When breaking down the 2009 Nebraska football schedule, marquee games such as the Sept. 19 game at Virginia Tech and the Nov. 7 home game against Oklahoma are the ones that stand out as well as the Nov. 14 road game at Kansas.
After all, VaTech is a Top 15, and in some cases Top Ten, team in most preseason polls. The Huskers have home against Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State to precede the road game to Virginia Tech. Nebraska should beat both Sun Belt teams but don’t expect either to be a “name the score” type of win. The game at VaTech will be a tell-tale sign of how far the Huskers have come (or still need to go) under second-year head coach Bo Pelini. The Hokies outlasted Nebraska 35-30 in Lincoln a year ago.
If Nebraska wins at Blacksburg this season, I think a 10-2 season very likely. A respectable loss (say 7-14 points), I think 9-3 becomes a realistic expectation. A blowout loss, which I don’t believe will happen, then I think matching last year’s 8-4 regular season becomes a battle.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, is one of about four or five teams that you can make a legitimate argument for winning the National Championship. Although you never know, the Huskers will most likely fall to the Sooners. I don’t think OU is 44 points better than Nebraska despite outgunning the Huskers 62-28 in last year’s meeting but the Sooners are superior nonetheless. I just think that superiority is closer to three touchdowns than six.
As for Kansas, most preseason prognosticators are listing the Jayhawks as the co-favorites with Nebraska to win the Big 12 North. Though Colorado or Missouri might have something to say about that.
Speaking of Missouri. The two games that are not drawing huge conversations among Husker fans are the Oct. 8 road game at Missouri, which is a Thursday night ESPN telecast, and the Oct. 17 home game against Texas Tech.
Since 2003, Nebraska has gone a combined 2-7 against Missouri and Texas Tech. That stretch has included defeats of embarrassing proportions such as a 70-10 loss to Texas Tech in 2004 in Lubbock, a 41-6 loss to Missouri in 2007 and 52-17 defeat to the Tigers in 2008.
It is generally assumed that the Huskers will continue their ascension in Pelini’s second year in 2009. Nebraska went 9-4 in Pelini’s first year and would appear to be a solid bet to at least match that record.
It is also generally assumed that Texas Tech, which enjoyed an 11-2 season in 2008, will falter after losing numerous players including quarterback Graham Harrell and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.
It is also generally assumed that Missouri, which went 10-4 in 2008 and 12-2 in 2007 en route to winning Big 12 North titles, will slip after losing quarterback Chase Daniel, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Kauffman.
All three things are likely to happen in 2009 but that said despite last year’s improvements, Nebraska is not good enough to be counting victories just yet. While every win is important, beating Texas Tech and Missouri would be psychological hurdles. Plus, despite those losses in personnel, Gary Pinkel (Missouri) and Mike Leach (Texas Tech) are two flawed but bright offensive minds as coaches.
With Texas Tech, most Husker fans still have the 2004 debacle fresh in their mind. However, Nebraska was a fumbled LeKevin Smith interception away from winning in a 34-31 loss in 2005 and a desperation Joe Ganz interception away from winning in a 37-31 overtime loss in 2008.
With Missouri, they creamed two teams coached by Bill Callahan and another (the 2008 team) still had many Callahan remnants. They also lost to a 2002 Nebraska team that went 7-7 and a 2004 Husker club that went 5-6, making former defensive coordinators Craig Bohl and Kevin Cosgrove look like Charlie McBride.
In that respect, the 2009 games against Missouri and Texas Tech are similar to say the home game last season against Kansas. The Jayhawks obliterated Nebraska 76-39 in 2007 on the way to a 12-1 season. The Huskers won last year’s game 45-35 but outplayed the Jayhawks to a larger extent than the final score suggests. One KU touchdown came with the game out of reach in the fourth quarter and another was set by a Nate Swift muffed punt near the Huskers 25 yard line.
After the game, Lincoln Journal Star columnist Steve Sipple, whose work I respect greatly, referred to the game as a landmark win. I disagreed with that notion at the time and still do now because in going 8-5 in 2008, the Jayhawks (who beat Nebraska 40-15 in 2005 in Lawrence, Kansas) did not approach their 2007 success.
I viewed the 2008 Nebraska win as psychological not only based on the aforementioned defeats but Nebraska’s ugly 14-8 win in 2004 and its 32-25 overtime win in 2006 in which the Huskers let a 24-7 lead evaporate before prevailing.
Every win is big for the Huskers getting back to prominence but wins over Texas Tech and Missouri would be of the psychological kind.
No comments:
Post a Comment