Sunday, May 17, 2009

Beware of the Kool-Aid -- college football rankings are flowing

The 2009 college football season might been a little less than four months away but preseason rankings have come out and the fun is only beginning. Or is it really fun to read about rankings during the offseason?

It is a time to drink the Kool-Aid. The question is does your Kool-Aid come in a glass or a bong?

Most years as a Nebraska fan, I personally could not give a damn but entering the 2009 season, I feel a little differently. It’s just nice to see our name on people’s list. Keep in mind, the Huskers went 44-32 from 2002-2007. That’s a 57.9 percent winning mark if you are scoring at home with two bowl-less seasons thrown into the. Pathetic when you consider it takes six wins out of 12 games to become bowl eligible. This was a program, mind you, that was accustomed to winning well over 75 percent of its games from 1960-2001.

Sportsillustrated.com ranks the Huskers at No. 24 in its preseason poll with Texas Tech at No. 23 and Notre Dame at No. 25.

Collegefootballnews.com ranks Nebraska at No. 17 with Georgia at No. 16 and Virginia Tech at No. 18. CBSsportsline.com has the Huskers at No. 21 with TCU at No. 20 and BYU at No. 22. ESPN.com rates the Huskers at No. 19 with California at No. 18 and Kansas at No. 20. Athlon Sports, meanwhile rates the Huskers at No. 16 with Florida State rated at No. 15 and LSU at No. 17.

What does all of this stuff mean? Well, nothing unless the Huskers prove they are worth their salt during the season after enjoying a bounce-back campaign in head coach Bo Pelini’s first season, going 9-4 but most importantly finishing the season winning six of their last seven including a 26-21 come-from-behind win over an underachieving but talented Clemson team.

Again, I put very little stock in preseason college football rankings because for one thing it’s conjecture and secondly, we do not truly know what will happen. If I knew what was going to happen, I’d be selling you gold and not being a drunken recreational blogger.

What I take out of the preseason rankings is not about whom I think Nebraska is better than or who is better than Nebraska. What I take out of it is that a) Pelini has made football at Nebraska matter again and b) other people are taking notice. The balance of power in the Big 12 resides in the South with Texas and Oklahoma being genuine threats to win the National Title. There are some things to like about this Husker team and other things that should concern you. For starters, both offensive and defensive line should be solid, the defense should continue to improve, which is a good thing since the Big 12 is the modern-day WAC and to a lesser degree Pac-10. The cause for concern, however, is breaking in a new starter at quarterback.

From a win-loss standpoint, this Husker team should at least match last years’ output and with a few breaks, surpass it. The biggest sign that the recent preseason ratings mean that football matters again in Lincoln, look at the teams that immediately flank the Huskers in various the polls. Here’s a closer look:

Sports Illustrated:

Texas Tech: The Huskers and Red Raiders meet in Lincoln on Oct. 17. Many NU fans have Texas Tech’s 70-10 route in 2004 fresh in their mind but it should be noted that Nebraska was a fumbled LeKevin Smith interception away from winning in 2005 and a desperately thrown Joe Ganz interception away from winning last year’s game in Lubbock.

Notre Dame: Enough already of the talk of how Notre Dame improved as last season progressed. The thrill of the blowout win over Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl temporarily glossed over the disappointing season that saw them lose four out of their last five regular season games. They lost at home to a 3-9 Syracuse team. Enough said. For all the talk of how great a mind head coach Charlie Weis is, great coaches don’t go a combined 10-15 in two seasons at Notre Dame.

Collegefootballnews.com

Georgia: I hesitate to say the Bulldogs had a disappointing season in 2008. After all, 10-3 in the SEC is pretty good but keep in mind Georgia entered ’08 with the hype of being a National Title contender. They also lost quarterback Matthew Stafford, who was the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft but they typically reload pretty well. That said, the SEC might be overhyped but it’s still pretty formidable.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies, who are rated No. 5 by Athlon, will represent a key litmus test for Nebraska when the two teams meet in Blacksburg on Sept. 19. VaTech edged the Huskers in Lincoln 35-30 in 2008. The Hokies always field a strong defense and special teams and get eight starters back offensively. If Nebraska wins this one, a 10-2 season seems like a slam-dunk. A loss won’t kill the Huskers but with one surpassing last year’s record becomes more of an uphill climb.

ESPN.com

California: Every season (oh, since say 2005) the Bears, followed closely by Oregon, are the trendy pick in the Pac-10 to dethrone USC. Then the Trojans still prevail and make a run at the National Title. As good as the Bears have become under Jeff Tedford, they have reached their ceiling and are nothing more than a bad girlfriend – a tease. While we’re at it, put Oregon in the same category. Despite this being a so-called rebuilding year, the Trojans should prevail in the Pac-10.

Kansas: Most people favor the Jayhawks to edge Nebraska and Missouri for the Big 12 North title because of the return of Todd Reesing at quarterback and Derek Meier and Desmond Briscoe at receiver. Nebraska and Missouri, meanwhile, have the quarterback and receiver corps depleted by graduation. The pundits forget one thing; the Jayhawks trio put up great numbers last year but loses three offensive linemen and three linebackers.

Athlon Sports:

Florida State: Like Nebraska, Florida State is like a fallen champion trying to recover. Christian Ponder gives them some stability at quarterback and the offensive line has grown up together but the Seminoles lost some key players on defense.

LSU: Just think, two years ago, Pelini was a defensive coordinator on a National championship team. This is a talented but yet mysterious club. Keep in kind, on the way to winning the National Title, the Tigers lost 51-59 in triple overtime to Arkansas but also needed a West Virginia loss to Pittsburgh to get back into the title game. LSU is a talented club but is also coming off a disappointing 8-5 season despite some of that disappointment being salvaged by a bowl game win over Georgia Tech. The Tigers are more talented the Huskers but Nebraska could have better team by season’s end.

CBSsportsline.com

TCU: Just four starters return on defense, but there were some decent backups ready to step in and the secondary should be among the best in the Mountain West. The offense might not be great but should be serviceable.

BYU:
The Cougars need to prove once again that they can be considered among the elite of the non-BCS conference teams. They were supposed to be Utah, but melted down against the top teams.

So they you have it, the rankings mean nothing more than Husker football at least matters again. Now it’s time to matter more.

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