There is only one spot in the AP rankings that separates No. 8 Nebraska and No. 7 Wisconsin in Saturday's matchup at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. However, if you listen to oddsmakers, message board posters and selected media types, one would think the two programs are very far apart.
The Badgers have been installed as an 11-point favorite to beat Nebraska. Wisconsin's status as the favorite is understandable for three reasons: a) They are playing at home and Camp Randall Stadium is a notoriously hostile environment for visiting teams and b) the Badgers have beaten their first four opponents by a combined score of 204-34 and c) while Nebraska is 4-0 like Wisconsin they have outscored their opponents by a combined 171-88.
Not that I profess to being betting expert but part of the premise for establishing point spreads is not necessarily about who oddsmakers believe is going to win and which bet are people most likely to take. Common sense says Wisconsin for the above reasons.
Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates wrote a refreshing piece of journalism in his Sunday column. He pointed out that Wisconsin is 4-0, winning by 34, 35, 42 and 49 points "against a group of hand-picked opponents that fell far short of expectations.
Oates notes that UNLV is rebuilding, Oregon State is experiencing a rare down year, Northern Illinois was a disappointment and South Dakota was out of its league.
In his Sunday column, Oates asks a couple questions even Nebraska fans wonder about: So did UW pound on some patsies or is it as good as its lopsided scores would indicate? More important, were the Badgers tested enough to prepare them for the Cornhuskers?
"We've definitely played a lot of good teams so far, just nobody at the level of Nebraska," Badgers defensive tackle Patrick Butrym said. "We need to just pick up the way we're playing overall. Everybody deals with that coming out of the non-conference schedule. It just needs to happen. I think we're ready for that because we've done this before."
Oates also added that More from Oates "if there's cause for optimism, it is that UW dominated its opponents like it should have. The starters rarely played in the fourth quarter, but in the first three quarters the Badgers' scoring margin was a telling 166-20.
Still, just enough problems surfaced along the way -- not rushing well early in games, missing tackles on defense, forcing few turnovers, committing too many penalties -- that the Badgers know they'll have to improve to beat the Cornhuskers, who knocked off Wyoming 38-14 on Saturday to improve to 4-0.
At which point I would add let's evaluate the competition each team has faced. OK, both have faced a D-I AA team. Nebraska beat UT-Chatanooga 40-7 and Wisconsin beat South Dakota 59-10. As for the Div. I-A schools both have faced. Nebraska has beaten Fresno State (42-29), Washington (51-38) and Wyoming (38-14). Wisconsin defeated UNLV (51-17), Oregon State (35-0) and Northern Illinois (49-7). Let's also keep in perspective that Oregon State lost 29-28 to Div. I-AA Sacramento State at home. Wisconsin's opponents are a combined 5-10. Nebraska's foes are a combined 10-6.
The truth of the matter is point spreads, predictions, etc. are a lot of conjecture and hyperbole but while the Badgers are a talented team offensively, they are hard to read however as they've played four of the worst teams in college football. UNLV just got whipped by 27 points by Southern Utah. Northern Illinois is obviously a practice game for any major conference team. The level of competition goes way up this week and the Huskers having played better competition have scored 42,45,51 and 38 points while not even playing very well.
I don't think Nebraska's defensive line is as dominant as people thought in the preseason and the secondary is a youth problem. You can prepare and motivate, but if you don't have the horses, there is only so much you can do. I'm more concerned with the Husker offense as an unknown. The good news is that the offense has moved the ball the last two weeks without being as reliant on the big play. The problem is Nebraska has a quartterback in Taylor Martinez whose decision making has improved but is still a work-in-progress primarily because he is a sophomore.
As for Wisconsin's offense, it features a big and bulky offensive line. The Badgers line averages 6-foot-5, 325-pounds per man but I still mantain that Wisconsin is likely to try generating its yards by spreading the Huskers out as opposed to say two or three tight ends.
The big question mark is whether or not the Husker offense can move the ball against a good defense, and they haven't really played one yet. Generally, by the fifth game, a team knows its identity. Nebraska isn't going to pull a shut down secondary out of a hat, and the pressure the front four applies is harried and un-controlled and is the kind of thing mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson eat up with that inexperience in the secondary. If Nebraska wins, there will be a lot of patient defense, pocket-containing pressure, and a fourth quarter where the offense is toss-sweep right and toss-sweep left getting 6-7 yards a pop.
Nebraska's biggest advantage in this game is the fact that Wisconsin's starters have only played three quarters in each of their four games. Of course, that advantage won't matter if the Badgers are ahead by three touchdowns entering the fourth quarter but if its a close game or if Nebraska is ahead -- advantage Huskers because they are better conditioned.
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