Much was made about the Nebraska football team’s motivation for last season’s Holiday Bowl. Well, lack thereof would be a better description.
There are many reasons why the Huskers showed a lack of pizzazz in their 19-7 Holiday Bowl loss to Washington: 1) Nebraska was returning to a bowl game it played in one year early in which it blew Arizona’s doors off in a 33-0 whitewash; 2) The Huskers were facing a Washington team that it throttled 56-21 three months earlier; 3) Nebraska had set preseason goals of winning the Big 12 conference, beating Texas and achieving a BCS bowl bid. The Huskers achieved none; and 3) Washington was playing in its first bowl game since 2002 and was getting a rematch against a Husker team that lambasted them three months earlier. In hindsight, all of those things were a recipe for the Huskers lacking motivation and Washington having motivation that was sky high.
So what will be the motivation for South Carolina and Nebraska when they meet in the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 2? South Carolina certainly won’t lack for motivation as the Gamecocks are 10-2 entering the game and have a chance to record 11 wins for the first time in school history. Considering that South Carolina plays in the shadow of traditional SEC powerhouses like Alabama and most recently LSU and Florida that opportunity is significant.
Nebraska enters the game with a 9-3 record and fell short of its goals of winning the Big Ten Legends Division as well as the Big Ten conference title. For the Huskers, however, this game represents the chance to beat an SEC team. Yes, by virtue of Alabama and LSU playing in the BCS Title Game, the SEC is guaranteed to win its sixth straight crown. While the ESPN talking heads are going to continue to kiss the SEC’s butt, a win over an SEC team certainly looks goods. Plus, after having the humble pie of last year’s Holiday Bowl loss, Nebraska is not likely to want a second straight bowl loss.
Breaking down matchups is not just about who has the position-by-position edge; it is often decided by motivation. Granted, showing up ready to play is something that should be done before every game, not just a bowl game. Some people point to South Carolina’s 10-2 record and their SEC membership as rock solid proof that they’ll beat Nebraska but a close look reveals more.
The Gamecocks had five games decided by less than a touchdown this year; Nebraska had two. And while a 45-42 win against a scrappy Georgia team looks impressive, some too-close wins over Florida and Vanderbilt do not. South Carolina also plays in the comparatively weaker SEC East, and their play against the more dominant SEC West was terrible. They also had a 44-28 loss to Arkansas. They escaped with a 16-13 win over a mediocre 7-5 Auburn teams, and had a 14-12 win over a 6-6 Mississippi State. Absent from the schedule were Alabama and LSU, which would have easily been two more losses.
Looking at the statistical angle, quarterback Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team and replaced by Connor Shaw, who has completed 65% of his throws and has thrown 12 TD passes. As a unit, South Carolina has rushed for almost 2400 yards (NU: 2700) and passed for another 2100 (NU: 2000).
However, the receiving game has not always clicked for the Gamecocks as they’ve had 15 interceptions stolen against Nebraska’s seven. All things being equal, both teams are putting up similar total numbers on offense. South Carolina is probably split 60/40 towards the pass, while Nebraska is about 60/40 run.
Defensively, the Gamecocks fair well against the pass, but their inability to stop the run has been well documented. If Nebraska can get 100 yards from Burkhead and another 100 from everyone else, the Huskers will be in a great position to close out the game.
Special teams might be the deciding factor in this one, which tips in Nebraska’s favor. If punter Brett Maher can keep the Gamecocks pinned deep, Nebraska will have a good chance at winning this game.
I don’t think this will be a high scoring affair; if I had to pick today, I’d say that the score would look something like 24-17.
Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Perceived SEC dominance over Big Ten exaggerated
Just two days before Nebraska defeated Iowa 20-7 in the regular season finale on Black Friday, I addressed how the Huskers needed to finish the season strong.
Keep in mind, five days earlier the Huskers got their doors blown off in a 45-17 loss at Michigan to fall to 8-3. That loss eliminated any chance Nebraska had at winning the Big Ten Legends Division.
In the waning moments of that loss, ESPN commentator/turned Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer said something to the effect of “don’t underestimate Nebraska’s ability to finish strong and if they do that it will help recruiting.”
That statement I find somewhat debatable because by the time bowl games come around, a high school kid has generally decided where he’s going. Coaching staff changes might alter a kid’s decision (see Blaine Gabbert in 2007). Gabbert was heavily courted by former Nebraska head coach Bill Callahan’s staff. Gabbert verbally committed to Nebraska initially but after Callahan was fired, he went to Missouri instead. That decision set off a vitriol of responses from a segment of Husker fans. Some would argue that a youngster commits “to a program not a coach.” That statement might be true in theory but is also laughable because high school seniors are still at an impressionable age; they develop a rapport with the coaching staff that actively recruits them.
Lincoln Journal Star columnist Steve Sipple wrote a column on Saturday stating the importance of Nebraska beating South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl for a different reason: to help alter the perception that the Southeastern Conference is vastly superior to the Big Ten. I would agree with Sipple that it’s important to finish the season strong, just not necessarily for the reason he suggests.
The SEC is going to win its sixth straight BCS championship given the fact that the game pits LSU against Alabama. Therefore, Nebraska can beat South Carolina by 50 or more points but the influential national media types are still going to kiss the collective rear ends of the SEC.
However, the idea of SEC speed beats Big Ten brawn is overstated. It’s as if the SEC invented football and is the only place in the United States where fast athletes exist.
The SEC is 42-30 all-time in bowl matchups against the Big Ten, which is not the huge edge some would have you believe when you factor in 72 games. Nebraska is 12-5 all-time against the SEC in bowl games. However, those two numbers are irrelevant when trying to extrapolate the outcome of the Capital One Bowl.
Perhaps the biggest reason for the perception of the SEC being vastly superior to the Big Ten is because Ohio State got beat handily in consecutive title games, 41-14 to Florida in 2006 and 38-24 to LSU in 2007. Last season, the SEC went 3-0 against the Big Ten in bowl games (Alabama thumped Michigan State 49-7; Mississippi State hammered Michigan 52-14; Florida defeated Penn State 37-24). However, since the BCS era began, the SEC’s head-to-head advantage in bowl games is only a slight 18-16.
Even beyond the argument of Nebraska playing for a greater cause given that it just finished its first regular season in the Big Ten, finishing strong is very important. Remember the saying, “You’re only as good as your last game?” Think about it for just a moment, the Huskers went 10-4 in both 2009 and 2010 but the perception of those two seasons could not be more opposite.
In 2009, the Huskers were 4-3 at one point but won six of their last seven games including a season-ending 33-0 Holiday Bowl drubbing over Arizona. In 2010, the Huskers started the season 5-0 and were a Top Five team but went 5-4 the rest of the way including a season-ending run of three losses in the final four games. The last game was an uninspired 19-7 loss to Washington.
In 2005 and 2008, Nebraska was 5-4 at one point. In 2005, the Huskers closed the season with three straight wins including a 32-28 Alamo Bowl win over Michigan. That was what most people remember as the high point of the Bill Callahan era. In 2008, which was the first of the Bo Pelini era, Nebraska finished the season with four straight wins including a season-ending 26-21 Gator Bowl win over Clemson.
In 2000 and 2001, Nebraska finished 11-2 but the legacy of those two seasons could not be more opposite. In 2000, the Huskers finished the season with a 66-17 win over Northwestern. In 2001, Nebraska was 11-0 but finished the season with back-to-back embarrassing losses to Colorado (62-36) and Miami (37-14).
Point being, the last game is the one you often remember most. From 1987-1993, Nebraska never had a record that was worse than 9-3. However, every one of those seasons ended with a loss in its bowl game.
Considering that Nebraska entered its maiden voyage in the Big Ten Conference with visions of a conference title, the season will not be viewed as an overwhelming success even if the team wins its last two games and goes 10-3. There was no conference title. Heck, there wasn’t even a Legends Division title.
So for the Huskers, the outcome of the Capital One Bowl is an issue of “how do you want the season to be perceived?” Losing the bowl game and going 9-4 would classify as the minimum of what Nebraska should achieve. However, beating South Carolina and going 10-3, the season could at least be considered a borderline success.
College football is so much different from every other sport. I know the cynics would bemoan the fact that there is no playoff system. However, the benefit of having the current system is that a team can win its bowl game and whether its final record is 12-2 or 8-5 can still, on some level, feel good about its season.
In the NFL, however, it is not uncommon for a team to go 13-3 and lose in the first round of the playoffs. In which case, the season goes from being a success to a colossal failure.
Granted, the NFL is such where only one team is going to end its season victoriously and feel good (the Super Bowl champion) but while 13-3 is an impressive record, a team with that mark should at minimum reach the conference title game.
Point being, if the Huskers want the season to be viewed as even a borderline success, beating South Carolina is important regardless of whether the SEC gets its rear end kissed by the media.
Keep in mind, five days earlier the Huskers got their doors blown off in a 45-17 loss at Michigan to fall to 8-3. That loss eliminated any chance Nebraska had at winning the Big Ten Legends Division.
In the waning moments of that loss, ESPN commentator/turned Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer said something to the effect of “don’t underestimate Nebraska’s ability to finish strong and if they do that it will help recruiting.”
That statement I find somewhat debatable because by the time bowl games come around, a high school kid has generally decided where he’s going. Coaching staff changes might alter a kid’s decision (see Blaine Gabbert in 2007). Gabbert was heavily courted by former Nebraska head coach Bill Callahan’s staff. Gabbert verbally committed to Nebraska initially but after Callahan was fired, he went to Missouri instead. That decision set off a vitriol of responses from a segment of Husker fans. Some would argue that a youngster commits “to a program not a coach.” That statement might be true in theory but is also laughable because high school seniors are still at an impressionable age; they develop a rapport with the coaching staff that actively recruits them.
Lincoln Journal Star columnist Steve Sipple wrote a column on Saturday stating the importance of Nebraska beating South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl for a different reason: to help alter the perception that the Southeastern Conference is vastly superior to the Big Ten. I would agree with Sipple that it’s important to finish the season strong, just not necessarily for the reason he suggests.
The SEC is going to win its sixth straight BCS championship given the fact that the game pits LSU against Alabama. Therefore, Nebraska can beat South Carolina by 50 or more points but the influential national media types are still going to kiss the collective rear ends of the SEC.
However, the idea of SEC speed beats Big Ten brawn is overstated. It’s as if the SEC invented football and is the only place in the United States where fast athletes exist.
The SEC is 42-30 all-time in bowl matchups against the Big Ten, which is not the huge edge some would have you believe when you factor in 72 games. Nebraska is 12-5 all-time against the SEC in bowl games. However, those two numbers are irrelevant when trying to extrapolate the outcome of the Capital One Bowl.
Perhaps the biggest reason for the perception of the SEC being vastly superior to the Big Ten is because Ohio State got beat handily in consecutive title games, 41-14 to Florida in 2006 and 38-24 to LSU in 2007. Last season, the SEC went 3-0 against the Big Ten in bowl games (Alabama thumped Michigan State 49-7; Mississippi State hammered Michigan 52-14; Florida defeated Penn State 37-24). However, since the BCS era began, the SEC’s head-to-head advantage in bowl games is only a slight 18-16.
Even beyond the argument of Nebraska playing for a greater cause given that it just finished its first regular season in the Big Ten, finishing strong is very important. Remember the saying, “You’re only as good as your last game?” Think about it for just a moment, the Huskers went 10-4 in both 2009 and 2010 but the perception of those two seasons could not be more opposite.
In 2009, the Huskers were 4-3 at one point but won six of their last seven games including a season-ending 33-0 Holiday Bowl drubbing over Arizona. In 2010, the Huskers started the season 5-0 and were a Top Five team but went 5-4 the rest of the way including a season-ending run of three losses in the final four games. The last game was an uninspired 19-7 loss to Washington.
In 2005 and 2008, Nebraska was 5-4 at one point. In 2005, the Huskers closed the season with three straight wins including a 32-28 Alamo Bowl win over Michigan. That was what most people remember as the high point of the Bill Callahan era. In 2008, which was the first of the Bo Pelini era, Nebraska finished the season with four straight wins including a season-ending 26-21 Gator Bowl win over Clemson.
In 2000 and 2001, Nebraska finished 11-2 but the legacy of those two seasons could not be more opposite. In 2000, the Huskers finished the season with a 66-17 win over Northwestern. In 2001, Nebraska was 11-0 but finished the season with back-to-back embarrassing losses to Colorado (62-36) and Miami (37-14).
Point being, the last game is the one you often remember most. From 1987-1993, Nebraska never had a record that was worse than 9-3. However, every one of those seasons ended with a loss in its bowl game.
Considering that Nebraska entered its maiden voyage in the Big Ten Conference with visions of a conference title, the season will not be viewed as an overwhelming success even if the team wins its last two games and goes 10-3. There was no conference title. Heck, there wasn’t even a Legends Division title.
So for the Huskers, the outcome of the Capital One Bowl is an issue of “how do you want the season to be perceived?” Losing the bowl game and going 9-4 would classify as the minimum of what Nebraska should achieve. However, beating South Carolina and going 10-3, the season could at least be considered a borderline success.
College football is so much different from every other sport. I know the cynics would bemoan the fact that there is no playoff system. However, the benefit of having the current system is that a team can win its bowl game and whether its final record is 12-2 or 8-5 can still, on some level, feel good about its season.
In the NFL, however, it is not uncommon for a team to go 13-3 and lose in the first round of the playoffs. In which case, the season goes from being a success to a colossal failure.
Granted, the NFL is such where only one team is going to end its season victoriously and feel good (the Super Bowl champion) but while 13-3 is an impressive record, a team with that mark should at minimum reach the conference title game.
Point being, if the Huskers want the season to be viewed as even a borderline success, beating South Carolina is important regardless of whether the SEC gets its rear end kissed by the media.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Best conference another debate to hit full force
There are sure things in life like death and taxes. In college football, there are sure debates such as “let’s have a playoff instead of the BCS.”
Another discussion that is certain to come up is “which conference is the best?” Most people seem to be saying Big 12 or SEC. Pac-10 folks will argue that they are the best based on their 5-0 bowl game record last season. The Big Ten has taken plenty of hits based on Ohio State’s consecutive National Championship Game blowout losses (41-14 to Florida and 38-24 to LSU).
The truth of the matter is that the best conference changes every year or every few years. It’s cyclical. Right now, the perception is that the SEC and Big 12 are the best from top to bottom.
Pac 10 folks will argue their 5-0 bowl game record of last year and that USC could beat the best of either conference. For starters, the 5-0 bowl game record is a great achievement after a subpar out of conference season. However, let’s also remember that Oregon defeated an Oklahoma State team in a game where starting quarterback Zac Robinson got injured and while Oregon and/or California is legitimately the second best Pac-10 team, Oklahoma State was the fourth best team in the Big 12 South (a six team division). Cal defeated Miami in the Emerald Bowl but let’s face it, these are your brothers Hurricanes.
Individually, there’s no doubt that USC can beat the best of any conference on a given day but are you going to sit here and tell me that Cal is better than Georgia or Alabama, no I’m not buying it. Are you going to tell me that Washington would beat Vanderbilt, the two worst in the Pac 10 and SEC respective? No, not buying it. Baylor, which was tied with Texas A&M at 4-8 for the second worst Big 12 record, defeated Washington State 10-7 on its home field. Washington State was the second worst in the Pac 10.
The Big 10 has been a punching bag in the national media based on Ohio State’s aforementioned failures. However, keep in mind, the Buckeyes lost 24-20 to Texas (a team some feel got snubbed out of the National Title game). Yes, Ohio State lost but it’s not like they got outclassed.
Besides Ohio State, the Big 10 has had its moments with Michigan and Penn State winning New Year's Day games over the SEC a few years ago and Iowa beating up South Carolina last year. Wisconsin has always played the SEC tough and Michigan State wasn't horrible in last year's Capital One Bowl loss to a superior Georgia team.
Another discussion that is certain to come up is “which conference is the best?” Most people seem to be saying Big 12 or SEC. Pac-10 folks will argue that they are the best based on their 5-0 bowl game record last season. The Big Ten has taken plenty of hits based on Ohio State’s consecutive National Championship Game blowout losses (41-14 to Florida and 38-24 to LSU).
The truth of the matter is that the best conference changes every year or every few years. It’s cyclical. Right now, the perception is that the SEC and Big 12 are the best from top to bottom.
Pac 10 folks will argue their 5-0 bowl game record of last year and that USC could beat the best of either conference. For starters, the 5-0 bowl game record is a great achievement after a subpar out of conference season. However, let’s also remember that Oregon defeated an Oklahoma State team in a game where starting quarterback Zac Robinson got injured and while Oregon and/or California is legitimately the second best Pac-10 team, Oklahoma State was the fourth best team in the Big 12 South (a six team division). Cal defeated Miami in the Emerald Bowl but let’s face it, these are your brothers Hurricanes.
Individually, there’s no doubt that USC can beat the best of any conference on a given day but are you going to sit here and tell me that Cal is better than Georgia or Alabama, no I’m not buying it. Are you going to tell me that Washington would beat Vanderbilt, the two worst in the Pac 10 and SEC respective? No, not buying it. Baylor, which was tied with Texas A&M at 4-8 for the second worst Big 12 record, defeated Washington State 10-7 on its home field. Washington State was the second worst in the Pac 10.
The Big 10 has been a punching bag in the national media based on Ohio State’s aforementioned failures. However, keep in mind, the Buckeyes lost 24-20 to Texas (a team some feel got snubbed out of the National Title game). Yes, Ohio State lost but it’s not like they got outclassed.
Besides Ohio State, the Big 10 has had its moments with Michigan and Penn State winning New Year's Day games over the SEC a few years ago and Iowa beating up South Carolina last year. Wisconsin has always played the SEC tough and Michigan State wasn't horrible in last year's Capital One Bowl loss to a superior Georgia team.
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