If there is one thing that statistics can tell you is that numbers
can convince you of just about anything.
Let’s face it, fans and media alike use statistics to back up
their argument. Key word is “their” argument, not someone else’s point of view.
The bottom liner would scoff and say, “The only stat that matters is winning.”
While that is a true statement, it’s also a peerless insight into the obvious. There
are reasons (aka common denominators) why a team wins or loses. From my vantage
point there are three: turnover margin, third down conversions and red zone
touchdown percentage.
Some people would say “points off turnovers” matter more than
turnover margin. That’s true to a point but even that angle can be misleading
because of a defensive team gets a takeaway near the end of a half with the
lead, they are rarely looking to score. Instead, they are looking to run out
the clock.
Third down conversions are vital because at some point, a team
will face a clutch third down. Offenses can’t score if they cannot convert
third downs and defenses cannot win unless they make those crucial stops on
third down. Look no further than the NFC Championship Game between the San
Francisco 49ers and New York Giants. True, Kyle Williams fumbling two punts
loomed large in the Giants 20-17 overtime win but San Francisco’s offense did
itself no favors by converting 1 of 13 third downs.
Red zone touchdown percentage is important because many games in
the NFL and for that matter in college are decided by a touchdown or less. If
an offense fails to convert a red zone trip into a touchdown, that’s four
points it is taking away from itself. On the other hand, if a defense makes an
offense settle for three points instead of getting a touchdown, that can also
loom large.
In 2003, when Bo Pelini was Nebraska’s defensive coordinator, the
Huskers produced 48 takeaways en route to a 10-3 season. When Pelini was named
head coach in 2008, most people (myself included) were thinking Nebraska’s
defense would produce more turnovers than the Hy-Vee Market bakery. Except,
that has not been the case.
Pelini’s initial impact from taking the Huskers to an embarrassing
5-7 season in 2007 in Bill Callahan’s final season to 38-16 the last four has
been very good. However, Nebraska has been unable to make the jump to being a
BCS bowl team with turnover margin being a huge culprit.
Since Pelini took over in 2008, the Huskers are minus-8 in the
takeaway-giveaway ratio. Nebraska has created 86 turnovers on defense but has
coughed it up 94 times on offense.
Yes, there have been other aspects that have prevented the Huskers
from taking the next step: dropped passes, a few too many penalties, Taylor
Martinez’s passing or third down defense. All of those things need to improve.
However, having a superior turnover margin is the fastest way to becoming an
elite program.
Say
what you want about dropped passes, penalties, Taylor Martinez's completion
percentage or the Blackshirts' third-down defense. Each needs improvement.
In
that same span, the Huskers are 2-7 against Top Ten teams primarily because
they are minus-12 in the turnover margin category.
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