Handicapping the second half of the season

College football bye weeks are a good time for a few things as it pertains to fans: getting chores down around the house, watching other college football games or doing something with your family.


I definitely didn't get any chores done so mowing the lawn will have to wait. I watched a smattering of a few games but spent most of the day on an outing with my wife and kids. However, as I was taking a nap on the way home while my wife drove (I was in too altered of a state to drive), I was thinking about how Nebraska's season has transpired to this point and will potentiall take place the remainder of the 2011 season.

The Huskers, who are ranked No. 14 in the Associated Press poll, resume action Saturday at Minnesota. The fact that Nebraska s 5-1 is no surprise. Seriously? When you were sitting around the barbeque this summer that's probably what you would have projected the Huskers' record to be after six games. The process of getting to 5-1, however, has been the furthest from what most projected.

The Huskers entered the bye week with the confluence of extremes. First, there was the embarassing 48-17 loss at Wisconsin. One week later against a struggling Ohio State team, Nebraska rallied from a 27-6 mid third quarter deficit to beat the Buckeyes 34-27. Those struggles in that game, however, do not look so bad today as the Buckeyes (4-3 overall, 1-2 Big Ten) beat No. 16 Illinois 17-7 on the road Saturday. What is that game more reflective of? Is Illinois, who very few people took seriously before the season, just a figment of our imagination? Or is Ohio State simply a troubled program that is still dangerous on a given day? The wait and see approach will be the best answer.

This is probably the most confusing Nebraska team in recent history. The offense that everyone questioned before the season is now viewed by many as the team's strength. Sure the unit laid a giant at Wisconsin but in general first year coordinator Tim Beck has pushed all of the right buttons and the young Nebraska offensive line, which was viewed as a question mark before the season, has been a team strength. So far the play of quarterback Taylor Martinez warrants a solid B. I know, it kills the anti-Martinez crowd to hear this but I'll say it anyhow. I'm not saying I think Martinez is Joe Montana but I have a sadistic pleasure in tweaking the anti-Martinez crowd.

The defense was expected to be a strength but is now a liability. With the exception of linebacker LaVonte David, none of the starters have lived up to their preseason billing. In fact, if the offense was not playing at its current level, the Huskers could very easily be 2-4. Losing cornerback Prince Amukamara to graduation was a tough blow and defensive tackle Jared Crick (torn pectoral muscle) is out for the season. Granted, Crick's peformance had been a disappointment but he still provided a presence. The defense's biggest disappointment is tackling and third down conversions. In the latter category, the Huskers rank 94th nationally, Those two areas must get better or there will be a few more disappointming Saturdays (win or lose).

Looking ahead at the rest of the regular season: The Huskers begin the second half at Minnesota (1-5 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) Friday, home against No. 23 Michigan State (5-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Oct. 29; home against Northwestern (2-4 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) on Nov. 5, at Penn State (6-1 overall, 3-0 Big Ten) on Nov. 12, at No. 11 Michigan (6-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Nov. 19 and home against Iowa (4-2 overall, 1-1 Big Ten).

Just a gut feeling but I think Minnesota and Northwestern are definite wins while the games against Michigan State, Michgan, Iowa and Penn State will be the swing games.

Minnesota is in disarray. Yes, they battled hard at USC before losing 19-17 but it's not as if Carson Palmer, Matt Leinert or Reggie Bush suited up. The Gophers also have a bye but have been outscored by their last two foes (Michigan and Purdue) 103-17.

Northwestern, which has lost four straight since starting 2-0, isn't off the charts terrible as three of their losses are by ten points or less but 2-4 teams are usually 2-4 for a reason. They make enough mistakes to get beat.

As for the swing games, Iowa has easiest remaining schedule as two of the Hawkeyes' four toughest games will be in Iowa City -- Michigan on Nov. 5 and Michigan State on Nov. 12. However, for every big effort their offense has like Saturday in a 41-31 win over Northwestern they come up small like they did in a 13-3 loss at Penn State.

Michigan State is stout defensively. The Spartans entered Saturday's home game against Michigan leading the nation in total defense, allowing only 173.4 yards per game, and rank third in points allowed (10.2).

With Michigan, you have a quarterback in Denard Robinson who is Martinez's equal if not superior in generating big plays. Robinson was the 2010 Big Ten offensive player of the year, entered Saturday's game at Michigan State leading the Big Ten in rushing (120.0 yards per game) and total offense (308.3). The Wolverines were notorious for fast starts but fading finishes under former head coach Rich Rodriguez but under Brady Hoke, this group appears suited for the long haul.

Penn State's offense has been suspect but their defense has done a lot of heavy lifting. Gee whizz, Husker fans can relate to that from 2009.

When the Huskers went 5-7 in the 2007 Bill Callahan distaster, I preached very strongly that 8-4 is the worst Nebraska should ever be. Let's say Nebraska win the Minnesota and Northwestern game. If they do that, I think at worst the Huskers get at least one of the swing games if not two or three.

How much is too much to reward a coach?

Within a matter of two days, Nebraska football head coach Bo Pelini gets a $700,000 raise that puts him in the middle of the pack among Big 12 head coaches. One day later, Kentucky basketball inks John Calipari to an eight-year, $31.5-million dollar contract.There is one common denominator within these two jobs. Football at Nebraska is king. Basketball at Kentucky is king. The pressure that comes with both jobs can be enormous. You can say it’s blown out of proportion but the Nebraska football job was the wrong fit for Bill Callahan for a reason. The Kentucky basketball job was not a good fit for Billy Gillispie for a reason. Callahan led Nebraska to two bowl-less seasons in four years while Gillispie lasted just two years at Kentucky. In 2008-2009, the Wildcats missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1991. Nebraska not in a bowl game. Kentucky not in the NCAA tournament. That’s like Tiger Woods not making the cut.Coaches salaries at virtually every level of every major sport has increased drastically over the years but how much is too much?To the coach making the money, no amount is too much. It’s called capitalism. I don’t want hear any whining from you socialist liberals because I doubt you would be turning that money down.

However, I also think these schools shelling out oodles of coin set themselves up for a bad situation, such as buyouts. Let’s say the university dismisses a coach that it hired or if that coach decides to go elsewhere. The University then has to “but out” the remaining years on his contract. Look at Rich Rodriguez, who left West Virginia for Michigan with a $4 million dollar buyout for the remaining years on his contract. Rodriguez left West Virginia for what he thought were greener pastures at Michigan. As a result, West Virginia wanted $4 million dollars as compensation. Michigan wound up relinquishing $2.5 million with the rest to be provided by Rodriguez.
The truth of the matter is that not every job is created equal. It depends on the university and the perceived "tradition" that that school has in a given sport. Some schools are considered "basketball schools," while others are "football schools." It isn't often that a school excels in both sports.

In college football, the pressure of coaching at Nebraska is far different than say Iowa State. In college basketball, the pressure of coaching at say North Carolina is far different than coaching at say Washington. In Major League Baseball, the pressure of managing say the New York Yankees is far different than managing say the Houston Astros.

So, the higher the pressure the job comes with, the University needs to make it at least equitable for the coach. Equitable, however, should not mean over the top. Granted, Calipari is a proven winner but is he worth $4 million a year regardless of the market? Just a few days ago, I blogged in this very same place that the Huskers rewarded Pelini to the right extent. He turned around what was a rudderless ship of a program that finished 5-7 in 2007, losing six of their last seven games to a 9-4 campaign in 2008, winning six of their final seven. Pelini’s original contract called for him to earn $1.1 million dollars, which was No. 11 among Big 12 coaches. In a nutshell, Nebraska rewarded him but did not go over the top like Oklahoma State did with Mike Gundy, who is set to earn $2.2 million in 2009. Texas Tech’s Mike Leach is slated to earn $2.54 million in 2009.

Both coaches have done a fine job at their respective programs, making them relevant after being irrelevant for years. However, you get the feeling that OSU (9-4 in 2008) and Texas Tech (11-2 in 2008) will max out. Let’s face it; Okie State and Texas Tech get their share of kids that Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M did not want.

The one question these Universities need to ask themselves before opening their vaults to head coaches is, does the head coach’s salary prevent us from rewarding assistant coaches?

Fortunately for Husker fans, Pelini understands the value of taking care of his assistant coaches just like Osborne did. Granted, the Huskers might lose offensive coordinator Shawn Watson some day to become a head coach but if you reward your assistants well enough, more often than not, they might stick around longer.

And if a team wants to become a program, maintaining continuity is vitally important.