Using the past to predict the future

If there is one thing that Nebraska football fans are guilty of -- it's using the past to predict the future.


OK, I get it, "If you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it." Just the other day, I reacted http://napavince.blogspot.com/2011/10/husker-season-at-crossroad.html to Dirk Chatelain's Omaha World Herald blog: http://sports.omaha.com/2011/10/05/dirks-brunch-bites-oct-5/ comparing the aftermath of the Huskers 49-31 home loss to USC in 2007 to the ramifications of the team's 48-17 road loss to Wisconsin Saturday. Chatelain essentially said how "this feels like 2007 all over again?" If you feel like reliving that nightmare, Nebraska was 4-1 that season and imploded by losing six of its last seven games to go 5-7, which ultimately cost head coach Bill Callahan his job.

Maybe the 2011 Huskers became the 2007 Huskers again but I seriously doubt it. Are the 2011 Huskers great? No. I'd say Top 15 material but closer to 15 than one.

The only true parallel I see is this, 2007 was Callahan's fourth season and 2011 is Bo Pelini's fourth campaign. Losses like 2007 to USC and Wisconsin in 2011 were supposed to be a thing of the past in their respective tenures.

Suffice it to say, the 2011 season is at a crossroad for the 4-1 and No. 14 rated Huskers. However, the opportunity to right the ship the next two weeks is a very realistic proposition. This week, you have a troubled 3-2 Ohio State team coming to town that lost 10-7 at home too Michigan State. Ohio State's defense has looked pretty stellar so far. Nebraska's one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the ball against the Buckeyes, but the good news is that Ohio State can barely do anything on offense to counter. The onus falls on the Husker offense and special teams not to give the Buckeyes a short field.

After the home game against Ohio State, Nebraska has a bye so if the Huskers can win this game and go to 5-1 at the midpoint of the season, that is not so bad.

Let's face it, when using the past to redict the future, you simply cannot factor in anything that took place before Bo Pelini was the head coach. Seriously? The only coacing link Nebraska has to the pre-Pelini years is running backs coach Ron Brown. Well, I guess you could say many of the cureent seniors were redshirt freshman during the 2007 implosion but even using that angle to predict the future is a reach.

Based on the Pelini years, the odds favor the Huskers to rebound. The true mark of good leadership is how a team bounces back one week after losing a game. You can't really count a season ending bowl game loss because a team changes a lot dues to graduation losses from one season to the next.

Under Pelini, the Huskers are 7-4 but two of those losses were by a touchdown or less. Nebraska's late season fade in 2010 is definitely a strike against Pelini. The Huskers were 9-1 only to close the year with three losses in their last four games but his 2008 and 2009 seasons are evidence that he knows how to circle the wagons. In 2008, the Huskers lost three straight (two by less than a TD) to fall to 3-3. The team rebounded to win six of its last seven including a season-ending 26-21 Gator Bowl win over Clemson to finish 9-4.

In 2009, Nebraska started 4-1 but losses to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7) dropped the team to 4-3. Simply getting to bowl eligible status looked like a chore. The Huskers again finished the season with six wins in their last seven contests including a 33-0 drubbing over Arizona in the Holiday Bowl to go 10-4.

Under Callahan, the team went 7-10 after a loss with five of them coming by three touchdowns or more.