huskers slay yet another dragon as the Memorial Stadium noise is deafening as the Huskers play their 1,200th game in school history. Just like last year, the Husker offense plays keep-away led by Roy Helu’s 146 yards rushing and two touchdowns. The Huskers lead 14-10 half but made the Red Raiders fight uphill even further as Zac Lee connected with Mike McNeill for a touchdown pass. The Blackshirt defense bends but does not break. Ndamukong Suh intercepts a pass – shades of LeKevin Smith’s INT – only he holds on to the ball and the Huskers seal the win.
Nebraska 34, Iowa State 3
Coming off two emotional wins, Nebraska starts slow as the game was a scoreless tie after one quarter but takes a 14-0 halftime lead as Zac Lee connects with Mike McNeill for a touchdown and Quentin Castille powers his way into the zone. The Huskers control the line of scrimmage with the O-and-D Lines. Defensively, the Huskers produced five sacks and two interceptions.
Nebraska 31, Baylor 20
The dreaded trap game in Waco before a marquee matchup the following week in Lincoln. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin gives the Huskers headaches in the first half as the game is tied at 17-all at intermission. The Blackshirts put the clamps on Griffin in the second half while Zac Lee connects with Menelik Holt for two second half touchdown tosses to seal the Husker win.
Oklahoma 38, Nebraska 21
The crowd noise is off the hook, just like old times for NU-OU matchups. The Huskers show they have narrowed the gap but OU still has superior talent and depth. The Sooners lead 24-17 at halftime before pulling away in the second half. Sooner head coach Bob Stoops, known for his arrogance, says, “Don’t be fooled, Nebraska is on its way back.”
Nebraska 31, Kansas 21
The Huskers see this as a chance to close in on the division title and they do in a hard fought road victory. The Jayhawks strike first but Castille answers with two rushing touchdowns to give the Huskers the lead for good. Nebraska puts it away in the second half with an Alex Henery field goal and a Zac Lee to Chris Brooks touchdown. The Blackshirts force three turnovers and harass Todd Reesing throughout the day.
Nebraska 41, Kansas State 7
Bill Snyder has the Wildcats playing better but they still lack the depth to beat the Huskers. Nebraska leads 17-0 after one quarter and 27-0 at halftimes and wins going away on Senior Day. Nebraska gets its backups some much needed work heading into the bye week.
Nebraska 23, Colorado 17 (OT)
Husker fans might not like calling this a “rivarly” game but anything can and does happen when these two teams meet. With the Big 12 North title in hand, the Huskers fight off a gallant Buffs effort. Nebraska wins the overtime coin toss and defers. Ndamukong Suh gets a sack, forced fumble and recovered fumble all in the same play. The Huskers get the ball back and go for the jugular as Zac Lee hits Mike McNeill for a 25-yard strike to win the game. Denver Post communist, err columnist Woody Paige writes his typical diarrhea of the mouth column the next day.
Big 12 Championship Game
Texas 28, Nebraska 24
Nebraska needs a win to secure a BCS bowl game while Texas still has National Title hopes. The Longhorns break Nebraska’s heart again as Colt McCoy hits Jordan Shipley with just over three minutes remaining in a seesaw battle. The Huskers bid to respond with a game-winning drive falls short. Bo Pelini challenges his team to finish the season with authority.
Cotton Bowl
Nebraska 34, Alabama 17
The Holliday Bowl expresses interest in the Huskers while Nebraska has never been too keen on the Cotton Bowl. However, Cotton Bowl officials see a prime opportunity to match two brand name programs together – Nebraska and Alabama. Bo Pelini promises not to go for any fake punts on his own 30, a la Bill Callahan. Sorry -- could not resist.
The Huskers lead wire-to-wire as Zac Lee converts some clutch third down passes. Lee throws for two touchdowns and runs for another. The Blackshirts force four turnovers and record three quarterback sacks.
Husker fans say, “Take that, SEC!”
Friday, April 24, 2009
Despite inexperience at QB, Huskers serious Big 12 North contender
Not to sound like a Kool-Aid sipper because there’s only so much you can read into spring practices but I'm pretty optimistic because the impression you get from Bo Pelini and staff is that no matter who plays, the coaching staff will get the most out of them. That includes the quarterback position.
Just a few weeks ago, I blogged in this space that getting to the Big 12 title game will be the easy part. Winning it will be the hard part.
NU has a great shot at winning the Big 12 North in 2009. In the interest of “process of elimination,” forget Iowa State and Kansas State. Both have new coaches and a truckload of question marks.
Missouri, which has won the division the past two seasons, is likely to come crashing back to Earth after losing Chase Coffman, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Daniel. The Tiger defense is about as soggy as a wet noodle. Keep in mind, with the great talent Mizzu had, it flat lined in the second half of the season. The Tigers looked unstoppable in starting 5-0 but looked pretty ordinary in going 5-4 the rest of the way. Missouri's schedule is favorable enough that they will be able to stay in the hunt. Nebraska has the more difficult schedule, but has talent, depth, and experience at several critical areas. Kansas and Nebraska will be the front-runners for the North title and the game in Lawrence will be huge. Nebraska's defense should be improved over last season and the return of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was a bigger development than any recruit we signed last season.
The lazy analyst will point to their returning quarterback and wide receivers and think that will be enough. However, Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe, and Derek Meier all had monster numbers in 2008 yet only managed to go 4-4 in Big 12. Why will 2009 be any different - especially considering the losses they suffered at other positions?
Colorado might be the wild card of the much. Because the Buffaloes had so many injuries in a 5-7 season, it’s hard to truly evaluate them objectively. Those injuries allowed several youngsters to get playing time but CU goes 9-3 at best in 2009 but 7-5 is more likely.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Reaching the Big 12 title game will be easier than winning it
The context of those words have centered around how expectations were lowered in the Bill Callahan years and how winning the Big 12 North title in 2006 (its first since 1999) was considered progress. With Bo Pelini as the head coach, he has constantly talked about “the process.”
I remember in the moments after Nebraska’s 37-14 win over Colorado, players paraded around the field with the Big 12 North title trophy. You would have thought the Huskers won a BCS bowl game. I was happy as a fan because it was the first step necessary for the program getting back where it needed to be.
The Huskers then lost the Big 12 title game 21-7 to Oklahoma and then 17-14 to Auburn in the Cotton Bowl. The team plummeted to a 5-7 season in 2007, which would be Callahan’s last, and then rebounded with a 9-4 season a year ago in Pelini’s first season.
I remember conversing with many fellow Husker fans last year at this time saying that going from 5-7 to 9-4 is the easy the part. Going from 9-4 to 11-2 will be the hard part. There are two ways to look at that statement. Nebraska lost two games by less than seven points (35-30 to Virginia Tech and 37-31 in overtime to Texas Tech). So with a couple of breaks, Nebraska could have been 11-2. That said, the higher a team strives to climb the ladder, the smaller the margin for error becomes.
As for winning the Big 12 championship, “getting to” the title game should be the easy part but “winning it” will be the hard part.
With the Huskers developing their program the right way under Pelini, the team should win the Big 12 North division seven or eight years out of every ten. I say that because I do not see a program in the North that is going to go on a consistent run of success.
Iowa State will never be a long term threat and it certainly won’t be in 2009 since it is breaking in a new head coach. Yes, Iowa State upset the No. 12 ranked Huskers 19-10 in 1992 and bested Nebraska in 2002 and 2004 but let’s face it, aside from 1992; the Cyclones only beat Nebraska when it was down. The Huskers went 7-7 in 2002 and 5-7 in 2004.
Iowa State’s best chances to win the Big 12 North came in 2004 and 2005, it not only failed to win it but fell short when the division winner (Colorado) went 4-4 and then 5-3. Best case scenario, the Cyclones might have a few years where they go 7-5 or even 8-4 but they are not going to be churning out 9-3 or better on a regular basis because the Cyclones will get a lot of recruits that Nebraska or Iowa didn’t want.
Bill Snyder returns as head coach to Kansas State for a second stint. The Wildcats defense was rated a Kevin Cosgrove-esque 117th in total defense and had its starting quarterback (Josh Freeman) leave for the NFL. Best case scenario, K-State goes 6-6 in 2009.
Snyder deserves enormous credit for turning around a once moribund program that went 299-510 before 1989. Snyder posted a record of 136-68-1 at K-State but it should also be pointed out that the Wildcats went 9-13 his final two years. Plus, how many of these “coming home” stories really work? Not many.
I have to think that Colorado is not going to be bitten by the injury bug like last year during a 5-7 season. Yes, the Buffs have 15 starters returning but they still have the look of an 8-4 team at best – and that’s being charitable. Colorado won the Division four times from 2001-2005 but in two of those years they had conference records of 4-4 (2004) and 5-3 (2005). That’s not exactly taking control of the division.
I also do not think Dan Hawkins is the right guy. Hawkins went 53-11 at Boise State but is overmatched at the Big 12 level, going 13-24. Plus, CU football is not woven into the culture. When people think of football in Colorado, they think of the Denver Broncos.
We’ll find out how good of a coach Missouri’s Gary Pinkel really is because the Tigers lose seven players on defense, and its offense will be gutted with the graduation of Chase Daniel and Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin’s departure to the NFL.
Because Columbia, Mo., is between Kansas City and St. Louis (two fairly fertile grounds for talent), the Tigers will always have some talent but they just don’t strike you as a program that will put together runs like the last two seasons (22-6). While I wouldn’t consider the 2008 season a failure as the Tigers went 10-4, it was a disappointment given the preseason hype they had.
Kansas is perhaps the Huskers biggest threat for the 2009 season. For starters, the Jayhawks get Nebraska at home and have a returning starter in Todd Reesing at quarterback while the Huskers will have a first-year starter.
Kansas will be a “tough out” because Mark Mangino (45-41) knows how to maximize the talent he has. The Jayhawks football program, however, despite its success under Mangino is always going to fight the perception of being a “basketball school,” which means Nebraska will generally have a talent advantage.
As for the hard part of “winning the Big 12 title.” In the South division, Baylor won’t be a factor any time soon. Texas A&M will probably bounce back to some degree. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have done a nice job under head coaches Mike Gundy and Mike Leach respectively. However, those two programs might have reached their ceiling because both programs will get their share of players that Oklahoma and Texas did not want.
As for OU and Texas? Both schools enjoy a recruiting advantage over Nebraska because of their success this decade and being in fertile recruiting areas. Texas has enjoyed a 115-26 record under head coach Mack Brown with a National title in 2005. Oklahoma has gone 109-24 under Bob Stoops with a National title in 2000.
What gives the Huskers hope is that both coaches have lost as many big games as they’ve won. And both teams should enter the 2009 season in the conversation of National title contenders.
Oklahoma is like the Atlanta Braves of college football. Yes, they have one title but they have been there three other times and had their doors blown off in the other one (55-19 loss to USC in 2004). Again, for as great as Oklahoma has been this decade, you can’t help but feel to some degree that it has underachieved.
As for Texas, which is 4-6 against OU this decade, you also get the feeling that with all of the talent, it acquires, it should have more than one title.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Do you root for your conference in Bowl Games and March Madness?
Every season when college football bowl games start or the NCAA basketball tournament gets underway, you frequently hear people talk about “rooting for teams in the conference.” The argument in favor of that is so the conference “looks good.”
While I can sort of understand that argument, I must say that I don’t just roll over on command when I hear it.
For example, I am a proud University of Nebraska graduate (Class of 1997). At Nebraska, football is king whereas basketball takes a backseat. Sorry, Husker fans. Let’s face it, if the football team went 5-7 and the basketball team made the Sweet 16, football would still be the No. 1 ticket. At other schools, the opposite would be true. At say, Kentucky, the football team could make a BCS bowl game and the basketball team could stumble to a .500. Basketball will always be king.
To take a Big 12 example, in 2007, Kansas’ football team went 12-1 including an Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech. Three months later, the basketball team defeated Memphis for the NCAA title. However, when I think of the Jayhawks, I think basketball. Why? Because they are consistently good. Whereas football, while it has had a few spikes of success, never has enjoyed sustained success. What I mean by sustained is say 10-year period.
It’s definitely rare to be powerful at both sports. Oklahoma, Texas, Florida and Ohio State have bucked the trend in recent years and have been strong at both sports but they are the exception rather than the rule.
Back to this whole argument of “rooting for your conference so it looks good.” Yes, a strong showing by your conference in bowl games and the NCAA tournament adds credibility for the conference. However, my argument is that if I wouldn’t root for say Oklahoma at any point in the regular season why should I change now? Plus, shouldn’t I be more worried about how my own team does?
Speaking as a Husker fan, in basketball, I root for the Big 12 without reservation. In football, I tend to go back and forth with that belief.
Why?
We haven’t made the NCAA tournament since 1997-1998 and have had four losing seasons since that year. I feel confident about the direction head coach Doc Sadler is taking the team but let’s face it, because basketball is not woven into the culture like football, it’ll take Doc longer than it will football head coach Bo Pelini to get the Huskers among the elite.
That said, I root for the Big 12 across the board because it’s not as if we are a threat to the Big 12 powers and I look at it as “well, if we’re not going to have NCAA tournament success then why not see someone else do it?”
In football, despite our 5-7 to 9-4 turnaround in 2008 under Pelini in his first season, we are obviously not where we are accustomed to being but I don’t think it’s going to be long.
Since other teams are a threat to us, my dislike for say Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Missouri and Kansas State runs deeper. Well, I can respect OU and Texas because while their programs and fan base have a cocky mentality at least they have produced National titles. Colorado, Missouri and Kansas State have not produced didley. Sorry, Colorado, your shared National title in 1990 will not get acknowledged since you needed five downs to beat a sorry ass Missouri team.
I will confess that one time in my life I did root for the Buffs was the 1995 Fiesta Bowl when a 10-1 Colorado team played a 6-4-1 Notre Dame team. Typical of Notre Dame getting bowl game preferential treatment. Damn elitists.
It might be blasphemy for a Husker fan to say this but I was glad to see Colorado kick Notre Dame’s ass 41-24. Another bit of irony with my dislike for the Buffs, one of my favorite Oakland Raiders from when I covered the team as a freelance writer from 1999-2005 was a Colorado Buffalo. He is Greg Biekert. I always admired the consistency in his performance and preparation.
This past bowl game season, I struggled with the idea of rooting for Missouri to beat Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl and Oklahoma to beat Florida in the BCS Bowl. On one hand, I want the Big 12 schools to win but my dislike for them runs so deep that it’s hard.