Entering Saturday's matchup, both Nebraska and Wisconsin have flaws

There is only one spot in the AP rankings that separates No. 8 Nebraska and No. 7 Wisconsin in Saturday's matchup at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. However, if you listen to oddsmakers, message board posters and selected media types, one would think the two programs are very far apart.


The Badgers have been installed as an 11-point favorite to beat Nebraska. Wisconsin's status as the favorite is understandable for three reasons: a) They are playing at home and Camp Randall Stadium is a notoriously hostile environment for visiting teams and b) the Badgers have beaten their first four opponents by a combined score of 204-34 and c) while Nebraska is 4-0 like Wisconsin they have outscored their opponents by a combined 171-88.

Not that I profess to being betting expert but part of the premise for establishing point spreads is not necessarily about who oddsmakers believe is going to win and which bet are people most likely to take. Common sense says Wisconsin for the above reasons.

Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates wrote a refreshing piece of journalism in his Sunday column. He pointed out that Wisconsin is 4-0, winning by 34, 35, 42 and 49 points "against a group of hand-picked opponents that fell far short of expectations.

Oates notes that UNLV is rebuilding, Oregon State is experiencing a rare down year, Northern Illinois was a disappointment and South Dakota was out of its league.

In his Sunday column, Oates asks a couple questions even Nebraska fans wonder about: So did UW pound on some patsies or is it as good as its lopsided scores would indicate? More important, were the Badgers tested enough to prepare them for the Cornhuskers?

"We've definitely played a lot of good teams so far, just nobody at the level of Nebraska," Badgers defensive tackle Patrick Butrym said. "We need to just pick up the way we're playing overall. Everybody deals with that coming out of the non-conference schedule. It just needs to happen. I think we're ready for that because we've done this before."

Oates also added that More from Oates "if there's cause for optimism, it is that UW dominated its opponents like it should have. The starters rarely played in the fourth quarter, but in the first three quarters the Badgers' scoring margin was a telling 166-20.

Still, just enough problems surfaced along the way -- not rushing well early in games, missing tackles on defense, forcing few turnovers, committing too many penalties -- that the Badgers know they'll have to improve to beat the Cornhuskers, who knocked off Wyoming 38-14 on Saturday to improve to 4-0.

At which point I would add let's evaluate the competition each team has faced. OK, both have faced a D-I AA team. Nebraska beat UT-Chatanooga 40-7 and Wisconsin beat South Dakota 59-10. As for the Div. I-A schools both have faced. Nebraska has beaten Fresno State (42-29), Washington (51-38) and Wyoming (38-14). Wisconsin defeated UNLV (51-17), Oregon State (35-0) and Northern Illinois (49-7). Let's also keep in perspective that Oregon State lost 29-28 to Div. I-AA Sacramento State at home. Wisconsin's opponents are a combined 5-10. Nebraska's foes are a combined 10-6.

The truth of the matter is point spreads, predictions, etc. are a lot of conjecture and hyperbole but while the Badgers are a talented team offensively, they are hard to read however as they've played four of the worst teams in college football. UNLV just got whipped by 27 points by Southern Utah. Northern Illinois is obviously a practice game for any major conference team. The level of competition goes way up this week and the Huskers having played better competition have scored 42,45,51 and 38 points while not even playing very well.

I don't think Nebraska's defensive line is as dominant as people thought in the preseason and the secondary is a youth problem. You can prepare and motivate, but if you don't have the horses, there is only so much you can do. I'm more concerned with the Husker offense as an unknown. The good news is that the offense has moved the ball the last two weeks without being as reliant on the big play. The problem is Nebraska has a quartterback in Taylor Martinez whose decision making has improved but is still a work-in-progress primarily because he is a sophomore.

As for Wisconsin's offense, it features a big and bulky offensive line. The Badgers line averages 6-foot-5, 325-pounds per man but I still mantain that Wisconsin is likely to try generating its yards by spreading the Huskers out as opposed to say two or three tight ends.

The big question mark is whether or not the Husker offense can move the ball against a good defense, and they haven't really played one yet. Generally, by the fifth game, a team knows its identity. Nebraska isn't going to pull a shut down secondary out of a hat, and the pressure the front four applies is harried and un-controlled and is the kind of thing mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson eat up with that inexperience in the secondary. If Nebraska wins, there will be a lot of patient defense, pocket-containing pressure, and a fourth quarter where the offense is toss-sweep right and toss-sweep left getting 6-7 yards a pop.



Nebraska's biggest advantage in this game is the fact that Wisconsin's starters have only played three quarters in each of their four games. Of course, that advantage won't matter if the Badgers are ahead by three touchdowns entering the fourth quarter but if its a close game or if Nebraska is ahead -- advantage Huskers because they are better conditioned.

Huskers still a work in progress

While it was disturbing to see No. 11 Nebraska make Saturday's 51-38 closer than it needed to be, the pluses definitely outweighed the minuses.


The Huskers led 20-17 at halftime and then opened the floodgates by taking a 44-17 lead early in the fourth quarter only to let the Huskies back in the game. Nebraska was never in danger of losing the game mind you but for the second time in as many weeks the defense lost its edge. Washington amassed 420 yards of offense and even more more disturbing Nebraska allowed to covert 7 of 14 third downs.

Granted, the loss of cornerback Alfonzo Dennard with a quad injury is a glaring one. His replacement (sophomore Andrew Green) got picked on all day. One would think Green will get better but he is not yet ready for primetime, all the more reason the Huskers really need Dennard healthy this season

You cannot expect Nebraska to have the kind of production in the back end when you have lost four NFL-caliber players (Prince Amukamara, Dejon Gomes, Eric Hagg (with Dennard still out due to injury.) While Ciante Evans, Green, Josh Mitchell, Daimion Stafford and other youngsters s are taking their licks (and their shots from opposing quarterbacks), it is incumbent on the front seven to generate pressure – particularly the front four.

In general the defensive line (especially defensive tackle Baker Steinkuher) played better than in last week's 42-29 win over Fresno State by getting more pressure on Keith Price than they did on Derek Carr but the fact that the defense did not capitalize on the offense's momentum is rather alarming.

The Huskers are going to need more quarters like the third when they head to Madison, Wisconsin, to play the Badgers.

Speaking of the offense, that unit enjoyed a definite growth spurt. Sure there were big plays but there were also drives. Nebraska had four scoring drives of seven or more plays, including a 10 play march late in the third that was capped with another Brett Maher field goal. So much for the concern over losing alex Henery as Maher is now 7 for 7.

The offensive line certainly deserves ample praise, especially walk-on Seung Hoon Choi and Tyler Moore. Nebraska put up 464 yards of total offense (404 rushing) as for the first time this season first-year coordinator Tim Beck used one play to set up another. On the game's opening play, with the defense thinking run, quarterback Taylor Martinez lofted a 50-yard completion to Kenny Bell to the Washington 3. On the next play, Martinez completed a touchdown pass to fullbak Tyler Legate on a bootleg.

As for Martinez, his passing numbers weren't pretty in completing 10 of 21 for 155 yards but he made much better decisions and protected the ball much better. Martinez will never be an NFL caliber passer or media friendly but he appears to be growing into his role.

It was also encouraging that when the offense had to run the ball to seal the win, they did. Running back Rex Burkhead rushed 22 times for 120 yards and two scores but most importantly, freshmen running backs Braylon Heard and Aaron Green supplied some good relief off the bench.

It wasn't pretty but overall an improvement over Fresno State.

Unlike the Holiday Bowl, Saturday's game will have Nebraska's attention

Nebraska and Washington meet for Round 3 in Lincoln, NE, on Saturday. Or as they say in baseball as a three-game series wraps up, it's the rubber match.


The two meetings last year between the two teams were the confluence of extemes. On Sept. 18 in Seattle, Nebraska chewed up the Huskies and spit them out. Quarterback Taylor Martinez had 139 yards rushing on 19 carries and scored two touchdowns. The Husker defense was equally dominant as the Blackshirts intercepted Jake Locker (who complete just 4 of 20 passes) twice. Nebraska rolled to a 56-21 win and catapulted to No. 6 in the rankings, leading most people to believe the Huskers were a darkhorse National Championship contender.

Nebraska, however, struggled down the stretch as the offense became a shadow of what it was early in the season, mostly due to Martinez's ankle injury. Nebraska was 10-2 in the regular season but a 23-20 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game relegated the Huskers to a second straight Holiday Bowl appearance, where they trounced Arizona 33-0 one year earlier. Washington had to win its last three regular season games just to finish 6-6 and become bowl eligible.

Washington was a better team at the end of the regular season than it was when the two teams met in Seattle while Nebraska had regressed since that time. While most people were predicting a much closer game, those same people figured Nebraska would still win by two touchdowns or more.

However, a strange thing happened, Washington won 19-7 but dominated much more than the final score suggested. The Huskers had no answer at all for running back Chris Polk, who rushed for 177 yards on 34 carries and one touchdown. Incidently, Polk is back and if that's not bad enough facing him comes one week after the Blackshirts were gouged by Fresno state's Robbie Rouse for 169 yards rushing.

Even worse than the loss, the Huskers appeared very apathetic about playing in the game even though they said all of the right things leading up to the contest. Perhaps we should have seen it coming because bowl games are often decided by which team is more motivated to be there. Nebraska entered last season with goals being: Beat Texas. Win the Big 12 North. Win the Big 12 Title Game. Get to a BCS Bowl Game. They achieved only one out of four. Considering the Huskers lofty preseason goals going awry coupled with playing a team they had already crushed and it's understandable why the team put up a listless effort.

On the other hand, Washington had not been to a bowl game since 2002 and had a winless season in 2008, the year before current head coach Steve Sarkisian arrived, so even the lowest end bowl game was an exiting proposition. Considering that the Huskies had their doors blown off by Nebraska in the earlier meeting, they were largely being told the second matchup would not be much different. Couple that with the fact that Washington entered the game having won its last three regular season games and its understandable why the team entered the Holiday Bowl feeling the need to prove the doubters wrong.

The dynamics are a lot different this time. Granted, there is one common denominator to each tea's 2011 season, they both struggled to put away a WAC team at home. Fresno State put a scare into the Huskers before Nebraska prevailed 42-29. Washington, meanwhile, blted to a 21-0 first quarter lead before holding off Hawaii 40-32. Both teams also opened the season against a Div. I-AA team. Despite an uneven offensive performance, the Huskers were not threatened as they defeated Tennesee-Chattanooga 40-7. Washington, meanwhile, struggled to beat Eastern Washington 30-27.

So what does all of this mean for Saturday? Nebraska has been tabbed a 21 point favorite and is the No. 11 ranked team in the nation. While the Huskers are considered the favorite to win the Big Legends division, this season has more of an "under the radar" feel than last season. Couple that with the fact that the Husker defense, which has been the team's calling card since Bo Pelini became the head coach, looked suspect last week against Fresno State. OK, it wasn't 2007 Kevin Cosgrove but substandard nonetheless.

A Pelini coached defense won't have two bad efforts in a row, right? Probably not but one thing is for certain, unlike the Holiday Bowl, this matchup will have Nebraska's attention. Which bodes well.