Perhaps the most comical thing to listen to from a football fan (high school, college or NFL) in February besides NFL draft hype or college recruiting rankings is gauging strength of schedule for the upcoming season.
Nebraska football fans are no different. Whether it is looking at message boards, Facebook and Twitter or listening to talk radio, expectations for the 2012 season range from the cynical group (6-6 and barely bowl eligible) to realistic (say 9-3 and another early New Years’ Day bowl game in Florida) to Kool Aid sipping (say anything less than 11-1 is a pathetic failure).
The Huskers’ first game is not until Sept. 1 when Southern Mississippi comes to Lincoln. I know. You want answers. We live in an instant gratification world. Instead, the thumbnail sketch of each opponent will have to whet your palate for now:
September 1, vs. Southern Mississippi: The last time these two teams met in 2004, Nebraska committed an unsightly six turnovers in a 21-17 loss in Game Two of the Bill Callahan era. The Huskers actually outgained the Golden Eagles 2-to-1 in total yards but six turnovers will hurt anyone’s chances of winning. This game is the most stringent season opener since Oklahoma State in 2003. Southern Miss was solid defensively a year ago but loses three starters and has a new coaching staff.
September 8, at UCLA: For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers are facing a team breaking in a new coaching staff. The Bruins underachieved last season on the way to a 6-8 season that ultimately cost head coach Rick Neuheisul (everyone’s favorite in Nebraska) his job, since replaced by Jim Mora Jr. The Bruins are a talented but enigmatic bunch which means they could be 7-5 or 10-2 but the former is more likely in a conference that already has powerhouses like Stanford, Oregon and USC. With 16 returning starters, you have to like Nebraska’s chances. The question is, will Nebraska be making a trip to the Rose Bowl in January? Possible but not probable.
September 15, vs. Arkansas State: The cynics are going to take their Sun Belt jabs, however, Arkansas State is not a bottom of the barrel Sun Belt team either. The Red Wolves were a bowl team last year. Granted, being a bowl team nowadays is ridiculously easy but you get the idea. The Red Wolves hired head coach Gus Malzahn, who is known as a bright offensive mind, along with Michael Dyer at running back. Dyer transferred from Auburn, where he rushed for over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons. The truth of the matter, however, is that the Red Wolves are still a Sun Belt that is not going to beat an upper-third Big Ten team in their building.
9/22, TBA: However, it is likely going to be a body bag game.
9/29: vs. Wisconsin: The Badgers lose Russell Wilson and Nick Toon, which will slow their offense but Wisconsin has enough of a culture in place to where it tends to restock its cupboard quickly. Both teams have excellent running backs in Rex Burkhead (Nebraska) and Monte Ball (Wisconsin). This game will come down to Husker quarterback Taylor Martinez not making negative plays like last year’s 48-17 loss in Madison. Complain about play-calling all you want but made decisions that night that were bad for high school JV quarterbacks.
10/6: at Ohio State: If there is one thing that new Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer has proven is that he knows how to coach quarterbacks. In which case, look for Braxton Miller to blossom under Meyer’s tutelage. The Huskers will have their share of turnover on defense but the Blackshirts need to have gelled by this game if not sooner especially since this game is in Columbus. Otherwise, the Huskers could be looking at a long day.
10/20, at Northwestern: Coming off a bye week, Bo Pelini and Company should be eager to avenge last year’s 28-25 head-scratcher of a loss in Lincoln. Quarterback Dan Persa is gone but Nebraska had a hard time containing backup Kain Colter, who rushed for 57 yards. Colter is no Dennard Robinson but not easy to contain nonetheless.
10/27, vs. Michigan: This figures to be a crucial game in the Legends Division race as Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska play each other over a three-week stretch. Robinson leads an explosive offense and the Blackshirts have to slow them down to have a chance. The Wolverines won’t win 45-17 in Lincoln like they did in Ann Arbor a year ago when the two teams met but with eight returning starters on defense, Michigan will be a handful.
11/3, at Michigan State: The Spartans return key defenders but the question is, who evolves quicker? The Spartan defense or the Husker offense? Last season, the Husker defense dominated Michigan State which had an offense of Kirk Cousins and a receiving corps that included B.J. Cunningham.
11/10, vs. Penn State: Besides the off-the-field issues, Penn State is breaking in an entirely new coaching staff led by Bill O’Brien. Penn State was a very talented team on the defensive side of the ball, but only returns five starters. The Lions also have only five starters coming back on offense but when you rank 110th in scoring, is that a bad thing? Penn State should be better but breaking in a new coaching staff takes time.
11/17, vs. Minnesota: Jerry Kill might just be the guy that leads Minnesota back to respectability. The Gophers should have a more potent offense but they have a lot of gaps to fill on defense. Nebraska should win this game going away. Key word “should.”
11/23: at Iowa: This game screams “advantage Nebraska” because Iowa lost both coordinators and their defensive line coach (Rick Kaczenski) jumped ship to Nebraska. Though it could be said about any game, the Husker offense needs to be clicking because playing in Iowa City is no walk in the park. The Hawkeyes were 7-6 last season but play solid defense and are balanced enough on offense to give teams a headache.
I'm not suggesting that the optimism of this blog entry is anything but drug-induced, but the schedule does align better for Nebraska in 2012. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, and UCLA will have almost entirely new staffs. Iowa has a bunch of turnover in that department as well. There is no question that those programs (all Nebraska opponents) will struggle a little next year the same way the Husker staff struggled to game plan for twelve new opponents, not to mention that they don’t have a good sense of their own personnel. That scenario leads me to this: Nebraska does not have to game plan for 12 new opponents and has a better understanding of its personnel. This is worth at least two wins this year.
The non-conference slate is interesting because of the staff turnover, but Nebraska should beat Arkansas State and Southern Miss on talent and scheme alone and pull out a win over UCLA while Mora is getting his ducks in a row. The game at Ohio State and at home against Michigan will define the Huskers season.
Best case: 11-1, trip to the Big Ten Championship
Worst case: 8-4, playing in a mid-level bowl like the Gator or Insight
Realistic: 9-3, possibly winning the Legends depending on how the Wolverines and Spartans play. Not controlling our own destiny.
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