Monday, August 24, 2009

Watson's remaining window at NU likely a short one

“Stability” and “continuity” were two words commonly uttered throughout Tom Osborne’s 25-year head coaching tenure at Nebraska as well as the first four years of Frank Solich’s stint.

Then in 2002, the Huskers became just another program and that goes even beyond their subpar 44-32 (for Nebraska) record from 2002-2008. Solich uprooted most of the coaching staff after a disappointing 7-7 season in 2002, bringing in assistants such as Bo Pelini, Marvin Sanders, Tim Albin and Barney Cotton. Despite a 10-3 season, then athletic director Steve Pederson fired Solich, named Pelini interim head coach and later passed over both Pelini and Turner Gill for Bill Callahan. In Callahan’s four years, the staff also went through various changes as well as a 27-22 record.

Nebraska fired Callahan after a 5-7 season in 2007 and went 9-4 in 2008, Pelini’s first as head coach. Most importantly, every staff member returns for 2009. Stability and continuity might be overstated words but are very important nonetheless because a youngster can come into the program as a freshman, knowing that what he learns then will apply every single year. When a staff experiences an upheaval, it takes time for players to not only learn the new system but for players and coaches to build a rapport.

Most of these assistants give you the impression of being here for the long haul. However, the reality is that while we all long for the days of Charlie McBride, George Darlington and Milt Tenopir staying for 25-plus years, those days are likely gone but as long as the core of the staff stays together, the Huskers will continue to sow the seeds for long term success.

Now, to bring up a hypothetical, yet likely, scenario that I hope doesn't happen, but something that has to be considered. The Huskers probably will lose offensive coordinator Shawn Watson at some point. I believe Watson is as good as any OC out there but he also has aspirations to be a head coach. I get the impression that he is just looking for the right offer to come along. I don't think he will leave NU for another OC job, that would be a lateral step but a head coaching job? Well, it depends on the program that calls him.

As much as I hate to say it, I think that Watson will be gone in 1-3 years, regardless. Hopefully, closer to three than one. The only thing that would keep him around is to offer him the head coaching position at NU, and that is something we can't offer as long as Pelini builds on his success.
The question begs: does Pelini have a short list somewhere that he is saving and tweaking for that rainy day when he needs it? Will he try to hire someone of Watson's caliber away from another program? Or will Pelini try to find a young, diamond-in-the-rough somewhere who is just looking for the opportunity to make it in the big-time? This is a bigger risk, yet will be easier to pull off and has a greater chance of sticking around the program long-term.

Another factor is that it takes so long to recruit for an offensive system that we should do whatever we can to keep the same offensive philosophy. Well, as long as the Huskers keep producing 30-plus points per game and the defense becomes stouter under Pelini.

Another option would be to promote from within with Barney Cotton, Ted Gilmore, Ron Brown, and Tim Beck as the options. I don’t think Beck would be ready just yet. Gilmore will be a downgrade, and Brown - as much as I respect the guy - is a permanent assistant at this level. That leaves Barney Cotton who was Solich's OC for one year, and then Cotton served as OC for Iowa State for a couple years. I just do not put Cotton in the same league as guys like Watson. Cotton may be a great line coach, but I don’t see him as an offensive coordinator. My money is on Beck if Pelini stays in staff. He has a pretty good resume when you think about it.

Of course, I hope Watson never leaves but let’s not be delusional. Hopefully, Watson at least sticks around through next year as the entire line except for Jacob Hickman returns. With Zac Lee (quarterback), Roy Helu (running back) and Mike McNeill (Tight end) returning the offense could be dynamite. At wide receiver, Menelik Holt will be gone but I have a feeling that JUCO transfer Brandon Kinnie will press Holt for playing time this year.

If Watson leaves, it'll be for a major conference program, in my mind. Settling for less wouldn't be worth it for a guy his age (49). He's got a 15-year head coaching window, essentially. Spending a quarter of that at a MAC school that'll struggle in hard economic times is a waste.

I think he is looking for something at least as good as Missouri or Kansas (just examples, not that those schools are looking), and anything better would be just that much more of a pull. He wouldn't go somewhere like Iowa State. I think Watson using essentially the same approach as Pelini used while at LSU - looking for the right program, the right fit, the right head-coaching opportunity at a relatively big-time university. If and when he leaves, I hope that it is for a program outside the Big 12.The nice thing about the existing staff, except Watson, is that the assistants either don't want to be head coaches or they are so young and unproven that they aren't even close to sniffing a head-coaching position. I think they are talented, and because of my previous statement - will be around for a long time = coaching continuity.

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