Preseason polls not worth the paper they are written on

The preseason college football polls are out for the 2012 season. Well, at least on the coaches’ side and Nebraska is tabbed No. 16 sandwiched between No. 15 Texas and No. 17 TCU.


What’s always interesting about preseason rankings is listening to talk shows, reading message boards, Twitter, Facebook, etc., is the reactions and banter that the rankings elicit. Just a gut feeling but No. 16 is perhaps the highest I would have imagined the Huskers being ranked and is not as surprising as one would think considering they went 9-4 last season. Though Husker head coach Bo Pelini has had a hot and cold relationship with local media and fans, he does have a lot of respect within the coaching profession. In addition, Nebraska has a third-year starter returning at quarterback in Taylor Martinez. Yes, he has been a polarizing figure among local media and fans but pollsters will normally boost a team higher if it returners experience at quarterback.  


The self-proclaimed gurus take into account who is coming back and how many upper classmen a team has for leadership purposes. Nebraska has more than it has had in a long time so such a rating is not unexpected. Running back Rex Burkhead and Martinez bring experience and there most likely won’t be any freshman starting this year. As for the coaches, it’s as much about tradition and respect as anything else at this juncture.


While everyone is entitled to think whether or not a team is ranked too low, too high or just about right, ratings at this time is nothing more than a popularity contest. It’s good to be rated and thought of highly, but it’s a matter of earning your keep when it’s all said and done. Playing the kind of schedule Nebraska has won’t hide any flaws and if the Huskers are worthy it won’t be a fluke come November. There is not a game on the schedule the Huskers cannot win but the slate also has its share of swing games. While the quality at the top of the Big 10 Conference is not presently as good as say the SEC, Big 12 or Pac 12, it could be argued that the quality in the middle is stronger than those conferences.


Preseason rankings should always be taken with a grain of salt and while college football will always have teams that surprise and disappoint, the college game is also much easier to predict before the season than the NFL. There is definitely more parity in the college game than in years past but not quite like the NFL. In college the 85-player scholarship limit works similarly to the NFL’s salary cap and while it’s not unusual to see college players transfer schools, you won’t see it happen within its own conference. It’s not like you would ever see Tim Tebow transfer from Florida to Alabama or Tommie Frazier go from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In the NFL, however, free agency runs rampant. Deion Sanders played for both the Cowboys and Redskins. Marcus Allen played for both the Raiders and Chiefs.


The last 15 or so years in the NFL, it is not uncommon for a team to go from 4-12 one year to say 13-3 the next. In college, however, such a turnaround is likely to be a 2-5 year process. That can also depend on the stature of your program. In 2007-2008, Nebraska went from 5-7 to 9-4. In 2010-2011, Michigan spiked from 7-6 to 11-2. Those are two programs that have enough name recognition that is such where they will have enough material to make a quick turnaround if they have a bad year. However, at a perennial loser program, going from 3-9 to 9-3 is more likely to take 2-5 years.


That said, college football preseason prognostications are more likely to be accurate than the NFL.

Will the North rise up?

Some conversations you can absolutely count on hearing. When it comes to Big XII football, you can definitely count on media members and/or message board posters to talk ad nauseam about the South division’s supremacy over the North.

It’s hard to argue against that idea now because since the conference was formed in 1996 since the South has won nine of the 14 Big XII championship games. The last time a North division team won it was 2003 (Kansas State).

However, the question that bears asking is will the pendulum swing back toward the North any time soon? Listening to some people you would think the answer was a resounding “never.” Unfortunately, those same people forget that when the conference was initially formed the North was the superior division. Nebraska was at its zenith in the midst of a 60-3 run with three National Championships in four seasons as well as four undefeated regular seasons in five years. Colorado and Kansas State also had outstanding teams in that stretch and if not for Nebraska, who’s to say they might not have won a National title? Of course, it wouldn’t be the same without Kansas State and Colorado fans living in the world of “if.”

In that same stretch, keep in mind that the South division teams that were strong now were not strong then. Oklahoma was pathetic. Texas was decent but far from what it is now. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State were so-so but not as prominently on the radar as they are now.

So will the balance of power ever shift back to the North? Some people seem convinced that it will never happen. Granted, the South already has a built-in leg up over the North in that you have two brand name programs (Texas and Oklahoma) while the North has one (Nebraska). It’s hard to imagine Kansas State being at that level any time soon. Kansas, Missouri and occasionally Colorado are solid. The one with the best chance of staying power might be Missouri because Columbia lies between two pretty fertile recruiting areas (Kansas City and St. Louis).

Because Texas and Oklahoma are in two fertile and highly coveted recruiting areas, most people seem convinced those programs will stay ahead of the pack. Unfortunately, what those same people forget is that Texas and Oklahoma have always had that recruiting advantage over Nebraska. Yes, that includes the years they both stunk. I just find it laughable how people only talk about those advantages when a team is good.

David McWilliams had the same recruiting advantage at Texas when he was the head coach from 1986-1991. What did that get him? A mediocre 31-26 record. His successor, John Mackovic had the same advantage from 1992-1997. What did that get him? A mediocre 41-28-1 record. Look at Oklahoma. John Blake had the same recruiting advantage from 1996-1998. What was his record? A most impressive 12-22.

Look at USC in a recruiting ground like Los Angeles. That’s about as fertile as it gets. That advantage got Paul Hackett a whopping 19-18 record from 1998-2000. It got Larry Smith a 44-25-3 record from 1987-1992 but not consistent success. Lest we forget it got Ted Tollner a pretty average 26-20 record from 1982-1986.

Granted, it’s hard to imagine Texas, Oklahoma or USC going in the tank barring NCAA sanctions, disastrous coaching changes or other bizarre acts of implosion.

Keep in mind, though, it wasn’t long ago that we could not have imagined Nebraska imploding but it happened. And if it can happen them it can happen now.

2009 Nebraska football game-by-game crystal ball

Huskers Illustrated, you have inspired me to reach to greater heights. I just had my official 2009 football yearbook mailed to my home in Napa, CA this past weekend.

The magazine previews the 2009 season in-depth with Ndamukong Suh -- the Huskers hulking defensive tackle featured on the front cover. If looks could kill quarterbacks like Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing, Zac Robinson and Robert Griffon would be a pile of dust.

The edition includes but is not limited to roster breakdown, opponent breakdown, position breakdown and media breakdown. Media members that cover the team regularly pick the Huskers record plus a synopsis for the reason behind their picks. The most pessimistic are Ken Hambleton (Lincoln Journal Star) and Terry Douglass (Grand island Independent). Both pick the Huskers to finish 8-5 including their bowl game.

The X-Factor is taking into account which media members pick the Big Red to reach the Big 12 Title Game. Keep in mind, some people are favoring Kansas. The ones are definitely picking Nebraska to win the division are Dave Hunt (KLKN TV Lincoln). Chris Schmidt (Huskers Illustratred radio), Lane Grindle (Husker Sports Network), Brian Christopherson (Lincoln Journal Star), Brian Rosenthal (Lincoln Journal Star), Jeff Wilkerson (KLMS, Lincoln), Sean Callahan (Huskersillustrated.com), Dirk Chatlain (Omaha World-Herald), John Schuetz (KETV, Omaha), Mike’L Severe (KOZN, Omaha) and Matt Schick (KETV, Omaha). The records range from 9-5 to 11-3. The last time the Huskers won the Big 12 North in 2006 under Bill Callahan, the team went 9-5 but perhaps should have gone 11-3 -- or at least 10-4 anyhow.

Though I am a member of the mainstream media here in the Napa Valley, I am not among the mainstream media in Nebraska covering the team even though I was at one time in my life. So here at Wine Country Husker headquarters at my non-palatial condo here in Napa, CA, I have decided to get bold and take a stab at the Huskers 2009 game-by-game breakdown. Last season, I picked 10-3 in Bo Pelini’s first season with Nebraska beating Wisconsin in the Alamo Bowl. I was one game off as Nebraska went 9-4, beating Clemson in the Gator Bowl.

I have sipped a little bit Kool-Aid as we speak. The Napa Valley kind but here’s our breakdown:

Nebraska 38, Florida Atlantic 17

The Howard Schnellenberger storylines resonate throughout the week. Florida Atlantic is one of the best the Sun Belt has to offer but the Huskers race to a 21-3 lead at halftime and that advantage swells to 35-3 after three quarters. Roy Helu rushes for three TDs and Zac Lee throws for two more. The Owls get two touchdowns in garbage time. Nebraska’s more experienced defense generates three turnovers and five sacks.

Nebraska 41, Arkansas State 14

For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers produce a big lead, this time 24-7 at halftime and 31-14 after three quarters. Prince Amukamara’s interception (one of three picks for the Blackshirts) for a touchdown in the fourth quarter punctuates the win. Quentin Castille rushes for three touchdowns while Zac Lee throws for another.

Virginia Tech 24, Nebraska 20

Both offenses moved the ball efficiently in the first half in front of a nationally televised audience. The Hokies lead 21-14 at halftime but in the second half both defenses bowed their necks, especially in the red zone. The Huskers are still seeking that truly signature win against an elite club. Nebraska battles hard but falls short. Bo Pelini says in his postgame press conference, “moral victories suck.” Pelini does not need to make that statement but further cements his status among Husker fans as “Our guy.”

Nebraska 44, Louisiana-Lafeyette 10

The Huskers start like a house of fire looking to put the Virginia Tech loss behind them on the way to a 27-7 halftime lead. Nebraska’s best defense was a keep-away offense as Quentin Castille rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns. Helu added 65 more while Lee threw for a pair of touchdowns. Kody Spano gets into the box score with a fourth quarter scoring pass. The Huskers are 3-1 heading into Big 12 play with two dragons to slay.

Nebraska 41, Missouri 24

The real Missouri is back and the Huskers slay a dragon in what has been a House of Horrors. The first three quarters are a seesaw battle in front of a Thursday night ESPN audience as the Tigers erase a 20-10 Nebraska lead at halftimes to take a 24-20 lead after three quarters. Bo Pelini challenges his team on the sideline and they respond. The Huskers dominate the fourth quarter as Lee throws for two touchdown tosses while Blake Lawrence’s 57-yard interception return to paydirt seals the win late in the fourth quarter.

Nebraska 35, Texas Tech 24

The Huskers slay yet another dragon as the Memorial Stadium noise is deafening as the Huskers play their 1,200th game in school history. Just like last year, the Husker offense plays keep-away led by Roy Helu’s 146 yards rushing and two touchdowns. The Huskers lead 14-10 half but made the Red Raiders fight uphill even further as Zac Lee connected with Mike McNeill for a touchdown pass. The Blackshirt defense bends but does not break. Ndamukong Suh intercepts a pass – shades of LeKevin Smith’s INT – only he holds on to the ball and the Huskers seal the win.

Nebraska 34, Iowa State 3

Coming off two emotional wins, Nebraska starts slow as the game was a scoreless tie after one quarter but takes a 14-0 halftime lead as Zac Lee connects with Mike McNeill for a touchdown and Quentin Castille powers his way into the zone. The Huskers control the line of scrimmage with the O-and-D Lines. Defensively, the Huskers produced five sacks and two interceptions.

Nebraska 31, Baylor 20

The dreaded trap game in Waco before a marquee matchup the following week in Lincoln. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin gives the Huskers headaches in the first half as the game is tied at 17-all at intermission. The Blackshirts put the clamps on Griffin in the second half while Zac Lee connects with Menelik Holt for two second half touchdown tosses to seal the Husker win.

Oklahoma 38, Nebraska 21

The crowd noise is off the hook, just like old times for NU-OU matchups. The Huskers show they have narrowed the gap but OU still has superior talent and depth. The Sooners lead 24-17 at halftime before pulling away in the second half. Sooner head coach Bob Stoops, known for his arrogance, says, “Don’t be fooled, Nebraska is on its way back.”


Nebraska 31, Kansas 21

The Huskers see this as a chance to close in on the division title and they do in a hard fought road victory. The Jayhawks strike first but Castille answers with two rushing touchdowns to give the Huskers the lead for good. Nebraska puts it away in the second half with an Alex Henery field goal and a Zac Lee to Chris Brooks touchdown. The Blackshirts force three turnovers and harass Todd Reesing throughout the day.

Nebraska 41, Kansas State 7

Bill Snyder has the Wildcats playing better but they still lack the depth to beat the Huskers. Nebraska leads 17-0 after one quarter and 27-0 at halftimes and wins going away on Senior Day. Nebraska gets its backups some much needed work heading into the bye week.

Nebraska 23, Colorado 17 (OT)

Husker fans might not like calling this a “rivarly” game but anything can and does happen when these two teams meet. With the Big 12 North title in hand, the Huskers fight off a gallant Buffs effort. Nebraska wins the overtime coin toss and defers. Ndamukong Suh gets a sack, forced fumble and recovered fumble all in the same play. The Huskers get the ball back and go for the jugular as Zac Lee hits Mike McNeill for a 25-yard strike to win the game. Denver Post communist, err columnist Woody Paige writes his typical diarrhea of the mouth column the next day.

Big 12 Championship Game

Texas 28, Nebraska 24

Nebraska needs a win to secure a BCS bowl game while Texas still has National Title hopes. The Longhorns break Nebraska’s heart again as Colt McCoy hits Jordan Shipley with just over three minutes remaining in a seesaw battle. The Huskers bid to respond with a game-winning drive falls short. Bo Pelini challenges his team to finish the season with authority.

Cotton Bowl

Nebraska 34, Alabama 17

The Holliday Bowl expresses interest in the Huskers while Nebraska has never been too keen on the Cotton Bowl. However, Cotton Bowl officials see a prime opportunity to match two brand name programs together – Nebraska and Alabama. Bo Pelini promises not to go for any fake punts on his own 30, a la Bill Callahan. Sorry -- could not resist.

The Huskers lead wire-to-wire as Zac Lee converts some clutch third down passes. Lee throws for two touchdowns and runs for another. The Blackshirts force four turnovers and record three quarterback sacks.

Husker fans say, “Take that, SEC!”

Reaching the Big 12 title game will be easier than winning it

“Expectations,” “progress,” and “process” are three terms that Nebraska football fans have heard ad nausea the past few years.

The context of those words have centered around how expectations were lowered in the Bill Callahan years and how winning the Big 12 North title in 2006 (its first since 1999) was considered progress. With Bo Pelini as the head coach, he has constantly talked about “the process.”

I remember in the moments after Nebraska’s 37-14 win over Colorado, players paraded around the field with the Big 12 North title trophy. You would have thought the Huskers won a BCS bowl game. I was happy as a fan because it was the first step necessary for the program getting back where it needed to be.

The Huskers then lost the Big 12 title game 21-7 to Oklahoma and then 17-14 to Auburn in the Cotton Bowl. The team plummeted to a 5-7 season in 2007, which would be Callahan’s last, and then rebounded with a 9-4 season a year ago in Pelini’s first season.

I remember conversing with many fellow Husker fans last year at this time saying that going from 5-7 to 9-4 is the easy the part. Going from 9-4 to 11-2 will be the hard part. There are two ways to look at that statement. Nebraska lost two games by less than seven points (35-30 to Virginia Tech and 37-31 in overtime to Texas Tech). So with a couple of breaks, Nebraska could have been 11-2. That said, the higher a team strives to climb the ladder, the smaller the margin for error becomes.

As for winning the Big 12 championship, “getting to” the title game should be the easy part but “winning it” will be the hard part.

With the Huskers developing their program the right way under Pelini, the team should win the Big 12 North division seven or eight years out of every ten. I say that because I do not see a program in the North that is going to go on a consistent run of success.

Iowa State will never be a long term threat and it certainly won’t be in 2009 since it is breaking in a new head coach. Yes, Iowa State upset the No. 12 ranked Huskers 19-10 in 1992 and bested Nebraska in 2002 and 2004 but let’s face it, aside from 1992; the Cyclones only beat Nebraska when it was down. The Huskers went 7-7 in 2002 and 5-7 in 2004.

Iowa State’s best chances to win the Big 12 North came in 2004 and 2005, it not only failed to win it but fell short when the division winner (Colorado) went 4-4 and then 5-3. Best case scenario, the Cyclones might have a few years where they go 7-5 or even 8-4 but they are not going to be churning out 9-3 or better on a regular basis because the Cyclones will get a lot of recruits that Nebraska or Iowa didn’t want.

Bill Snyder returns as head coach to Kansas State for a second stint. The Wildcats defense was rated a Kevin Cosgrove-esque 117th in total defense and had its starting quarterback (Josh Freeman) leave for the NFL. Best case scenario, K-State goes 6-6 in 2009.

Snyder deserves enormous credit for turning around a once moribund program that went 299-510 before 1989. Snyder posted a record of 136-68-1 at K-State but it should also be pointed out that the Wildcats went 9-13 his final two years. Plus, how many of these “coming home” stories really work? Not many.

I have to think that Colorado is not going to be bitten by the injury bug like last year during a 5-7 season. Yes, the Buffs have 15 starters returning but they still have the look of an 8-4 team at best – and that’s being charitable. Colorado won the Division four times from 2001-2005 but in two of those years they had conference records of 4-4 (2004) and 5-3 (2005). That’s not exactly taking control of the division.

I also do not think Dan Hawkins is the right guy. Hawkins went 53-11 at Boise State but is overmatched at the Big 12 level, going 13-24. Plus, CU football is not woven into the culture. When people think of football in Colorado, they think of the Denver Broncos.

We’ll find out how good of a coach Missouri’s Gary Pinkel really is because the Tigers lose seven players on defense, and its offense will be gutted with the graduation of Chase Daniel and Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin’s departure to the NFL.

Because Columbia, Mo., is between Kansas City and St. Louis (two fairly fertile grounds for talent), the Tigers will always have some talent but they just don’t strike you as a program that will put together runs like the last two seasons (22-6). While I wouldn’t consider the 2008 season a failure as the Tigers went 10-4, it was a disappointment given the preseason hype they had.

Kansas is perhaps the Huskers biggest threat for the 2009 season. For starters, the Jayhawks get Nebraska at home and have a returning starter in Todd Reesing at quarterback while the Huskers will have a first-year starter.

Kansas will be a “tough out” because Mark Mangino (45-41) knows how to maximize the talent he has. The Jayhawks football program, however, despite its success under Mangino is always going to fight the perception of being a “basketball school,” which means Nebraska will generally have a talent advantage.

As for the hard part of “winning the Big 12 title.” In the South division, Baylor won’t be a factor any time soon. Texas A&M will probably bounce back to some degree. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have done a nice job under head coaches Mike Gundy and Mike Leach respectively. However, those two programs might have reached their ceiling because both programs will get their share of players that Oklahoma and Texas did not want.

As for OU and Texas? Both schools enjoy a recruiting advantage over Nebraska because of their success this decade and being in fertile recruiting areas. Texas has enjoyed a 115-26 record under head coach Mack Brown with a National title in 2005. Oklahoma has gone 109-24 under Bob Stoops with a National title in 2000.

What gives the Huskers hope is that both coaches have lost as many big games as they’ve won. And both teams should enter the 2009 season in the conversation of National title contenders.

Oklahoma is like the Atlanta Braves of college football. Yes, they have one title but they have been there three other times and had their doors blown off in the other one (55-19 loss to USC in 2004). Again, for as great as Oklahoma has been this decade, you can’t help but feel to some degree that it has underachieved.

As for Texas, which is 4-6 against OU this decade, you also get the feeling that with all of the talent, it acquires, it should have more than one title.

Do you root for your conference in Bowl Games and March Madness?

To root or not to root. To be rooted for or not to be rooted for.

Every season when college football bowl games start or the NCAA basketball tournament gets underway, you frequently hear people talk about “rooting for teams in the conference.” The argument in favor of that is so the conference “looks good.”

While I can sort of understand that argument, I must say that I don’t just roll over on command when I hear it.

For example, I am a proud University of Nebraska graduate (Class of 1997). At Nebraska, football is king whereas basketball takes a backseat. Sorry, Husker fans. Let’s face it, if the football team went 5-7 and the basketball team made the Sweet 16, football would still be the No. 1 ticket. At other schools, the opposite would be true. At say, Kentucky, the football team could make a BCS bowl game and the basketball team could stumble to a .500. Basketball will always be king.

To take a Big 12 example, in 2007, Kansas’ football team went 12-1 including an Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech. Three months later, the basketball team defeated Memphis for the NCAA title. However, when I think of the Jayhawks, I think basketball. Why? Because they are consistently good. Whereas football, while it has had a few spikes of success, never has enjoyed sustained success. What I mean by sustained is say 10-year period.

It’s definitely rare to be powerful at both sports. Oklahoma, Texas, Florida and Ohio State have bucked the trend in recent years and have been strong at both sports but they are the exception rather than the rule.

Back to this whole argument of “rooting for your conference so it looks good.” Yes, a strong showing by your conference in bowl games and the NCAA tournament adds credibility for the conference. However, my argument is that if I wouldn’t root for say Oklahoma at any point in the regular season why should I change now? Plus, shouldn’t I be more worried about how my own team does?

Speaking as a Husker fan, in basketball, I root for the Big 12 without reservation. In football, I tend to go back and forth with that belief.

Why?

We haven’t made the NCAA tournament since 1997-1998 and have had four losing seasons since that year. I feel confident about the direction head coach Doc Sadler is taking the team but let’s face it, because basketball is not woven into the culture like football, it’ll take Doc longer than it will football head coach Bo Pelini to get the Huskers among the elite.

That said, I root for the Big 12 across the board because it’s not as if we are a threat to the Big 12 powers and I look at it as “well, if we’re not going to have NCAA tournament success then why not see someone else do it?”

In football, despite our 5-7 to 9-4 turnaround in 2008 under Pelini in his first season, we are obviously not where we are accustomed to being but I don’t think it’s going to be long.

Since other teams are a threat to us, my dislike for say Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Missouri and Kansas State runs deeper. Well, I can respect OU and Texas because while their programs and fan base have a cocky mentality at least they have produced National titles. Colorado, Missouri and Kansas State have not produced didley. Sorry, Colorado, your shared National title in 1990 will not get acknowledged since you needed five downs to beat a sorry ass Missouri team.

I will confess that one time in my life I did root for the Buffs was the 1995 Fiesta Bowl when a 10-1 Colorado team played a 6-4-1 Notre Dame team. Typical of Notre Dame getting bowl game preferential treatment. Damn elitists.

It might be blasphemy for a Husker fan to say this but I was glad to see Colorado kick Notre Dame’s ass 41-24. Another bit of irony with my dislike for the Buffs, one of my favorite Oakland Raiders from when I covered the team as a freelance writer from 1999-2005 was a Colorado Buffalo. He is Greg Biekert. I always admired the consistency in his performance and preparation.

This past bowl game season, I struggled with the idea of rooting for Missouri to beat Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl and Oklahoma to beat Florida in the BCS Bowl. On one hand, I want the Big 12 schools to win but my dislike for them runs so deep that it’s hard.