Sunday, February 26, 2012

Can the Blackshirts regain their mojo?

It did not take Nebraska long to develop a reputation for being a stout defense after Bo Pelini took over as head coach in 2008.
While the Huskers were decent defensively in 2011, they were not the authoritative bunch they were in 2009 and to a lesser extent 2010. Part of that dropoff was exacerbated by the season-ending injury to defensive tackle Jared Crick (torn pectoral muscle) in Week 5.
Despite the fact the Husker defense was at times a letdown last season, there were some bright spots such as the team’s dominant 24-3 win over Michigan State and the second half dominance that fueled a 34-27 come-from-behind win over Ohio State in addition to the unit’s outstanding effort in a 20-7 win over Iowa.
Nebraska did finish pretty well (Top 40) statistically and has some decent pieces returning. By average, I mean the Huskers finished 37th in total defense and 42nd in scoring defense.
Nebraska wound up tied for 18th in passing defense and 34th in pass efficiency defense. Even though defensive backs coach Corey Raymond was the target of some fans’ criticism, once the secondary started picking up the scheme better, the team finished fairly well defending the pass.
However, the Huskers were tied for 72nd in interceptions (with 10), tied for 84th in sacks (21), and 64th in rushing defense. Nebraska also finished with a minus-1 turnover margin with 18 takeaways and had 19 giveaways. This tells me they need to get far more pressure on opposing teams quarterbacks to force mistakes that lead to turnovers, and to increase sack numbers. At the very least, make the opposing quarterback throw the ball a fraction of a second sooner than he wants. This would increase takeaways.

The Huskers also need to find a way to better shut down the running game. Nebraska could not do that this season when it needed to do so. As good as Michigan State’s running game was, it was somewhat mind-boggling that the Spartans tried to beat Nebraska with the arm of pocket passer Kirk Cousins. It’s no secret that Pelini’s defenses have had little trouble with such passers.

Most of those negative statistics came from a mediocre effort from the defensive line and in the early part of the season, the linebackers. Lavonte David was obviously a stud all year, and Will Compton really improved late in the season. However, for the most part, the line got pushed around in the Big 10 by the good teams, most notably Wisconsin and Michigan.

The defensive line problems are perhaps due to a combination of the collective talent level on the line and the scheme. I’m of the belief that head coach Bo Pelini and defensive line coach Rick Kaczsenski should take a long hard look and changing around the two-gap scheme this offseason in order to more effectively combat the power running styles of Wisconsin and Iowa and to get more pressure on Spread teams like Ohio State or Michigan.
Nebraska has four set starters on the line for next year in Eric Martin, Cameron Meredith, Baker Steinkuhler, and Chase Rome. I would hope the influx of talent from the redshirts and true freshman could help here. The line will likely rotate a lot, so we could be seeing some of Todd Peat as well as perhaps Greg McMullen and Jason Ankrah.

While losing David is a tough blow at linebacker, I think Nebraska will be OK at that position. Compton improved visibly near the end and looked to assume a leadership role. Alonzo Whaley started filling in when the coaches finally realized Sean Fisher wasn't effective. Beyond that, Zaire Anderson and Michael Rose have the best chance of playing next season among Nebraska’s newcomers.

Rose is going to be a real good one. II expect a much improved overall unit next year, even with the loss of David. Not a ton of experience here, but potential is through the roof. Will that potential transfer to production next year? Remains to be seen.

The secondary also loses its best player in Alfonzo Dennard but also loses some of the single most frustrating players for the fans on the team: Austin Cassidy and Lance Thorrell are gone. Now, this isn't really a knock on these guys. Since they're in the secondary, everyone is going to know when they screw up but they've long been perceived as guys who were less athletic than those that should be starting for Nebraska, and now the Huskers forced to adapt.

Pelini is going to have to put someone else back there deep, regardless of whether the grasp the scheme as fully as Cassidy or not. Depth wise in the secondary the Huskers are not too bad. Damion Stafford is back for his senior campaign and should have a spot locked down. The other safety spot is up for grab. I see that competition playing out between Courtney Osborne, P.J. Smith, or Harvey Jackson. I see Smith or Osborne winning. At cornerback, Andrew Green should be vastly improved along with Ciante Evans, Antonio Bell, and Stanley Jean-Baptiste back. Dijon Washington looks to be a non-contributer at this point, and Bell hasn't done much either. JC transfer Mohammed Seisay should also make an impact as, worst case scenario a nickel back.
I think in order to more effectively fix the defense for next season; the staff should rethink the 2 gap scheme for our D-line in favor of a more penetration-happy scheme, and consider becoming less of a bend-don't-break.

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