Sizing up the rest of the season in blackjack terms

Preseason predictions by game are always compelling if not conjecture. Well, I contributed to such a matter back in June: http://napavince.blogspot.com/2009/06/2009-nebraska-football-game-by-game.html

As I expected, Nebraska stands at 3-1, predicting relatively easy wins over Florida Atlantic (49-3), Arkansas State (38-9) and Louisiana-Lafayette (55-0) along with a close loss to Virginia Tech (16-15). Of course, who could have predicted the defeat at Virginia Tech to be of such heart-breaking proportions.

The Huskers enjoy a bye this week entering their Oct. 8 Thursday night ESPN telecast at Missouri. Faurot Field has been a house of horrors lately for Nebraska, which has given up 41 points in each of the last three head-to-head meetings in Columbia, Mo. And has not won their since 2001.

Excluding any Big 12 championship or bowl games, most people tabbed Nebraska as 8-4 on the low end and 10-2 on the high end. Our minds might change of course but we size up the Huskers remaining games and their chances for victory in blackjack terms:

Oct. 8 at Missouri:

Victory odds: No worse than even money.

The Tigers are 4-0 but it’s also a soft 4-0. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, everyone’s favorite in Nebraska for de-committing two years ago, has looked very good but the Tigers ground game and run defense are less than stellar. Mizzu also struggled to put away Bowling Green (27-20) and Nevada (31-21). Whoever is favored will be a slight one.

Oct. 17 vs. Texas Tech

Victory odds: No worse even money.

The Red Raiders are not the juggernaut they were last season, and keep in mind Nebraska was a desperation Joe Ganz interception away from pulling off the upset in Lubbock in a 37-31 overtime loss. Texas Tech might not be offensive machine it normally is but they are still like a fast break basketball team that needs to be lured into a halfcourt game.

Oct. 24 vs. Iowa State

Victory odds: Blackjack

The Cyclones are 3-1 but got hammered 35-3 by instate rival Iowa, the only team Iowa State has played with a pulse. There’s a good chance the Cyclones won’t win a game the rest of the way. OK, at best they win one or two but don’t count on it happening in Lincoln.

Oct. 31 at Baylor

Victory odds: Blackjack

With quarterback Robert Griffin healthy, Nebraska had about a 65 percent to win. With Griffin on the shelf the rest of the season with a knee injury, the Huskers victory chances go up to about 85 percent. The Bears have been overmatched since entering the Big XII in 1996 but were viewed by some prognosticators as a “bowl eligible candidate but seriously, even with Griffin who else were they going to beat in Big XII besides Iowa State?

Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma

Victory odds: Likely dealer win

The Sooners have shown no shortage of resilience since falling 14-13 to BYU in a game that saw quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford sustain a broken collar-bone. OU has since rebounded to defeat Idaho State (64-0) and Tulsa (45-0) with backup Landry Jones at the helm. The Sooners will probably face a pretty pissed off Miami team. Keep in mind, the overhyped Hurricanes got taken to the woodshed with a 31-10 loss at Virginia Tech Saturday. Bradford might be back by the time OU comes to Lincoln but even without him, the Sooners will be tough to beat.

Nov. 14 at Kansas

Victory odds: No worse than even money

This game will have plenty of Big XII North implications. The Jayhawks are 4-0 and faced their first true test last week at home against Southern Mississippi. Kansas did not pass with flying colors but a 35-28 win against a good Conference USA team is nothing to scoff about. KU will be a tough out as long as Mark Mangino is the coach but Nebraska does have a talent advantage not to mention equal if not superior coaching with Bo Pelini.

Nov. 21 vs. Kansas State

Victory odds: Blackjack

The Wildcats are showing far greater signs of life in Bill Snyder the Sequel than they did under Ron Prince but let’s face it, this is a reclamation project. If K-State lost 73-31 to a down and out Nebraska team in 2007 what makes you think they’ll beat what figures to a Husker team that is getting better at this stage of the season.

Nov. 27 at Colorado

Victory odds: No worse than even money

I know most Husker fans are thinking this game is a slamdunk and that it’s not a rivalry. Unfortunately, the latter misses the point. Nebraska has won the majority of head-to-head contests but very few have been blowouts.

CONCLUSION

With Pelini’s coaching staff, Nebraska will occasionally win a game you don’t think it’ll win. They’ll rarely if ever loss a game that looks like a slamdunk to win. They’ll win no worse than half of their bubble games.

A 9-3 regular season looks like a pretty solid bet.

Griffin loss a huge blow to Baylor

Nebraska’s next two football opponents might be at Missouri (Oct. 8) and home for Texas Tech (Oct. 10) – two games that could say quite a bit about how the Huskers finish Year Two under head coach Bo Pelini.

However, it was hard not to notice the shockwaves coming out of Waco, Texas, on Sunday night where the Huskers visit Baylor for a matchup on Halloween. No pun intended but the news that emanated from Waco suddenly makes Nebraska’s trip there less scary.

Rivals.com, reported that Baylor sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin III and kick returner Mikail Baker will both miss the rest of the 2009 season due to season-ending knee injuries.

An MRI exam conducted Sunday afternoon revealed Griffin's right knee had an isolated tear in his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). The injury occurred during the first quarter of Baylor's 68-13 victory over Northwestern State on Saturday.

Baker, a senior defensive back and return specialist for the Bears, also suffered a season-ending injury during Saturday's contest with what an MRI revealed to be an ACL tear and a tear to his medial and lateral meniscus.

X-rays taken Sunday were negative on backup quarterback Blake Szymanski's shoulder, and an MRI revealed a contusion to his right shoulder. The status of Szymanski, who took a hit on a rush near the goal-line Saturday, is described as "day-to-day" by Baylor's training staff.

Suffice it to say, this is a huge blow to the Bears. As a true freshman in 2008, Griffin earned Big 12 Newcomer of the Year honors. Griffin guided the Bears, who have been enormously overmatched since joining the Big 12 in 1996, to a 4-8 record last season and were off to a 2-1 start this season. One of those defeats last season was a 32-20 setback to Nebraska in Lincoln.

Most Husker fans and media members viewed Baylor as a trap game as it comes one week before a home contest against Oklahoma, which is without its starting quarterback Sam Bradford (broken collar bone suffered in the season-opener). However, the Sooners have more than enough talent to get by most teams. Baylor, on the other hand, does not have that luxury.

With Griffin gone, the Huskers go from slight favorite to significant favorite. Personally, I was never one that thought Baylor was going to be a humungous challenge for Nebraska, but this will definitely make it easier. Keep in kind, the Huskers defeated Baylor with Griffon last season at a time in which Nebraska was still figuring out Pelini’s scheme. Not that the Huskers have perfected his scheme but having allowed just 28 points in four games would suggest they are on their way.

Make no mistake, Griffin is a phenom. I guess we'll find out how much of Baylor's success was due to Griffin, and how much of it was the talent around him. Something tells me it is the former.

Granted, these are not the helpless Bears that we knew in previous years but the threat that Baylor posed to Nebraska was always overstated in my opinion. Nebraska is a better football team. Period. And it's probably not that close. Yes, Griffin is a fine player and he may have had some highlights against the Huskers but unless Nebraska really its thumb up its butt it would not have lost to a Griffin led Baylor team.

True, Baylor is actually a decent team because of Griffin. Why Griffin went to Baylor rather than Texas or OU is beyond me. He would have been a Heisman candidate at one of those schools.

Florida Atlantic no pushover -- but not a landmine game either

As one that frequently visits collegefootballnews.com, I am always intrigued by the term “landmine games.” That term is often used in association with games where your team is likely favored but if not careful could wind up on the short end.

For Nebraska, the Baylor Bears have commonly been seen among the mainstream media that covers the team along with message board posters and bloggers as such a team that could spoil the Huskers fortunes in 2009. For starters, Nebraska visits Waco on Oct. 31 – one week before it hosts what is likely to be a Top Ten if not Top Five Oklahoma team. The argument has beckoned that the Huskers could be “looking ahead” to OU. I say, baloney because Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini is just the type of coach to preach the message, “you’re not good enough to overlook anyone.” Plus, Pelini and his staff have shown the ability to “coach in the moment.”

Baylor gave the Huskers a pretty good tussle in Lincoln last year before the Big Red prevailed 32-20. Bears quarterback Robert Griffin gave the Nebraska defense fits (rushing for 121 yards, throwing for 134 more) but keep in mind the Blackshirts were still finding their way at that point.

The Bears, who went 4-8 last season, might not be the easy out they’ve been in past years but let’s keep in mind 1995 was the last season Baylor went over the .500 mark, going 7-4 that year. The closest to breaking even the Bears came since then was 5-6 in 2005.

CFN.com has actually tabbed the Huskers opening game opponent (Florida Atlantic) on Sept. 5 as a landmine game. I won’t disagree that Owls will not be your “name the score” type of win. In fact, I can very easily see matters unfolding like last year’s 47-24 opening game win over Western Michigan. The type of game where Nebraska was not in danger of losing per se but close enough to keep the starters in the game much of the way.

However, I think CFN.com (which is a reputable news organization) errs in judgment when it prints, “In 2007, Ball State came in to Lincoln and came within an eyelash of pulling off the upset, losing in a fun 41-40 shootout. Husker fans came away raving about QB Nate Davis, and they'll do the same this year after seeing FAU QB Rusty Smith. The Owls are fearless road warriors, and while they don't have enough on defense to beat Nebraska, they're good enough to make part one of the Husker's three-game date with Sun Belt teams a memorable battle.”

There are two things wrong with that statement. True, it won’t be the first time the Owls have faced a traditional power. FAU has faced teams from a BCS conference 16 times. Keep in mind, however, that Florida Atlantic is 1-15 all-time vs. BCS conference teams and has been outscored 678-170 in those games.
Also, comparing the Ball State game of 2007 to the 2009 opener is much to do about nothing. There is no way you compare the 2009 Nebraska team (while still flawed) to the one that stepped on the field against Ball State. That defense was truly awful (maybe the worst that ever set foot on the Memorial Stadium turf) and had just gotten clubbed to death by USC one week earlier. I don't see that happening in the first game. In fact, I think Nebraska should be able to pound the ball right down Florida Atlantic’s throat.
I will give Owls head coach Howard “Give Me Some Conditioner For My Mustache” Schnellenberger credit for one thing. Since beating Minnesota in 2007, he has made it clear Florida Atlantic’s goal when playing the big boys isn’t just to get a big check -- he expects his teams to compete even if the opponent has been playing football at a much higher level for a much longer period of time.

The Huskers must be mindful of that because losing this game would be devastating on opening day and at home. It could spiral the season out of control but I don't see it happening. The Huskers will not lose this game.

Florida Atlantic (7-6 in 2008) took some beatdowns when they went to BCS schools (52-10 loss at Texas, 17-0 loss at Michigan State, 37-3 loss at Minnesota) last year and they lost quite a bit from that team. I don't think this one qualifies as a scare game.

If there's a landmine game on the schedule, it's the next week against Arkansas State. Nebraska could get caught looking ahead to Virginia Tech, Arkansas St has played well against Big 12 teams in the recent past, and the Huskers 'let down' game last season was in Week Two against San Jose State (35-12 win).

I also actually think the players and the team is looking to unload on somebody and make a point. Florida Atlantic just happens to be first up. If that happens, it's possible they could roll into game two overconfident but I think Pelini will keep them grounded.

Well, there is always a chance as Michigan found out with Appalachian State in the Big House in 2007 but I think it's remote and believe we will win, but stranger things have happened on opening day. Point being, I think Nebraska has to show up every game because the Huskers are not a point like they were in the 90's where they just show up and blow teams out. I hope they will be soon but the fact is they are not there yet.

2009 Nebraska football game-by-game crystal ball

Huskers Illustrated, you have inspired me to reach to greater heights. I just had my official 2009 football yearbook mailed to my home in Napa, CA this past weekend.

The magazine previews the 2009 season in-depth with Ndamukong Suh -- the Huskers hulking defensive tackle featured on the front cover. If looks could kill quarterbacks like Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing, Zac Robinson and Robert Griffon would be a pile of dust.

The edition includes but is not limited to roster breakdown, opponent breakdown, position breakdown and media breakdown. Media members that cover the team regularly pick the Huskers record plus a synopsis for the reason behind their picks. The most pessimistic are Ken Hambleton (Lincoln Journal Star) and Terry Douglass (Grand island Independent). Both pick the Huskers to finish 8-5 including their bowl game.

The X-Factor is taking into account which media members pick the Big Red to reach the Big 12 Title Game. Keep in mind, some people are favoring Kansas. The ones are definitely picking Nebraska to win the division are Dave Hunt (KLKN TV Lincoln). Chris Schmidt (Huskers Illustratred radio), Lane Grindle (Husker Sports Network), Brian Christopherson (Lincoln Journal Star), Brian Rosenthal (Lincoln Journal Star), Jeff Wilkerson (KLMS, Lincoln), Sean Callahan (Huskersillustrated.com), Dirk Chatlain (Omaha World-Herald), John Schuetz (KETV, Omaha), Mike’L Severe (KOZN, Omaha) and Matt Schick (KETV, Omaha). The records range from 9-5 to 11-3. The last time the Huskers won the Big 12 North in 2006 under Bill Callahan, the team went 9-5 but perhaps should have gone 11-3 -- or at least 10-4 anyhow.

Though I am a member of the mainstream media here in the Napa Valley, I am not among the mainstream media in Nebraska covering the team even though I was at one time in my life. So here at Wine Country Husker headquarters at my non-palatial condo here in Napa, CA, I have decided to get bold and take a stab at the Huskers 2009 game-by-game breakdown. Last season, I picked 10-3 in Bo Pelini’s first season with Nebraska beating Wisconsin in the Alamo Bowl. I was one game off as Nebraska went 9-4, beating Clemson in the Gator Bowl.

I have sipped a little bit Kool-Aid as we speak. The Napa Valley kind but here’s our breakdown:

Nebraska 38, Florida Atlantic 17

The Howard Schnellenberger storylines resonate throughout the week. Florida Atlantic is one of the best the Sun Belt has to offer but the Huskers race to a 21-3 lead at halftime and that advantage swells to 35-3 after three quarters. Roy Helu rushes for three TDs and Zac Lee throws for two more. The Owls get two touchdowns in garbage time. Nebraska’s more experienced defense generates three turnovers and five sacks.

Nebraska 41, Arkansas State 14

For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers produce a big lead, this time 24-7 at halftime and 31-14 after three quarters. Prince Amukamara’s interception (one of three picks for the Blackshirts) for a touchdown in the fourth quarter punctuates the win. Quentin Castille rushes for three touchdowns while Zac Lee throws for another.

Virginia Tech 24, Nebraska 20

Both offenses moved the ball efficiently in the first half in front of a nationally televised audience. The Hokies lead 21-14 at halftime but in the second half both defenses bowed their necks, especially in the red zone. The Huskers are still seeking that truly signature win against an elite club. Nebraska battles hard but falls short. Bo Pelini says in his postgame press conference, “moral victories suck.” Pelini does not need to make that statement but further cements his status among Husker fans as “Our guy.”

Nebraska 44, Louisiana-Lafeyette 10

The Huskers start like a house of fire looking to put the Virginia Tech loss behind them on the way to a 27-7 halftime lead. Nebraska’s best defense was a keep-away offense as Quentin Castille rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns. Helu added 65 more while Lee threw for a pair of touchdowns. Kody Spano gets into the box score with a fourth quarter scoring pass. The Huskers are 3-1 heading into Big 12 play with two dragons to slay.

Nebraska 41, Missouri 24

The real Missouri is back and the Huskers slay a dragon in what has been a House of Horrors. The first three quarters are a seesaw battle in front of a Thursday night ESPN audience as the Tigers erase a 20-10 Nebraska lead at halftimes to take a 24-20 lead after three quarters. Bo Pelini challenges his team on the sideline and they respond. The Huskers dominate the fourth quarter as Lee throws for two touchdown tosses while Blake Lawrence’s 57-yard interception return to paydirt seals the win late in the fourth quarter.

Nebraska 35, Texas Tech 24

The Huskers slay yet another dragon as the Memorial Stadium noise is deafening as the Huskers play their 1,200th game in school history. Just like last year, the Husker offense plays keep-away led by Roy Helu’s 146 yards rushing and two touchdowns. The Huskers lead 14-10 half but made the Red Raiders fight uphill even further as Zac Lee connected with Mike McNeill for a touchdown pass. The Blackshirt defense bends but does not break. Ndamukong Suh intercepts a pass – shades of LeKevin Smith’s INT – only he holds on to the ball and the Huskers seal the win.

Nebraska 34, Iowa State 3

Coming off two emotional wins, Nebraska starts slow as the game was a scoreless tie after one quarter but takes a 14-0 halftime lead as Zac Lee connects with Mike McNeill for a touchdown and Quentin Castille powers his way into the zone. The Huskers control the line of scrimmage with the O-and-D Lines. Defensively, the Huskers produced five sacks and two interceptions.

Nebraska 31, Baylor 20

The dreaded trap game in Waco before a marquee matchup the following week in Lincoln. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin gives the Huskers headaches in the first half as the game is tied at 17-all at intermission. The Blackshirts put the clamps on Griffin in the second half while Zac Lee connects with Menelik Holt for two second half touchdown tosses to seal the Husker win.

Oklahoma 38, Nebraska 21

The crowd noise is off the hook, just like old times for NU-OU matchups. The Huskers show they have narrowed the gap but OU still has superior talent and depth. The Sooners lead 24-17 at halftime before pulling away in the second half. Sooner head coach Bob Stoops, known for his arrogance, says, “Don’t be fooled, Nebraska is on its way back.”


Nebraska 31, Kansas 21

The Huskers see this as a chance to close in on the division title and they do in a hard fought road victory. The Jayhawks strike first but Castille answers with two rushing touchdowns to give the Huskers the lead for good. Nebraska puts it away in the second half with an Alex Henery field goal and a Zac Lee to Chris Brooks touchdown. The Blackshirts force three turnovers and harass Todd Reesing throughout the day.

Nebraska 41, Kansas State 7

Bill Snyder has the Wildcats playing better but they still lack the depth to beat the Huskers. Nebraska leads 17-0 after one quarter and 27-0 at halftimes and wins going away on Senior Day. Nebraska gets its backups some much needed work heading into the bye week.

Nebraska 23, Colorado 17 (OT)

Husker fans might not like calling this a “rivarly” game but anything can and does happen when these two teams meet. With the Big 12 North title in hand, the Huskers fight off a gallant Buffs effort. Nebraska wins the overtime coin toss and defers. Ndamukong Suh gets a sack, forced fumble and recovered fumble all in the same play. The Huskers get the ball back and go for the jugular as Zac Lee hits Mike McNeill for a 25-yard strike to win the game. Denver Post communist, err columnist Woody Paige writes his typical diarrhea of the mouth column the next day.

Big 12 Championship Game

Texas 28, Nebraska 24

Nebraska needs a win to secure a BCS bowl game while Texas still has National Title hopes. The Longhorns break Nebraska’s heart again as Colt McCoy hits Jordan Shipley with just over three minutes remaining in a seesaw battle. The Huskers bid to respond with a game-winning drive falls short. Bo Pelini challenges his team to finish the season with authority.

Cotton Bowl

Nebraska 34, Alabama 17

The Holliday Bowl expresses interest in the Huskers while Nebraska has never been too keen on the Cotton Bowl. However, Cotton Bowl officials see a prime opportunity to match two brand name programs together – Nebraska and Alabama. Bo Pelini promises not to go for any fake punts on his own 30, a la Bill Callahan. Sorry -- could not resist.

The Huskers lead wire-to-wire as Zac Lee converts some clutch third down passes. Lee throws for two touchdowns and runs for another. The Blackshirts force four turnovers and record three quarterback sacks.

Husker fans say, “Take that, SEC!”