Vegas odds for Husker win total 8.5

In the gambling world you frequently hear sports media types say, “For entertainment purposes only,” when it comes to point spreads on a particular game or a team’s projected win-loss total entering the season.

Entering the 2012 campaign, Las Vegas odds makers have Nebraska’s win total at 8.5 for the present time. While the Huskers 2012 schedule has its landmines, at this juncture, I would lean toward betting the over. Eight wins or fewer would be a disappointment, to be brutally honest.

The defense took a step back last season and the cynics would say that the Huskers are losing their top three players (DT Jared Crick, LB LaVonte David and CB Alfonso Dennard). Those players were never on the field at the same time.

David had a spectacular season, one of the best by a linebacker in Nebraska history. He will be missed. If not for him, the Huskers could have easily been 7-6 last season instead of 9-4. Crick, however, missed all of four games with a torn pectoral muscle and even the games he played Crick was a shadow of his old self. Dennard missed the first three games because of a hamstring injury but the loss of fellow cornerback Prince Amukamara meant that teams would not throw at Dennard anyhow. 

I believe the Huskers will sharpen their teeth again defensively in 2012 because those same players who were thrust into bigger roles sooner than anticipated will be better and if anything the defense will have more cohesion.

On the offensive side, you know full well that running back Rex Burkhead will get his yards but there is a difference between being the focal point of the offense and being the offense. Too often last season he was the latter. As long as quarterback Taylor Martinez stays healthy, nine wins should be the minimum expectation. If Martinez can continue to improve as a passer and if the receivers make routine catches, then ten wins is a strong possibility. Eleven wins would be a great season but for that goal to be reached the team will need to have a plus-turnover differential, which means getting timely takeaways on defense and protecting the ball on offense.

The two-week stretch that stands out is Sept. 29 at home against Wisconsin and Oct. 6 at Ohio State. While Montee Ball returns at running back the former is expected to take a step back but is also the favorite by default to win the Leaders division because Ohio State is not eligible to play in the Big Ten Title Game or a bowl game based on NCAA sanctions. The Buckeyes, however, are expected to improve significantly under new head coach Urban Meyer after suffering their first losing season since 1998. Meyer has a career record of 104-23 and there’s no reason to think he won’t get results at Ohio State.

This game will be a very telling point of Nebraska’s Big Ten season. If the Huskers go to Columbus and get their doors blown like they did in 48-17 and 45-17 losses to Wisconsin and Michigan respectively, then the 2012 season is looking a lot like the 2011 campaign when the Huskers went 9-4. If the game is close either way or if Nebraska wins decisively, then an 11-plus win season is possible.