Much was made about the Nebraska football team’s motivation for last season’s Holiday Bowl. Well, lack thereof would be a better description.
There are many reasons why the Huskers showed a lack of pizzazz in their 19-7 Holiday Bowl loss to Washington: 1) Nebraska was returning to a bowl game it played in one year early in which it blew Arizona’s doors off in a 33-0 whitewash; 2) The Huskers were facing a Washington team that it throttled 56-21 three months earlier; 3) Nebraska had set preseason goals of winning the Big 12 conference, beating Texas and achieving a BCS bowl bid. The Huskers achieved none; and 3) Washington was playing in its first bowl game since 2002 and was getting a rematch against a Husker team that lambasted them three months earlier. In hindsight, all of those things were a recipe for the Huskers lacking motivation and Washington having motivation that was sky high.
So what will be the motivation for South Carolina and Nebraska when they meet in the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 2? South Carolina certainly won’t lack for motivation as the Gamecocks are 10-2 entering the game and have a chance to record 11 wins for the first time in school history. Considering that South Carolina plays in the shadow of traditional SEC powerhouses like Alabama and most recently LSU and Florida that opportunity is significant.
Nebraska enters the game with a 9-3 record and fell short of its goals of winning the Big Ten Legends Division as well as the Big Ten conference title. For the Huskers, however, this game represents the chance to beat an SEC team. Yes, by virtue of Alabama and LSU playing in the BCS Title Game, the SEC is guaranteed to win its sixth straight crown. While the ESPN talking heads are going to continue to kiss the SEC’s butt, a win over an SEC team certainly looks goods. Plus, after having the humble pie of last year’s Holiday Bowl loss, Nebraska is not likely to want a second straight bowl loss.
Breaking down matchups is not just about who has the position-by-position edge; it is often decided by motivation. Granted, showing up ready to play is something that should be done before every game, not just a bowl game. Some people point to South Carolina’s 10-2 record and their SEC membership as rock solid proof that they’ll beat Nebraska but a close look reveals more.
The Gamecocks had five games decided by less than a touchdown this year; Nebraska had two. And while a 45-42 win against a scrappy Georgia team looks impressive, some too-close wins over Florida and Vanderbilt do not. South Carolina also plays in the comparatively weaker SEC East, and their play against the more dominant SEC West was terrible. They also had a 44-28 loss to Arkansas. They escaped with a 16-13 win over a mediocre 7-5 Auburn teams, and had a 14-12 win over a 6-6 Mississippi State. Absent from the schedule were Alabama and LSU, which would have easily been two more losses.
Looking at the statistical angle, quarterback Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team and replaced by Connor Shaw, who has completed 65% of his throws and has thrown 12 TD passes. As a unit, South Carolina has rushed for almost 2400 yards (NU: 2700) and passed for another 2100 (NU: 2000).
However, the receiving game has not always clicked for the Gamecocks as they’ve had 15 interceptions stolen against Nebraska’s seven. All things being equal, both teams are putting up similar total numbers on offense. South Carolina is probably split 60/40 towards the pass, while Nebraska is about 60/40 run.
Defensively, the Gamecocks fair well against the pass, but their inability to stop the run has been well documented. If Nebraska can get 100 yards from Burkhead and another 100 from everyone else, the Huskers will be in a great position to close out the game.
Special teams might be the deciding factor in this one, which tips in Nebraska’s favor. If punter Brett Maher can keep the Gamecocks pinned deep, Nebraska will have a good chance at winning this game.
I don’t think this will be a high scoring affair; if I had to pick today, I’d say that the score would look something like 24-17.
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