Steele predicts Huskers to go 8-0 in Big 10 and meet Purdue in title game

There are four kinds of Nebraska fans: 1) The Kool-Aid sippers, 2) The unless we have mid-1990s success, the season is a joke crowd, 3) The realists, and 4) The Debbie Downers.

Anyone who follows the preseason magazines knows that Phil Steele over the years has been the most accurate. As flawed as the Huskers have been, Steele predicts they will go undefeated in Big Ten competition and meet Purdue in the conference title game.  

The good news for Nebraska is that no other team in the conference has been setting the world ablaze. Purdue is flying under the radar right now and getting overlooked. They appear to have a really good team and a few folks in the media are starting to catch on to them.


http://www.philsteele.com/miscpages/...Standings.html

With Ohio State and Penn State both on NCAA probation, it was generally assumed that Wisconsin, which won the Big Ten conference last season, would have a clear path to the Leaders Division title. Though the Badgers are 2-1, it is a shaky 2-1 with close wins over Northern Iowa (26-21) and Utah State (16-14) to go along with a road loss at Oregon State (10-7). Purdue has been much more impressive in defeating Eastern Kentucky (48-6) and Eastern Michigan (54-16) to go along with a close loss to No. 22 Notre Dame (20-17). Keep in mind, Purdue hosts Wisconsin on Oct. 13.

Considering Ohio State and Penn state being on probation couple with Wisconsin looking vulnerable, 4-4 could win the Leaders.

As for Nebraska, the offense has looked much better, which bodes well because with the exception of Michigan State, none of the defenses look scary. On the offensive side, no one else other than Michigan or Ohio State is anything to write home about.

Before the season began, the Big Ten was viewed as a conference that did not have a dominant team like the SEC (Alabama or LSU), Big 12 (Oklahoma) or Pac 12 (USC or Oregon). Instead, the Big Ten was seen as a conference that had a bunch of good but not great clubs clustered together like Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska. Records aside, Wisconsin has performed significantly under what was expected. The rest have performed slightly under what was expected. Michigan’s 41-14 loss to Alabama may end up not being so bad, considering how the top-rated Crimson Tide is rolling. Everyone knew Michigan State’s offense would need to gain experience, and its defense is still very tough.

Nebraska was not expected to lose to UCLA (but that might be because UCLA is be better than expected) and its other opponents don’t give much to go on in evaluating Nebraska. Ohio State has won all three, but has struggled at times. Purdue has probably played better than expected.

The bottom line is I don’t think anything dramatic enough has happened yet to completely rewrite the pre-season expectations, especially to predict Nebraska, or any other team, to go undefeated in conference.

I think that 8-0 is possible, but that is more a function of the overall weakness of the conference this year. I think that the Huskers have a very good chance to take care of business at home this year, including against Michigan. Right now, Nebraska should be favored to beat Wisconsin. The Badgers have looked like a paper tiger so far and the Huskers are going to be fully motivated to pay them back for last year after losing 48-17 in Madison. Michigan is definitely a decent team, but the Alabama game shows that they still have vulnerabilities to exploit, particularly with a strong running game.

Before last weekend, I would have ranked Nebraska’s chances at OSU and MSU at south of 50% for both games. Having watched both games this weekend, I’d now say the Huskers have a 50/50 shot in both games. I will say that Notre Dame does look like a legitimate top ten team to me (much as it pains me to say it) so that MSU loss may look better as the season develops.

As winnable as every game appears to be, however, the Huskers tendency of inconsistent play makes them just as likely (if not more so) to go 8-4 as it is 11-1

Iowa the closest to Nebraska's new rival

Storied programs are known fo having rivals but considering this is Nebraska’s second year in the Big 10, the question of “who is Nebraska’s rival?” is not the easiest question to answer.

When I think of rivalry, I mostly think of a few things: a) There is definite polarization as in there’s no way in hell you could root for the other team, b) The game usually means something when the two teams play, c) Fans will watch the game even if they don’t care about either team and d) The game carries equal meaning for BOTH teams.

Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma and others fit that description. OK, sure, you can say Harvard-Yale but how many people are going to drop whatever they are doing to watch that game?

For years, Nebraska was rivals with Oklahoma. The interesting thing is that OU has generally considered Texas its biggest rival but Nebraska-Oklahoma was the traditional game that took place the day after Thanksgiving. Plus, both teams were good at the same time for many years, combining for 12 National Championships (OU has seven, NU has five) and dominated the Big Eight conference, which later expanded to the Big 12. However, the breakup of the Oklahoma-Nebraska rivalry created a much bigger stir with Nebraska fans than Oklahoma.

With that expansion, both teams played each other two years out of every four since Nebraska is in the Big 12 North and Oklahoma is in the Big 12 South. Since 1993, the two clubs have only shared three good seasons (2001, 2010 and to a lesser extent 2006). The two teams met in the Big 12 title game in 2006 and 2010. OU suffered some fallow years from 1994-1998 before Bob Stoops arrived to resurrect the program. Nebraska suffered mostly subpar years from 2002-2007 but while the Huskers have become good under head coach Bo Pelini they have not made the leap to great.

Colorado, Kansas State and Missouri had elements of the notion “rivalry” with Nebraska the last 15 or so years as the meetings have been testy at times. Bill McCartney was known for “red lettering” Nebraska on the schedule but a large segment of Husker fans even to this day did not consider it a rivalry. They won’t any time soon because Colorado is now a member of the Pac 12 and Missouri is in the SEC.

So now that Nebraska has vacated the Big 12, which team will become its biggest rival? Last season, you could have made an argument for Ohio State because of their recent conference dominance and the fact that Pelini played there in the 1980s. However, the two programs have very little history against each other, having played head-to-head just twice and those meetings came in 1955 and 1956. Though the two team staged an epic matchup last year in Lincoln with the Huskers coming back from a 27-6 deficit to win 34-27.

You could make an argument for Michigan because of the recent history involving Nebraska’s 2005 Alamo Bowl 32-28 win that represented the height of the Bill Callahan era and split 1997 national championship. The Wolverines were in a downslide in going 15-22 the last three years after the ill-fated move of firing head coach Lloyd Carr and replacing him with Rich Rodriguez. Brady Hoke was hired to replace the since fired Rodriguez and the Wolverines went 11-2 last season. However, Michigan and Ohio State have each other, in which case Nebraska won’t resonate as strong with either program.

Penn State has possibilities for the Huskers being rivals with because the two teams share some nonconference history. Remember 1982 in Happy Valley when Nebraska fought back from a 21-7 deficit and finally pulled into the lead on an 80 yard drive with 1:18 remaining? Yet, the Nittany Lions drove right back and handed the Cornhuskers their first and only loss of the season when Penn State completed a controversial pass deep into Nebraska’s end zone with just four seconds left on the clock. Penn State tight end Mike McCloskey, who was the receiver of the game winning catch, admitted he was out of bounds on the play and should have been ruled ineligible 16 years later. If the catch had been flagged properly, Nebraska’s position for National championship consideration would have been much stronger.

Then there was 1994 when both teams were unbeaten but Nebraska was voted National Champion in both the AP and coaches poll. Keep in mind, Penn State’s move to the Big 10 prevent both teams from playing each other because at the time the Big 10 and Pac 10 champion was automatically tied to the Rose Bowl. However, it should also be noted that Nebraska beat two top five teams (Colorado and Miami) while Penn State did not. The two teams also played a home-and-home series in 2002 and 2003.

However, Penn State has far bigger issues. Need we say more?

Wisconsin and Nebraska have the geographic proximity and similar color scheme (red) to be rivals. The Badgers were the most aggressive, at least publicly, as head coach Bret Bielema contacted the Big Ten office about scheduling an end-of-year series with Nebraska just hours after the Huskers were voted into the league. ESPN.com quoted Bielema as saying: “With Coach (Tom) Osborne’s and Coach (Barry) Alvarez’s history, maybe we can start a little trophy game. Call it the Alvaborn Cup or something like that. We don’t have a season-ending finale game, so maybe we can start a tradition here.”

Osborne and Alvarez are both former head coaches turned athletic directors at Nebraska and Wisconsin respectively. Alvarez also played linebacker for Nebraska in 1960s. Wisconsin could use a regular rival on the final Saturday of the season, now that the Minnesota game has been moved earlier as opposed to the day after Thanksgiving. Wisconsin, however, will always have Minnesota as its border rival but considering how bad Minnesota has been, Wisconsin would love a good rival to latch on to.

Speaking of which, Nebraska will play Iowa the day after Thanksgiving in what will be called the Heroes Game. The two teams have played each other 41 times, however, all but six (including last year’s 20-7 win by Nebraska) came in the pre-Bob Devaney era (1960).

The two states are neighboring and there is a genuine dislike between the two fans bases but this series, to me, is more of Iowa being the new Colorado in that the Hawkeye fans view as a rivalry more so than Nebraska.

Essentially, I view Iowa as the new Colorado. However, it will be different in this way, while CU would only occassionaly win the game and was thus not a real rival, Iowa’s rivalry will be tied to how close Nebraska is to them. Yes, Nebraska boarders Colorado but Boulder seemed light years away from Lincoln. Nebraska shares the Missouri River with Iowa and there are major metro areas on each side and more natural competition for fan support. So, Iowa seems much more natural then CU ever was as a rival.  

Lowered expectations are not necessarily a bad thing

Preseason expectations are always to be taken with a grain of salt but it’s amazing how preview magazines for any sport sway with the wind.

Rewind to last season, Nebraska was heading into the Big 10 coming off back-to-back Big 12 Conference Title Game losses. The Huskers lost 13-12 to Texas in the 2009 Big 12 Title Game and one year later coughed up a 17-0 lead only to lose 23-20 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title Game.

Granted, the Big 10 had the likes of Ohio State and Wisconsin for “quality at the top” but were also perceived as weaker than say the 2009 Texas team that went 13-1 with the only defeat coming in the BCS Title Game to Alabama. Also, the 2010 Oklahoma team went 12-2. With Ohio State going on probation from the NCAA, it was generally assumed that even though the quality in the middle of the Big 10 was better than the Big 12, the lack of quality at the top would make it easier for Nebraska to win the Big 10. Well, a strange thing happened; the first six quarters the Huskers played in the Big 10 were horrific. There was a 48-17 road loss at Wisconsin and one week later, Nebraska trailed 27-6 I the third quarter to Ohio state only to rally for a 34-27 win on the way to a 9-4 campaign.

The 2012 preseason magazines have Nebraska finishing first in the Big 10 Legends division on the high end to third on the low end with Michigan and Michigan State also being in the picture.

Although no one is picking the Huskers to win the National Championship, there are those that are predicting the Huskers to be in the thick of the Big Ten race. Kevin Steele has Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State as co-champs in the Legends; however, he picks the Huskers to come out on top based on tiebreakers. I’d like to know how he arrived at that conclusion in July. USA Today and Athlon have the Huskers as second in the Division with a 10-2 record. Athlon has Nebraska going to a BCS bowl (Fiesta). Lindy's predicts a third place finish in the Legends.

Husker fans like to preach expectations but maybe a perceived lack of national respect is what the team needs. Personally, I felt the expectations for last year were overblown and trumped up to a point where we had nowhere to go but down, this year the team should come out with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. Respect is the byproduct of execution.

Last season, Nebraska had high expectations to fill in their first season in their new conference. A little less pressure on the Cornhuskers might be just what they need to sneak into the Big Ten Championship game.

Nebraska’s offense should take a step forward in their second year under offensive coordinator Tim Beck. Finding more linemen will be the key for Nebraska's offense.

The defense had high expectations in 2012 with star players at each level (Jared Crick, Lavonte David and Alfonzo Dennard). The Blackshirts may not have the skilled players they had in 2011 on defense, but more depth will go a long way to providing success in 2012.

The difficult schedule will not be easy for Nebraska, but if they take one game at a time and don’t panic if they lose a game, they should be fine.

My early prediction for the Cornhuskers is 9-3. That could change once summer practice begins.

Swing games will be pivotal

Nebraska can definitely consider itself contenders for the 2012 Big 10 championship based on talent but it’ll be how the Huskers respond in crucial games that will ultimately determine their fate.

That was not always the case in 2011. Nebraska had an impressive 24-3 win over eventual Big 10 Legends Division champ Michigan. The Huskers also showed enormous resolve winning 17-14 at Penn State in the wake of a scandal ridden week in Happy Valley. Nebraska also had a solid effort in a regular-season closing 20-7 win over Iowa. Yet for those three good wins there were ugly losses to Wisconsin (48-17) and Michigan (45-17). Then the Huskers followed up the aforementioned win over Michigan State with a disturbing 28-25 loss at home to Northwestern and lest we forget the season-ending 30-13 Capital One Bowl loss to South Carolina.

In the Bo Pelini era, the Huskers went from bad to good very quickly. Unfortunately, the elevator on the way to great has stopped at good. For Nebraska to take that step in becoming a great team, how it performs in the “swing games” will determinate that fate:

Vs. Wisconsin, Sept. 29

The Huskers’ Big 10 debut was a disaster in Madison last season but the good news for Nebraska is that it will gets its conference opener against the Badgers in Lincoln.

Luckily for Nebraska, quarterback Russell Wilson is gone but the Badgers still have running back Montee Ball, who hammered Nebraska for 151 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s meeting. Ball will be a Heisman Trophy candidate this season.

At Ohio State, Oct. 6

The Buckeyes will not be eligible for the Big 10 title game or a bowl game due to NCAA sanctions from the Jim Tressel era. However, this will be a tough road game for Nebraska and how the Huskers fare is likely to weigh heavy for AP voters.

Ohio State limped to a 6-7 season a year ago but the Huskers needed to rally from a 27-6 definit midway through the third quarter to rally for a 34-27 win.

The Buckeyes figure to be a much improved team under new head coach Urban Meyer.



following week, the Cornhuskers will have to face off against Coach Urban Meyer and his Ohio State Buckeyes on their turf.

Vs. Michigan, Oct. 27

This game is somewhat similar to the aforementioned game against Wisconsin in that last season Michigan hammered the Huskers in Ann Arbor but the good news is that the Wolverines come to Lincoln in 2012.

Michigan will likely enter the season as a Top 10 team in the preseason polls that may tab the favorite to win the Big 10 crown.

The bad news is that quarterback Denard Robinson, who accounted for four touchdowns in last year’s game, is still on the roster.

Win or lose, this could be a defining game for Nebraska.

At Michigan State, Nov. 3

Though the Huskers dominated last year’s meeting, they will head to East Lansing to face what figures to be a solid Michigan State club.

2012 Game-by-game forecast

Phil Steele’s college football magazine comes out in the next ten days. Who knows where you might find an early copy — but he’s got Nebraska at No. 17 in his preseason poll. He also has Iowa (No. 38); Michigan (No. 22) and Michigan State (No. 19) are ranked behind NU so it stands to reason that Steele sees the Huskers as a slight Legends Division favorite.

There’s no reason Nebraska shouldn’t be better in all phases of the game in 2012 compared last year. Michigan probably will be the same as last year, which was good, but they lose Mike Martin on the defensive line which will be a huge loss for them. The game against Michigan will be played in Lincoln this year and I expect that to make some difference. Michigan State has a new quarterback and is replacing a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Like last year, the Legends Division figures to be a tight race.

Taking a very early look at the 2012 schedule here's how I foresee it going. Please note that I have done zero research and I'm just going off of what I remember from last season and projecting towards 2012.

Southern Miss...Win--95% probability. The Golden Eagles looked very impressive in their 24-17 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl but the Eagles lost their head coach to another team, their starting quarterback to graduation, along with a host of other players who had started for several seasons. In short, Southern Miss will essentially be starting over from scratch.

@ UCLA...Win--90% probability. New coach, new system and more than likely it will be a pro-style. Which plays right into the kind of defense Nebraska likes to play, meaning rush the front four, drop seven into coverage and play a match-up zone. The questions I have are, how will Devin Fuller be used, will he redshirt, or will new head coach Jim Mora roll the dice and play a true freshman? If I were Mora, I'd design an offense around what Fuller can do and take the lumps with a true freshman starting at quarterback.

Arkansas St...W--99.999999999999% probability. The only way the Red Wolves win, or even have a shot, is if Nebraska has another -8 turnover day like they did against Iowa State in 2009.

Idaho St...W--99.999999999999% probability. See Ark St.

Wisconsin...W--50% probability. There are two upsides: 1) the game is in Lincoln and 2) no more Russell Wilson. Even still this will be a tough physical game for the Huskers. One thing is certain though Nebraska’s defensive line and indeed whole defense will have to step up big time in the tough and physical department.

@ Ohio St. L--60% probability. On the road, versus a shifty, agile, mobile, quarterback and a defense that well, quite frankly, gets embarrassed too frequently by mobile QBs. If Nebraska can contain Braxton Miller and avoid turnovers they can pull it out, but it will be an intense uphill climb.

@ Northwestern...W--50% probability. The biggest question I have is will Nebraska actually take the Wildcats seriously this time around? They’d be crazy not to after the wildcats came into Lincoln last year and pulled off a 28-25 upset. While Northwestern loses a lot of people their biggest difference maker, Cain Kolter, returns.

Michigan...L--75% probability. Unless Bo Pelini changes or tweaks his defensive philosophy, this is another probable loss. I hate to harp on it but look at the way Michigan State played Michigan and then contrast it with the way the Huskers played the Wolverines. The Spartans blitzed and pressured Denard Robinson and the Huskers played a soft coverage. Well the results of those two games are a stark reminder of why I do not really like Nebraska's chances here.

@ Michigan St...W--75% probability. Kirk Cousins, their two top wide receivers, and one running back are gone so there will be some retooling. This is another on the road dangerous game that if Nebraska doesn't take seriously they could lose.

Penn St...W--85% probability. This is a program in shambles. The new head coach for the Lions has his work cut out for him to say the least. This could be an ugly year for them.

Minnesota...W--96% probability. The Gophers just don't have the personnel to compete.

@ Iowa...W--65% probability. Nebraska typically doesn't struggle against Iowa the way other Big 10 teams do, although now that we're in the Big 10 there will be much more familiarity as we'll play every season. But for now, the Huskers have the edge.

Best case scenario: Undefeated season with a conference and national title as well.

Okay, now that the laughter has subsided, I think the best case scenario for 2012 is a 10-2 regular season. I see Nebraska more than likely losing to Michigan and Ohio State. I think that Nebraska loses due to how Pelini plays his defensive scheme not because I think the Huskers aren't talented enough to compete or win.

Worst case, and this could get real ugly real fast, Nebraska loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and tanks to 6-6.

I'll sort of split the difference and say 9-3 in the regular season with losses to MU, OSU and some unranked team at home.

Looking ahead to 2012

Perhaps the most comical thing to listen to from a football fan (high school, college or NFL) in February besides NFL draft hype or college recruiting rankings is gauging strength of schedule for the upcoming season.


Nebraska football fans are no different. Whether it is looking at message boards, Facebook and Twitter or listening to talk radio, expectations for the 2012 season range from the cynical group (6-6 and barely bowl eligible) to realistic (say 9-3 and another early New Years’ Day bowl game in Florida) to Kool Aid sipping (say anything less than 11-1 is a pathetic failure).

The Huskers’ first game is not until Sept. 1 when Southern Mississippi comes to Lincoln. I know. You want answers. We live in an instant gratification world. Instead, the thumbnail sketch of each opponent will have to whet your palate for now:

September 1, vs. Southern Mississippi: The last time these two teams met in 2004, Nebraska committed an unsightly six turnovers in a 21-17 loss in Game Two of the Bill Callahan era. The Huskers actually outgained the Golden Eagles 2-to-1 in total yards but six turnovers will hurt anyone’s chances of winning. This game is the most stringent season opener since Oklahoma State in 2003. Southern Miss was solid defensively a year ago but loses three starters and has a new coaching staff.

September 8, at UCLA: For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers are facing a team breaking in a new coaching staff. The Bruins underachieved last season on the way to a 6-8 season that ultimately cost head coach Rick Neuheisul (everyone’s favorite in Nebraska) his job, since replaced by Jim Mora Jr. The Bruins are a talented but enigmatic bunch which means they could be 7-5 or 10-2 but the former is more likely in a conference that already has powerhouses like Stanford, Oregon and USC. With 16 returning starters, you have to like Nebraska’s chances. The question is, will Nebraska be making a trip to the Rose Bowl in January? Possible but not probable.

September 15, vs. Arkansas State: The cynics are going to take their Sun Belt jabs, however, Arkansas State is not a bottom of the barrel Sun Belt team either. The Red Wolves were a bowl team last year. Granted, being a bowl team nowadays is ridiculously easy but you get the idea. The Red Wolves hired head coach Gus Malzahn, who is known as a bright offensive mind, along with Michael Dyer at running back. Dyer transferred from Auburn, where he rushed for over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons. The truth of the matter, however, is that the Red Wolves are still a Sun Belt that is not going to beat an upper-third Big Ten team in their building.

9/22, TBA: However, it is likely going to be a body bag game.

9/29: vs. Wisconsin: The Badgers lose Russell Wilson and Nick Toon, which will slow their offense but Wisconsin has enough of a culture in place to where it tends to restock its cupboard quickly. Both teams have excellent running backs in Rex Burkhead (Nebraska) and Monte Ball (Wisconsin). This game will come down to Husker quarterback Taylor Martinez not making negative plays like last year’s 48-17 loss in Madison. Complain about play-calling all you want but made decisions that night that were bad for high school JV quarterbacks.

10/6: at Ohio State: If there is one thing that new Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer has proven is that he knows how to coach quarterbacks. In which case, look for Braxton Miller to blossom under Meyer’s tutelage. The Huskers will have their share of turnover on defense but the Blackshirts need to have gelled by this game if not sooner especially since this game is in Columbus. Otherwise, the Huskers could be looking at a long day.

10/20, at Northwestern: Coming off a bye week, Bo Pelini and Company should be eager to avenge last year’s 28-25 head-scratcher of a loss in Lincoln. Quarterback Dan Persa is gone but Nebraska had a hard time containing backup Kain Colter, who rushed for 57 yards. Colter is no Dennard Robinson but not easy to contain nonetheless.

10/27, vs. Michigan: This figures to be a crucial game in the Legends Division race as Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska play each other over a three-week stretch. Robinson leads an explosive offense and the Blackshirts have to slow them down to have a chance. The Wolverines won’t win 45-17 in Lincoln like they did in Ann Arbor a year ago when the two teams met but with eight returning starters on defense, Michigan will be a handful.

11/3, at Michigan State: The Spartans return key defenders but the question is, who evolves quicker? The Spartan defense or the Husker offense? Last season, the Husker defense dominated Michigan State which had an offense of Kirk Cousins and a receiving corps that included B.J. Cunningham.

11/10, vs. Penn State: Besides the off-the-field issues, Penn State is breaking in an entirely new coaching staff led by Bill O’Brien. Penn State was a very talented team on the defensive side of the ball, but only returns five starters. The Lions also have only five starters coming back on offense but when you rank 110th in scoring, is that a bad thing? Penn State should be better but breaking in a new coaching staff takes time.

11/17, vs. Minnesota: Jerry Kill might just be the guy that leads Minnesota back to respectability. The Gophers should have a more potent offense but they have a lot of gaps to fill on defense. Nebraska should win this game going away. Key word “should.”

11/23: at Iowa: This game screams “advantage Nebraska” because Iowa lost both coordinators and their defensive line coach (Rick Kaczenski) jumped ship to Nebraska. Though it could be said about any game, the Husker offense needs to be clicking because playing in Iowa City is no walk in the park. The Hawkeyes were 7-6 last season but play solid defense and are balanced enough on offense to give teams a headache.
I'm not suggesting that the optimism of this blog entry is anything but drug-induced, but the schedule does align better for Nebraska in 2012. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, and UCLA will have almost entirely new staffs. Iowa has a bunch of turnover in that department as well. There is no question that those programs (all Nebraska opponents) will struggle a little next year the same way the Husker staff struggled to game plan for twelve new opponents, not to mention that they don’t have a good sense of their own personnel. That scenario leads me to this: Nebraska does not have to game plan for 12 new opponents and has a better understanding of its personnel. This is worth at least two wins this year.
The non-conference slate is interesting because of the staff turnover, but Nebraska should beat Arkansas State and Southern Miss on talent and scheme alone and pull out a win over UCLA while Mora is getting his ducks in a row. The game at Ohio State and at home against Michigan will define the Huskers season.

Best case: 11-1, trip to the Big Ten Championship

Worst case: 8-4, playing in a mid-level bowl like the Gator or Insight
Realistic: 9-3, possibly winning the Legends depending on how the Wolverines and Spartans play. Not controlling our own destiny.

Perceived SEC dominance over Big Ten exaggerated

Just two days before Nebraska defeated Iowa 20-7 in the regular season finale on Black Friday, I addressed how the Huskers needed to finish the season strong.

Keep in mind, five days earlier the Huskers got their doors blown off in a 45-17 loss at Michigan to fall to 8-3. That loss eliminated any chance Nebraska had at winning the Big Ten Legends Division.

In the waning moments of that loss, ESPN commentator/turned Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer said something to the effect of “don’t underestimate Nebraska’s ability to finish strong and if they do that it will help recruiting.”

That statement I find somewhat debatable because by the time bowl games come around, a high school kid has generally decided where he’s going. Coaching staff changes might alter a kid’s decision (see Blaine Gabbert in 2007). Gabbert was heavily courted by former Nebraska head coach Bill Callahan’s staff. Gabbert verbally committed to Nebraska initially but after Callahan was fired, he went to Missouri instead. That decision set off a vitriol of responses from a segment of Husker fans. Some would argue that a youngster commits “to a program not a coach.” That statement might be true in theory but is also laughable because high school seniors are still at an impressionable age; they develop a rapport with the coaching staff that actively recruits them.

Lincoln Journal Star columnist Steve Sipple wrote a column on Saturday stating the importance of Nebraska beating South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl for a different reason: to help alter the perception that the Southeastern Conference is vastly superior to the Big Ten. I would agree with Sipple that it’s important to finish the season strong, just not necessarily for the reason he suggests.

The SEC is going to win its sixth straight BCS championship given the fact that the game pits LSU against Alabama. Therefore, Nebraska can beat South Carolina by 50 or more points but the influential national media types are still going to kiss the collective rear ends of the SEC.

However, the idea of SEC speed beats Big Ten brawn is overstated. It’s as if the SEC invented football and is the only place in the United States where fast athletes exist.

The SEC is 42-30 all-time in bowl matchups against the Big Ten, which is not the huge edge some would have you believe when you factor in 72 games. Nebraska is 12-5 all-time against the SEC in bowl games. However, those two numbers are irrelevant when trying to extrapolate the outcome of the Capital One Bowl.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the perception of the SEC being vastly superior to the Big Ten is because Ohio State got beat handily in consecutive title games, 41-14 to Florida in 2006 and 38-24 to LSU in 2007. Last season, the SEC went 3-0 against the Big Ten in bowl games (Alabama thumped Michigan State 49-7; Mississippi State hammered Michigan 52-14; Florida defeated Penn State 37-24). However, since the BCS era began, the SEC’s head-to-head advantage in bowl games is only a slight 18-16.

Even beyond the argument of Nebraska playing for a greater cause given that it just finished its first regular season in the Big Ten, finishing strong is very important. Remember the saying, “You’re only as good as your last game?” Think about it for just a moment, the Huskers went 10-4 in both 2009 and 2010 but the perception of those two seasons could not be more opposite.

In 2009, the Huskers were 4-3 at one point but won six of their last seven games including a season-ending 33-0 Holiday Bowl drubbing over Arizona. In 2010, the Huskers started the season 5-0 and were a Top Five team but went 5-4 the rest of the way including a season-ending run of three losses in the final four games. The last game was an uninspired 19-7 loss to Washington.

In 2005 and 2008, Nebraska was 5-4 at one point. In 2005, the Huskers closed the season with three straight wins including a 32-28 Alamo Bowl win over Michigan. That was what most people remember as the high point of the Bill Callahan era. In 2008, which was the first of the Bo Pelini era, Nebraska finished the season with four straight wins including a season-ending 26-21 Gator Bowl win over Clemson.

In 2000 and 2001, Nebraska finished 11-2 but the legacy of those two seasons could not be more opposite. In 2000, the Huskers finished the season with a 66-17 win over Northwestern. In 2001, Nebraska was 11-0 but finished the season with back-to-back embarrassing losses to Colorado (62-36) and Miami (37-14).

Point being, the last game is the one you often remember most. From 1987-1993, Nebraska never had a record that was worse than 9-3. However, every one of those seasons ended with a loss in its bowl game.

Considering that Nebraska entered its maiden voyage in the Big Ten Conference with visions of a conference title, the season will not be viewed as an overwhelming success even if the team wins its last two games and goes 10-3. There was no conference title. Heck, there wasn’t even a Legends Division title.

So for the Huskers, the outcome of the Capital One Bowl is an issue of “how do you want the season to be perceived?” Losing the bowl game and going 9-4 would classify as the minimum of what Nebraska should achieve. However, beating South Carolina and going 10-3, the season could at least be considered a borderline success.

College football is so much different from every other sport. I know the cynics would bemoan the fact that there is no playoff system. However, the benefit of having the current system is that a team can win its bowl game and whether its final record is 12-2 or 8-5 can still, on some level, feel good about its season.

In the NFL, however, it is not uncommon for a team to go 13-3 and lose in the first round of the playoffs. In which case, the season goes from being a success to a colossal failure.

Granted, the NFL is such where only one team is going to end its season victoriously and feel good (the Super Bowl champion) but while 13-3 is an impressive record, a team with that mark should at minimum reach the conference title game.

Point being, if the Huskers want the season to be viewed as even a borderline success, beating South Carolina is important regardless of whether the SEC gets its rear end kissed by the media.

9-3 is in the eye of the beholder

With Nebraska’s regular-season ending 20-7 win over Iowa having come and gone, Lincoln Journal Star columnist Steve Sipple posed the question of “how do you feel about the Huskers’ 9-3 season?”


It’s certainly not the end all, be all that comes from any fan over the age of 30 that truly remembers Nebraska winning national championships (five to be exact). Keep in mind, Nebraska won three in the 1990s and went 60-3 from 1993-1997. However, I have said for a long time that we, as Nebraska fans, had become so jaded because of the long run of success we had during the Bob Devaney/Tom Osborne eras that we had lost sight of the definition of success.

Winning a national championship is every team’s goal, but only one team gets to do it. Does that mean every other team failed? Certainly not. We’ve had more than our share of success and failures this season, but any time you win 75 percent of your games, especially in a meat-grinder of a conference such as the Big Ten, you’ve got to look at that as a success (at least on some level).

You have to remember what Nebraska had for a leader in the athletic director’s chair and where that leader took this program (namely Steve Pederson). We didn’t “gravitate toward mediocrity” under his leadership, we sprinted toward it.

Could the Huskers have done better in 2011? Certainly, short of going undefeated, teams can always do better. They crapped the bed against Northwestern and didn’t play well against Michigan or Wisconsin. In the grand scheme of things, though 9-3 is a pretty good season. Great season? No but it certainly beats the 7-5 saddle Iowa has to ride on.

Osborne made a living on nine win seasons in a conference where you had six blowout wins a year and one legit game against Oklahoma. Well, when the Sooners started to backslide that the legit games later became Kansas State and Colorado. In the Big Ten, there is quality at the top and lack of quality at the bottom but the quality in the middle is much better.

The nine win benchmark was what everybody pointed to when Frank Solich broke that streak with a 7-7 season in 2002. Now, we have Bo Pelini winning nine games for the fourth year in a row and people are mad. Those same people who point to the 1990s don’t remember the 1970s and 1980s. They only remember the 1970 and 1971 seasons ending with national crowns. They don’t remember that from 1972 to 1979, the seasons ranged between 9-3 and 10-2. Those same people also only remember the 1980s for the consecutive 12-1 seasons in 1982 and 1983. They don’t remember that the rest of that decade ranged between 9-3 and 10-2. They also don’t remember that it took nine years for Osborne to win a conference title; something Pelini has had Nebraska on the doorstep of doing twice in his four year span.

I recently went to an Oklahoma message board after they lost to Texas Tech and they were calling for Stoops head. One post read like this “If you want to win a conference championship every other year Stoops is your guy, but if you want to win a national title we need a new coach.” Really? It’s about the perspective of fans. We would be thrilled with a conference championship but I dare say if we won a couple of those our fans would then elevate their expectations to winning national titles and if we didn’t do that they would still want Pelini fired.

Look, there’s no way in hell I want to have Iowa’s standards. They’re happy with seven wins but do you hear Iowa fans calling for Kirk Ferentz’s head right now? Hell no because their standards are nowhere near ours (which is why they've never won a national title).

What people don’t seem to realize is that the days of Nebraska beating the living crap out of teams week in and week out are long since passed. College football has changed dramatically in the last 10 years. The playing field is a lot more level than it once was when an elite list of teams like Nebraska, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State and others were dominant year in and year out. Northwestern isn’t the weak sister they once were because they’re now capable of playing at a more competitive level than they used to. Conversely, look at Colorado, they had risen up to an elite level not that long ago, and now they’re the Pac 12 doormat. Osborne averaged ten wins a year in 25 years as head coach, and there were a ton of 9-3, 9-2-1 seasons in that legendary era.

I remember in the early 1990s about how Husker fans had to make a choice whether we could be happy with nine wins a season with Osborne or hire somebody who can get us to “the promised land.” Well, a few years later, he got the Huskers to the promised land three times in four years, and it wasn’t until we got an underhanded sleeze of an AD like Pederson that the program fell from the elite.

Nebraska is back where it once was with nine wins a year, and I think it can get back to the promised land with the current setup. I appreciate those years under Osborne today more than I did at the time they happened, and I think the frustration of losses like those the Huskers experienced this year are far outweighed by the overall success and direction the program is now headed but beating Iowa was helpful.

Perception is about how the Huskers finish the season

As I watched the closing moments of Nebraska’s 45-17 loss (or would train wreck be a better term if you are a Husker fan?) Saturday, I heard ESPN commentator Urban Meyer say something to the effect of “don’t underestimate Nebraska’s ability to finish strong and if they do that it will help recruiting.”


I disagree with the “help recruiting” part. Seriously, by the time bowl games come around, a high school kid has generally made up his mind on where he’s going so I find it hard to believe that the outcome of a bowl game is going to be the ultimate reason a kid will choose one school over another.

However, I completely agree that for Nebraska (or any team for that matter) to finish strong is very important. Remember the saying, “You’re only as good as your last game?” Think about it for just a moment, the Huskers went 10-4 in both 2009 and 2010 but the perception of those two seasons could not be more opposite.

In 2009, the Huskers were 4-3 at one point but won six of their last seven games including a season-ending 33-0 Holiday Bowl drubbing over Arizona. In 2010, the Huskers started the season 5-0 and were a Top Five team but went 5-4 the rest of the way including a season-ending run of three losses in the final four games. The last game was an uninspired 19-7 loss to Washington.

In 2005 and 2008, Nebraska was 5-4 at one point. In 2005, the Huskers closed the season with three straight wins including a 32-28 Alamo Bowl win over Michigan. That was what most people remember as the high point of the Bill Callahan era. In 2008, which was the first of the Bo Pelini era, Nebraska finished the season with four straight wins including a season-ending 26-21 Gator Bowl win over Clemson.

In 2000 and 2001, Nebraska finished 11-2 but the legacy of those two seasons could not be more opposite. In 2000, the Huskers finished the season with a 66-17 win over Northwestern. In 2001, Nebraska was 11-0 but finished the season with back-to-back embarrassing losses to Colorado (62-36) and Miami (37-14).

Point being, the last game is the one you often remember most. From 1987-1993, Nebraska never had a record that was worse than 9-3. However, every one of those seasons ended with a loss in its bowl game.

The Huskers enter their regular season finale at home against Iowa with an 8-3 record. Considering that Nebraska entered its maiden voyage in the Big Ten Conference with visions of a conference title, the season will not be viewed as an overwhelming success even if the team wins its last two games and goes 10-3. There will be no conference title. Heck, there won’t even be a Legends Division title.

So for the Huskers, the outcome of the last two games are an issue of “how do you want the season to be perceived?” Losing the last two and going 8-5 would be considered a colossal failure. Seriously, an 8-5 season might be fine for Purdue. Splitting the last two and going 9-4 would classify as nondescript. I see a 9-4 season as the minimum of what Nebraska should achieve. However, winning the last two and going 10-3, the season could at least be considered a borderline success. I think it’s safe to say that winning the last two and going 10-3 would be the best way to remember the season.

College football is so much different from every other sport. I know the cynics would bemoan the fact that there is no playoff system. However, the benefit of having the current system is that a team can win its last two games and whether its final record is 12-2 or 8-5 can still, on some level, feel good about its season.

In the NFL, however, it is not uncommon for a team to go 13-3 and lose in the first round of the playoffs. Last season, the Atlanta Falcons went a franchise-best 13-3 and garnered the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs only to get their doors blown off in a 48-21 Division Round loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Granted, the NFL is such where only one team is going to end its season victoriously and feel good (the Super Bowl champion) but while 13-3 is an impressive record, a team with that mark should at minimum reach the conference title game.

Point being, if the Huskers want the season to be viewed as even a borderline success, 2011 becomes a two-game season beginning Friday.

Husker inconsistency a maddening pattern

Though the Nebraska football team is coming off a disturbing 45-17 road loss Saturday to Michigan and will finish no better than 10-3 if it wins its final two games, head coach Bo Pelini somewhat disputed the possible perception that the program is stuck in neutral.


"I don't care about the perception," Pelini said. "This program's come a long way. ...I don't really care what's out there, to be honest with you. What I concern myself with is where this program was, where it is right now. I'm proud of where this program is right now."

Safety Austin Cassidy, who was in the program when Pelini arrived as head coach in December of 2007. Like Pelini, he agreed with the notion that the program has come a long way the past four years.

"I would say that culturally, it's a completely different culture," Cassidy said. "Like I said earlier, I think Coach Bo is all about winning, but more importantly helping us out and turning us into good people. And I would honestly say that he has done everything in his power to help us out. Sometimes it is tough love, sometimes he's going to get in your face and treat you like a man. And sometimes he's going to sit down with you and say, 'Hey, look man, I'm here if you need someone to talk to.' In my experiences, there's been a lot of change and it's been for the better."

Including his 2003 Alamo Bowl win as interim head coach, Pelini has led the Huskers to a 38-15 record. On the surface, that is a huge improvement over the Bill Callahan era, during which time Nebraska went 27-22 and had two bowl-less seasons from 2004-2007.

However, the notion that the program might be stuck in neutral is not entirely false. Pelini’s initial impact was great as the Huskers went from 5-7 in 2007 to 9-4 in 2008. Nebraska followed the next two seasons by going 10-4 in both 2009 and 2010. Nebraska is now 8-3 heading into Friday’s regular season finale at home against Iowa.

While wins and losses do not always tell the entire story, the disturbing trend is that the team looks so dialed in and focused one week but ordinary the next. I’m not in the “Fire Bo Pelini” or “Fire Time Beck” camp. For all of these people that want change, just realize one thing. Change only means “different” not better. Look at our last presidential election, what was the rhetoric? Change. For the record, I am a divorced registered Republican turned Conservative Independent but going from George Bush to Barack Obama has only meant that we still have the same crappy economy and unemployment rate among others.

Anyhow, enough of the political angle. OK, remember when so many Husker fans wanted Frank Solich fired? Well, you got your wish with the Callahan era. Boy, what a success that was. OK, this next one is for you Husker fans that want an “A list” coach: Remember a segment of Michigan fans wanted Lloyd Carr out because he kept losing to Ohio State? Well, guess what, they brought in a “name” coach. His name was Rich Rodriguez. Three years later, a 15-22 record with two bowl-less seasons. Even worse than the Callahan era.

That’s not to suggest that I’m 100 percent in agreement with everything Pelini has done. The program is definitely at another crossroads. True, the program is in way better shape that 2007 but at some point, it's got to move forward. We're in neutral. The opponents change, the conference changes, the players change but the results are the same. There an impressive win, followed by a crushing blowout. There's a home loss to a terrible opponent who has no business beating you. And once in awhile, you have a great win as a home underdog.
In the end, there's a 10-3 / 9-4 season, where the 9 or 10 perhaps weren't the 9 or 10 you should have won, and the 3 or 4 weren't necessarily the 3 or 4 you should have lost. One step forward, one step back, one step forward, one step back. That's what we are.

I know this has been said a million times, but everyone here really does need to chill out. This is a very young team that has less experience than a lot of the competition right now. I do believe that the Huskers have more potential than most of the competition too. Everyone knows our tackling (or love taps) are pathetic. Our receivers leave much to be desired, and Martinez is attracted to blue and yellow but these are all things that can be fixed.
I don't have a problem with a little constructive criticism, but "(player) sucks" isn't doing anything but showing everyone we have fair weather fans.
With all that said, the inconsistency is driving me insane. Young or not, beating Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State proves to me that we are an extremely talented team. I just wish the team would not be so maddeningly inconsistent.

Husker loss leaves questions, not answers

No way to pretty this one up, no matter how hard you try. No. 16 Nebraska had a chance to keep its BCS bowl game hopes alive with a win at No. 20 Michigan in a matchup of 8-2 teams Saturday.


Instead, the Huskers turned in a clunker and lost 45-17 to Michigan in Ann Arbor. When a team loses that badly, no one deserves a free pass. However, it was the Husker special teams that were their ultimate undoing. Nebraska trailed 17-10 at halftime and received the second half kickoff. Kenny Bell, however, fumbled and Michigan recovered at the Husker 33. That turnover was turned into a touchdown. One possession later, Nebraska punt Brett Maher drops the snap on an unforced error. Michigan blocked the punt and recovered a midfield. The Wolverines later converted a fake field goal into a first down and later a touchdown.

Nebraska had closed the gap to 31-17 early in the fourth quarter, got a three and out to force a punt. The Huskers then committed a roughing the punter infraction that Michigan turned into a touchdown.

If you eliminate those special teams gaffes, sure, the Huskers still lose 24-17 but they would have at minimum given themselves a chance to win.

However, special teams were not the only culprit.

Defensively, Nebraska gave up just 3.9 yards per carry but also allowed 414 yards of total offense and 8 of 18 third down conversions. The Wolverines also ran 79 plays to Nebraska’s 53.

On offense, Nebraska committed three turnovers and gained 254 yards of total offense but even that total is inflated because 54 came on one play, a 54-yard touchdown from Taylor Martinez to Brandon Kinnie.

Statistical battles aside, the loss was disturbing for other reasons. Yes, Michigan is a good ballclub but they are not great. Losing to the Wolverines is one thing. Looking like you don’t even belong on the same field is another, especially considering that Nebraska needed to win this game to keep alive to win the Legends Division.

Four years ago, Nebraska fans and media lauded the hiring of Bo Pelini as the choice to replace Bill Callahan. While Pelini is a significant upgrade over Callahan, it’s games like Saturday that leave more questions than answers. How can the team look so dialed in while beating Michigan State and Penn State but look so inexplicably ill-prepared against Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan. The blame for that lies squarely at the feet of Pelini and staff.

When units come out flat and unfocused like the Huskers’ special teams did today, one has to question the coaches’ abilities to get players in the right mindset to execute.

Pelini has stated many times after the Cornhuskers lost that the team did not execute. I think the coaching staff is not executing as well. This coaching staff has a hard time getting the team ready for big games. Last year in the revenge game against Texas, Nebraska came out flat. The team came out flat against Washington in the Holiday Bowl last year, and twice this year in games against Northwestern and Michigan. I blame that on the coaches.

Fasten your seatbelts for the last leg of the Legends Division race

As is said so often in horse racing, “And down the stretch they come!” Thanks to Nebraska’s 24-3 win at home over Michigan State; the Big Ten Legends Division race now becomes very compelling. The win bumped the Huskers to No. 9 in the AP poll. Nebraska, No. 15 MSU and No. 13 Michigan are all 3-1 against Big Ten foes. The only thing that prevented a four-way tie was Iowa’s surprising 22-21 loss to lowly Minnesota.


Had MSU beaten the Huskers, the Legends Division for all intents and purposes would have been decided, now it’s a jumpball. The obvious answer is that the games must be played on the field and you have to take “one game at a time.” Well, we’ll leave those answers to the players and coaches.

Nebraska has a tough road ahead but if it wins out will represent the Legends Division in the Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis. The Huskers host Northwestern (3-5), visit Penn State (7-1), visit Michigan (6-2) and host Iowa (5-3). That’s a 21-11 combined opponents’ record if you’re scoring at home, and if you are congratulations. The Huskers are going to need to go no worse than 3-1 to have a realistic chance to capture the Legends Division. That goal, however, is very much within reach as long as they don’t stub their toe against Northwestern or Iowa because those are the most winnable games and they are at home. With the way the Huskers rebounded defensively and are rounding into form offensively, I like their chances of winning three of their last four. Winning all four is possible but not probable.

MSU’s remaining slate involves hosting Minnesota (2-6), at Iowa (5-2), hosting Indiana (1-8) and at Northwestern (3-5). That’s a combined record of 11-21 if you’re scoring at home, and if you are congratulations. The Spartans have by far the easiest road but since they lost to Nebraska they would need to win out and get help. It would be shocking if they lost to Minnesota or Indiana at home. However, given Sparty’s tendency to struggle on the road, a loss at Iowa or even Northwestern is not a farfetched notion.

Michigan’s remaining schedule is at Illinois (6-3), at Iowa (5-2), host Nebraska (7-1), and host Ohio State (5-3). That’s a combined record of 23-9 if you’re scoring at home, and if you are congratulations. The Wolverines’ road is far from easy with every remaining team being against teams in contention. Michigan is definitely good enough to go 3-1 in that stretch but 2-2 is more likely.

Iowa’s remaining schedule is host Michigan (6-2); host Michigan State (7-1), at Purdue (4-4) and at Nebraska (7-1). That’s a combined record of 24-8, if you’re scoring at home and if you are congratulations. The loss to Minnesota means that the Hawkeyes are going to be hard-pressed to win the Legends. Couple that with the fact that Iowa is playing three Legends Division teams that are hungry for a title. Best case scenario, Iowa goes 2-2 with a chance to play spoiler in the season finale at Nebraska.

Second half look ahead

In two of Bo Pelini's first three seasons as Nebraska's football head coach, the Huskers had a penchant for being a strong second half team.


In 2008, the Huskers were 3-3 but finished the campaign winning six of their last seven games (including a 26-21 win over Clemson in the Gator Bowl) to conclue the season 9-4. In 2009, the Huskers were 4-3 but again finished the season with six wins in their last seven games (including a 33-0 Holiday Bowl win over Arizona) to finish 10-4. Last season, however, Nebraska was not a second half team. At least not in the final third. The Huskers were 9-1 at one point but lost three of their last four games (including a 19-7 loss to Washington in the Holiday Bowl) to finish 10-4.

As the Huskers begin the second half of 2011 with a 5-1 record entering Saturday's game at Minnesota, the question begs, which second half team will we see? 2008/2009 or 2010? Hopefully, the former. Since Pelini took over as the head coach, Nebraska is 15-3 in the second half of its regular season schedule but for that trend to continue the Huskers need to improve.

Despite the team's 5-1 record, many Nebraska fans have been disappointed in the team's play, so much so that they have referred to the team as overrated and has a bleak future. Overrated? Perhaps so. Bleak future? Get real.

True, Nebraska looked hoorible in a 48-17 loss to Wisconsin and in the first half of their 34-27 come-from-behind win over Ohio State but I believe Nebraska will have a good second half to the season. What it means as far as wins and losses? Who knows.

On the offensive side, the Huskers have had their moments of struggling but in general progressed ahead of schedule despite having a new coordinator (Tim Beck) and more collective yout than recent memory.

Through quarterback Taylor Martinez has the lightening speed, running back Rex Burkhead is the foundation of the offense. Burkhead could carry the offense if necessary but freshman Ameer Abdullah's speed is a nice compliment to Burkhead's steadiness. Since the days of 30-carry per game running backs are a thing of the past, having a good one-two punch becomes important.

Though Martinez will never be confused with Tom Brady as a passer, he is better than his critics are willing to acknowledge but for the Husker passing game to work, the ground game has to be on point.

While the Husker offense has improved, the defense has been the weak link and I bet you thought you would have never heard those words uttered about a Pelini coached team.

The Huskers will have to make due without defensive tackle Jared Crick, who was a preseason All-American. Crick will miss the rest of the season because of a torn pectoral muscle. His replacements (note the plural) will be Terrance Moore, Thad Randle and Chase Rome at defensive tackle in the second half of the season.

Despite losing Crick, I believe Nebraska will play much better defensively in the second half of the season. Pelini has been a great defensive mind his entire career and didn't suddenly become a dummy. Nebraska probably will not be the dominant unit it was in 2009 but I've got to think that a close evaluation by Pelini during the bye week will help this defense perform closer to the unit it was in 2009 and to a lesser extent 2010.

Cornerback/converted wide receiver Stanly Jean-Baptiste's interception led to the game-winning touchdown against Ohio State. The bye probably did him some good as well in terms of further adjusting to a new position.

Jean-Baptiste played in his first game as a cornerback against Ohio State. Jean-Baptiste played wide receiver for the first part of the 2011 season before switching to cornerback.

The Huskers, however, have a much tougher slate in the second half than they did in the first. Nebraska should win aturday's game at Minnesota going away. The Huskers then come home for Michigan State, who most people believe is the toughest remaining game for the Huskers. However, there are three things to keep in mind: a) The Spartans come to Lincoln, b) Michogan State will be coming to Lincoln after consecutive tough contests against Michigan and Wisconsin, c) Nebraska will have had a bye and a trip to Minnesota. Will those three factors translate into a Husker win? Who knows but they are no small advantages.

After Michigan State, Northwestern comes to town. Wildcats quarterback Dan Persa can be a headache for most any defense but given the fact that they rank 1-1st nationally in total defense, Northwestern will be hard-pressed to come into Lincoln and win.

Then, back-to-back road tests at Penn State and Michigan await. even though the former has looked suspect at times, they have a very stout defense. The latter meanwhile has a mobile quarterback in Denard Robinson, the type of quarterback Nebraska has had problems defending.

The Huskers then close the regular season at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have a terrible defense but a favorable remaining schedule of Indiana, at Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State, and at Purdue entering the Nebraska game should keep them in the mix for a Legends Division title.

Many Husker fans had visions of a trip to the Rose Bowl in the team's first Big Ten season. That goal is definitely within reach but the Huskers are also flawed enough to have one or two losses.

Handicapping the second half of the season

College football bye weeks are a good time for a few things as it pertains to fans: getting chores down around the house, watching other college football games or doing something with your family.


I definitely didn't get any chores done so mowing the lawn will have to wait. I watched a smattering of a few games but spent most of the day on an outing with my wife and kids. However, as I was taking a nap on the way home while my wife drove (I was in too altered of a state to drive), I was thinking about how Nebraska's season has transpired to this point and will potentiall take place the remainder of the 2011 season.

The Huskers, who are ranked No. 14 in the Associated Press poll, resume action Saturday at Minnesota. The fact that Nebraska s 5-1 is no surprise. Seriously? When you were sitting around the barbeque this summer that's probably what you would have projected the Huskers' record to be after six games. The process of getting to 5-1, however, has been the furthest from what most projected.

The Huskers entered the bye week with the confluence of extremes. First, there was the embarassing 48-17 loss at Wisconsin. One week later against a struggling Ohio State team, Nebraska rallied from a 27-6 mid third quarter deficit to beat the Buckeyes 34-27. Those struggles in that game, however, do not look so bad today as the Buckeyes (4-3 overall, 1-2 Big Ten) beat No. 16 Illinois 17-7 on the road Saturday. What is that game more reflective of? Is Illinois, who very few people took seriously before the season, just a figment of our imagination? Or is Ohio State simply a troubled program that is still dangerous on a given day? The wait and see approach will be the best answer.

This is probably the most confusing Nebraska team in recent history. The offense that everyone questioned before the season is now viewed by many as the team's strength. Sure the unit laid a giant at Wisconsin but in general first year coordinator Tim Beck has pushed all of the right buttons and the young Nebraska offensive line, which was viewed as a question mark before the season, has been a team strength. So far the play of quarterback Taylor Martinez warrants a solid B. I know, it kills the anti-Martinez crowd to hear this but I'll say it anyhow. I'm not saying I think Martinez is Joe Montana but I have a sadistic pleasure in tweaking the anti-Martinez crowd.

The defense was expected to be a strength but is now a liability. With the exception of linebacker LaVonte David, none of the starters have lived up to their preseason billing. In fact, if the offense was not playing at its current level, the Huskers could very easily be 2-4. Losing cornerback Prince Amukamara to graduation was a tough blow and defensive tackle Jared Crick (torn pectoral muscle) is out for the season. Granted, Crick's peformance had been a disappointment but he still provided a presence. The defense's biggest disappointment is tackling and third down conversions. In the latter category, the Huskers rank 94th nationally, Those two areas must get better or there will be a few more disappointming Saturdays (win or lose).

Looking ahead at the rest of the regular season: The Huskers begin the second half at Minnesota (1-5 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) Friday, home against No. 23 Michigan State (5-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Oct. 29; home against Northwestern (2-4 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) on Nov. 5, at Penn State (6-1 overall, 3-0 Big Ten) on Nov. 12, at No. 11 Michigan (6-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) on Nov. 19 and home against Iowa (4-2 overall, 1-1 Big Ten).

Just a gut feeling but I think Minnesota and Northwestern are definite wins while the games against Michigan State, Michgan, Iowa and Penn State will be the swing games.

Minnesota is in disarray. Yes, they battled hard at USC before losing 19-17 but it's not as if Carson Palmer, Matt Leinert or Reggie Bush suited up. The Gophers also have a bye but have been outscored by their last two foes (Michigan and Purdue) 103-17.

Northwestern, which has lost four straight since starting 2-0, isn't off the charts terrible as three of their losses are by ten points or less but 2-4 teams are usually 2-4 for a reason. They make enough mistakes to get beat.

As for the swing games, Iowa has easiest remaining schedule as two of the Hawkeyes' four toughest games will be in Iowa City -- Michigan on Nov. 5 and Michigan State on Nov. 12. However, for every big effort their offense has like Saturday in a 41-31 win over Northwestern they come up small like they did in a 13-3 loss at Penn State.

Michigan State is stout defensively. The Spartans entered Saturday's home game against Michigan leading the nation in total defense, allowing only 173.4 yards per game, and rank third in points allowed (10.2).

With Michigan, you have a quarterback in Denard Robinson who is Martinez's equal if not superior in generating big plays. Robinson was the 2010 Big Ten offensive player of the year, entered Saturday's game at Michigan State leading the Big Ten in rushing (120.0 yards per game) and total offense (308.3). The Wolverines were notorious for fast starts but fading finishes under former head coach Rich Rodriguez but under Brady Hoke, this group appears suited for the long haul.

Penn State's offense has been suspect but their defense has done a lot of heavy lifting. Gee whizz, Husker fans can relate to that from 2009.

When the Huskers went 5-7 in the 2007 Bill Callahan distaster, I preached very strongly that 8-4 is the worst Nebraska should ever be. Let's say Nebraska win the Minnesota and Northwestern game. If they do that, I think at worst the Huskers get at least one of the swing games if not two or three.

Huskers improving unlike most of its Big Ten foes

As much as we love to bristle at the coach-speak "one game at a time" idea, any sports season truly is about winning one game at a time. However, just for a day, I will stray from that idealogy as it pertains to the No. 9 ranked Nebraska football team as it heads on the road to take on Wyoming.


The Huskers are 3-0 after Saturday's 51-38 win over Washington, not a particularly overwhelming 3-0 record but it's 3-0 nonetheless. The Cowboys represent Nebraska's final nonleague tuneup before turning its attention to Big 10 opponents.

Throughout the offseason, most people tabbed Nebraska as the favorite to win the Legends division that also includes Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota. The Leaders division contains Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue and Indiana. Wisconsin, which is currently the No. 6 ranked team in the nation, is considered the favorite out of that division.

The dynmanic about two division conferences is such that you have 12 teams, 12 regular season games and eight conference games. Teams play division opponents once every year while out of division opponents are rotated every two years. For example, Nebraska will play Wisconsin and Ohio State from the Leaders Division the next two years. The Huskers will play Penn State every year as the natural crossover game but in 2013 and 2014 Illinois and Purdue replace Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Since Nebraska did not draw what most people predicted as the lower third of the Leaders Division (Indiana, Purdue and Illinois), the perception was "Gee whizz, the Big Ten did Nebraska no favors in its first season." While rankings are often subjective, the feeling among many media members (specifically mainstream media members that cover the Huskers on a daily basis) is that Nebraska's No. 9 ranking is too high. However, as inconsistent as the Huskers have been to date, the only one of their remaining opponents that is playing at a higher level than Nebraska at the present time is Wisconsin, whom the Huskers visit on Oct. 1. While the Badgers would likely be favored against the Huskers, that game is far from out of reach.

Could other opponents not named Wisconsin be potholes on the Husker slate? Certainly. Michigan, whom the Huskers travel to face on Nov. 19, could definitely pose a threat in large part because of quarterback Dennard Robinson.

Michigan State was supposed to be Nebraska's biggest threat in the Legends division but the Spartans looked God-awful in a 31-13 loss to Notre Dame Saturday. Iowa rallied to beat Pittsburgh 31-27 but still looks suspect. Northwestern lost to a winless army squad. Minnesota is rebuilding -- as usual. Ohio State and Penn State are struggling against any competant competition.

Point being, Nebraska may have its flaws but compared to the rest of the teams on their slate (Wisconsin and Michigan notwithstanding) the Huskers are at least improving.

Season-ending humble pie should prevent letdown

On paper, there is no reason to believe that Saturday's game involving No. 10 Nebraska taking on Tennessee-Chattanooga should be close. The Huskers open as a 34.5 point favorite.


Though manly fans may bristle at "coach speak," especially involving one team being a heavy favorite to beat the other, momentum can often be fragile because if you let an underdog hang around long enough, the liklihood of an upset increases.

The last time Nebraska faced a Football Championship Subdivision team, they had to endure some teeth-nashing moments in a 17-3 win over South Dakota State.

"I would hope that we never take anybody lightly," coach Bo Pelini said in an Associated Press story Friday morning. "We just didn't play well against South Dakota State last year, especially on offense. I don't know if our guys took them lightly. I don't know about that game, but we will be prepared on Saturday."

Much like South Dakota State, Chattanooga is a middle-of-the road ballclub. The Mocs have gone 6-5 the past two years and are picked to finish fourth in the Southern Conference. Games like Saturday are often referred to as "bodybag games" because Chattanooga scheduled the game for the $475,000 paycheck, but no big underdog can resist imagining the unthinkable happening.

However, when a big name program hosts an FCS school, the game many people frequently refer to is the 2006 matchup when Appalachian State of the Southern Conference beat Michigan in one of the greatest upsets in college football history.

Most people fail to realize, however, that Appalachian State was one of, if not perhaps the best, FCS team in the country that year. The problem with using the past to predict the future is that the "one size fits all" approach is not how the world works. Every game is its own entity and has different circumstances surrounding it.

Entering last year's game aforementioned game in Lincoln, South Dakota State had entered the contest with losses to Delaware and Illinois State. Nebraska was ranked No. 6 in the country and coming off a 56-21 win at Washington. In hindsight (which is always 20-20), the Huskers perhaps had reason to enter the game feeling full of themselves.

Turned out, the Huskers were ripe for a letdown as they struggled to a 17-3 win. Keep in mind, SDSU had two touchdowns called by because of penalties.

The Jackrabbits appeared to score the game's first touchdown, but a video review showed the ball carrier didn't cross the goal line. Down 14 points in the fourth quarter, the Jacks ran back an interception 66 yards for an apparent touchdown, but a penalty nullified the play.

For this game, however, the Huskers have no reason at all to feel full of themselves despite their No. 10 ranking. You know the saying, "You're only as good as your last game." Well, the last time Nebraska took the field they only did so in body in their 19-7 Holiday Bowl loss to Washington. That defeat capped a 10-4 season in which the Huskers closed with three losses in four games.

Looking ahead? Could happen this week but it won't.