Better turnover margin can jump start the next step

If there is one thing that statistics can tell you is that numbers can convince you of just about anything.

Let’s face it, fans and media alike use statistics to back up their argument. Key word is “their” argument, not someone else’s point of view. The bottom liner would scoff and say, “The only stat that matters is winning.” While that is a true statement, it’s also a peerless insight into the obvious. There are reasons (aka common denominators) why a team wins or loses. From my vantage point there are three: turnover margin, third down conversions and red zone touchdown percentage.

Some people would say “points off turnovers” matter more than turnover margin. That’s true to a point but even that angle can be misleading because of a defensive team gets a takeaway near the end of a half with the lead, they are rarely looking to score. Instead, they are looking to run out the clock.

Third down conversions are vital because at some point, a team will face a clutch third down. Offenses can’t score if they cannot convert third downs and defenses cannot win unless they make those crucial stops on third down. Look no further than the NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants. True, Kyle Williams fumbling two punts loomed large in the Giants 20-17 overtime win but San Francisco’s offense did itself no favors by converting 1 of 13 third downs.

Red zone touchdown percentage is important because many games in the NFL and for that matter in college are decided by a touchdown or less. If an offense fails to convert a red zone trip into a touchdown, that’s four points it is taking away from itself. On the other hand, if a defense makes an offense settle for three points instead of getting a touchdown, that can also loom large.

In 2003, when Bo Pelini was Nebraska’s defensive coordinator, the Huskers produced 48 takeaways en route to a 10-3 season. When Pelini was named head coach in 2008, most people (myself included) were thinking Nebraska’s defense would produce more turnovers than the Hy-Vee Market bakery. Except, that has not been the case.

Pelini’s initial impact from taking the Huskers to an embarrassing 5-7 season in 2007 in Bill Callahan’s final season to 38-16 the last four has been very good. However, Nebraska has been unable to make the jump to being a BCS bowl team with turnover margin being a huge culprit.

Since Pelini took over in 2008, the Huskers are minus-8 in the takeaway-giveaway ratio. Nebraska has created 86 turnovers on defense but has coughed it up 94 times on offense.

Yes, there have been other aspects that have prevented the Huskers from taking the next step: dropped passes, a few too many penalties, Taylor Martinez’s passing or third down defense. All of those things need to improve. However, having a superior turnover margin is the fastest way to becoming an elite program.

Say what you want about dropped passes, penalties, Taylor Martinez's completion percentage or the Blackshirts' third-down defense. Each needs improvement.

In that same span, the Huskers are 2-7 against Top Ten teams primarily because they are minus-12 in the turnover margin category.