No overstating importance of Saturday tilt with Wisconsin

The nonconference season is over, which means beginning this week, the rubber meets the road for the Nebraska football team beginning Saturday when the No. 22 ranked Huskers host Wisconsin.

Both clubs are 3-1, each losing to Pac 12 teams. Nebraska lost 36-30 to UCLA while the Badgers lost 10-7 at Oregon State, which defeated UCLA 27-20. Both clubs have three wins over lesser clubs. The Huskers, however, have won more decisively. Nebraska has wins over Southern Mississippi (49-20), Arkansas State (42-13) and Idaho State (73-7). Wisconsin has defeated Northern Iowa (26-21), Utah State (16-14) and UTEP (37-26).

The term “big game” can be an overstatement but for Nebraska the importance of this game simply cannot be overstated. The Huskers have visions and goals of winning their first conference title since 1999. Not beating a scuffling but maybe still decent Badger club at home would be a bad sign.

These two clubs met last season in Madison, Wisc., where the Badgers greeted Nebraska rudely in their Big Ten debut with a 48-17 shellacking on national television. This game will also be on national television with the Huskers looking to return the favor. While it is human nature to think about revenge, the Huskers also have to walk a thin line in not getting preoccupied so much that they lose sight of the task at hand.

Wisconsin is not nearly the team Nebraska played last year and the Huskers have a huge home field edge, so if all goes well, they could come out with a win. While winning this game is only Step #1 in the process of winning the Big Ten crown, a loss would hurt the season badly.

The only way the Huskers are going to re-establish their brand is to look good on some national telecasts against still competition. A big win over Idaho State was fun but it did nothing to re-establish us among the nation's college football elite. Unfortunately, Nebraska has laid a number of eggs on national TV lately. It's time to reverse that trend.

After four games we really don't know what Nebraska has. The Huskers pasted three bad teams and gave up 653 yards to a UCLA team that is probably an 8-4/9-3 type of club. There is no way Nebraska should lose this game simply based on what we've seen from Wisconsin so far. While the Huskers may have question marks you can at least look at them and say "well, there's a pretty good team."

This is the single most important game on Nebraska's schedule. You simply can't lose at home to a Wisconsin team that is nowhere near last year's level and then face going to Columbus, Ohio with a realistic chance of starting conference play at 0-2. No room for error the rest of the season if that were to happen.

The revenge aspect is overblown. It’s for fans and media to dwell on, but rarely has much to do with what actually happens on the field.

 

Balance means equally well, not equally often

In football, you hear coaches, fans and media members talking about a balanced offense as it pertains to running and passing the ball.

The question is, do they mean equally often or equally well?

When a football team relies on the run to gain yardage, some people like to assume that team is not adept at throwing the ball. The same holds true in reverse. It’s as if there’s no in-between.

My belief is that too many fans, at all levels of football —with a shallow knowledge of the game — see the idea of “balanced offense” as throwing the ball, say, 25 times as well as running 25 times or throwing for an equal number of yards (plus or minus a few) as rushing.

I would contend that being balanced is not about how often you do both (run and pass) or what is the yardage distribution between run and pass — it’s about how well or efficiently you do both.

For instance, let’s say a team runs 25 times for 130 yards. That’s five yards and change per carry. Let’s also say they threw 25 times and completed 10 passes — that’s under 50 percent. That’s not a balanced offense.

It means you were good at one but stunk at the other.

Example No. 2, let’s say a team rushes 50 times for 275 yards and completes 7 of 10 passes. Too me, that’s balanced because they did both well.

As Nebraska football has reported to fall camp, I am hearing a little too much with regard to “what is Nebraska’s identity?” It’s simple, they are a running team. Just because they pass from time-to-time does not make them a passing team as opposed to a running team.

Being “multiple” as head coach Bo Pelini and Tim Beck suggest they want to be does not mean they are confused or don’t have an identity. It just means their idea of balanced is both phases, run and pass, being effective weapons. The ability to force a defense to play you honestly (defend both run and pass) is the key to a successful offense. Teams with poor offensive showings usually have no balance and the defense loads up to stop one phase.  

Since the NFL has become so quarterback-driven, the idea of “run to set up the pass” is an outmoded idea. Are you listening, Mike Singletary?

At that level of football, the philosophy is centered on “pass to get the lead, run to seal the win.”

The college game, however, has more of a mixture of such philosophy because there are teams that run a pro-style offense with dropback passers, and there are teams that run offenses that involve the quarterback running the ball.

As for the high school game, the run sets up the pass because after all, a high school team running a West Coast Offense will be the exception not the norm.

So how does this pertain to Nebraska for 2012? The Huskers also have their best group of receivers and tight ends since the Bill Callahan days, and quarterback Taylor Martinez is supposedly better at decisions and accuracy but you also have an All-American starting at tailback in Rex Burkhead, with two quality backups (Ameer Abdullah ad Braylon Heard). The tiebreaker is this, of the first four games Nebraska plays, the average of last year’s defenses of those teams is ranked 69th in passing and 66th in rushing (Passing: 92nd Southern Mississippi, 87nd UCLA, 53rd Arkansas St, 44^th) On the running side (Southern Mississippi, 25th; UCLA 14^th; Arkansas St. 120th).

I’m not suggesting those to be games where you suddenly morph into the Don Coryell-era San Diego Chargers but use those games as a means of “pass to set up run.”

I don't think there is going to be a drastic change to the amount of passes thrown, but more receptions. It won’t be the 70% completion rate that Martinez has established as a goal but a better passing game with an already good ground game turns into points. There will be at least minimal improvement to the defense, and I still see a lot of running to run the clock out. I think the biggest change is the use of more running backs other than Burkhead.

2012 Game-by-game forecast

Phil Steele’s college football magazine comes out in the next ten days. Who knows where you might find an early copy — but he’s got Nebraska at No. 17 in his preseason poll. He also has Iowa (No. 38); Michigan (No. 22) and Michigan State (No. 19) are ranked behind NU so it stands to reason that Steele sees the Huskers as a slight Legends Division favorite.

There’s no reason Nebraska shouldn’t be better in all phases of the game in 2012 compared last year. Michigan probably will be the same as last year, which was good, but they lose Mike Martin on the defensive line which will be a huge loss for them. The game against Michigan will be played in Lincoln this year and I expect that to make some difference. Michigan State has a new quarterback and is replacing a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Like last year, the Legends Division figures to be a tight race.

Taking a very early look at the 2012 schedule here's how I foresee it going. Please note that I have done zero research and I'm just going off of what I remember from last season and projecting towards 2012.

Southern Miss...Win--95% probability. The Golden Eagles looked very impressive in their 24-17 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl but the Eagles lost their head coach to another team, their starting quarterback to graduation, along with a host of other players who had started for several seasons. In short, Southern Miss will essentially be starting over from scratch.

@ UCLA...Win--90% probability. New coach, new system and more than likely it will be a pro-style. Which plays right into the kind of defense Nebraska likes to play, meaning rush the front four, drop seven into coverage and play a match-up zone. The questions I have are, how will Devin Fuller be used, will he redshirt, or will new head coach Jim Mora roll the dice and play a true freshman? If I were Mora, I'd design an offense around what Fuller can do and take the lumps with a true freshman starting at quarterback.

Arkansas St...W--99.999999999999% probability. The only way the Red Wolves win, or even have a shot, is if Nebraska has another -8 turnover day like they did against Iowa State in 2009.

Idaho St...W--99.999999999999% probability. See Ark St.

Wisconsin...W--50% probability. There are two upsides: 1) the game is in Lincoln and 2) no more Russell Wilson. Even still this will be a tough physical game for the Huskers. One thing is certain though Nebraska’s defensive line and indeed whole defense will have to step up big time in the tough and physical department.

@ Ohio St. L--60% probability. On the road, versus a shifty, agile, mobile, quarterback and a defense that well, quite frankly, gets embarrassed too frequently by mobile QBs. If Nebraska can contain Braxton Miller and avoid turnovers they can pull it out, but it will be an intense uphill climb.

@ Northwestern...W--50% probability. The biggest question I have is will Nebraska actually take the Wildcats seriously this time around? They’d be crazy not to after the wildcats came into Lincoln last year and pulled off a 28-25 upset. While Northwestern loses a lot of people their biggest difference maker, Cain Kolter, returns.

Michigan...L--75% probability. Unless Bo Pelini changes or tweaks his defensive philosophy, this is another probable loss. I hate to harp on it but look at the way Michigan State played Michigan and then contrast it with the way the Huskers played the Wolverines. The Spartans blitzed and pressured Denard Robinson and the Huskers played a soft coverage. Well the results of those two games are a stark reminder of why I do not really like Nebraska's chances here.

@ Michigan St...W--75% probability. Kirk Cousins, their two top wide receivers, and one running back are gone so there will be some retooling. This is another on the road dangerous game that if Nebraska doesn't take seriously they could lose.

Penn St...W--85% probability. This is a program in shambles. The new head coach for the Lions has his work cut out for him to say the least. This could be an ugly year for them.

Minnesota...W--96% probability. The Gophers just don't have the personnel to compete.

@ Iowa...W--65% probability. Nebraska typically doesn't struggle against Iowa the way other Big 10 teams do, although now that we're in the Big 10 there will be much more familiarity as we'll play every season. But for now, the Huskers have the edge.

Best case scenario: Undefeated season with a conference and national title as well.

Okay, now that the laughter has subsided, I think the best case scenario for 2012 is a 10-2 regular season. I see Nebraska more than likely losing to Michigan and Ohio State. I think that Nebraska loses due to how Pelini plays his defensive scheme not because I think the Huskers aren't talented enough to compete or win.

Worst case, and this could get real ugly real fast, Nebraska loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and tanks to 6-6.

I'll sort of split the difference and say 9-3 in the regular season with losses to MU, OSU and some unranked team at home.

Looking ahead to 2012

Perhaps the most comical thing to listen to from a football fan (high school, college or NFL) in February besides NFL draft hype or college recruiting rankings is gauging strength of schedule for the upcoming season.


Nebraska football fans are no different. Whether it is looking at message boards, Facebook and Twitter or listening to talk radio, expectations for the 2012 season range from the cynical group (6-6 and barely bowl eligible) to realistic (say 9-3 and another early New Years’ Day bowl game in Florida) to Kool Aid sipping (say anything less than 11-1 is a pathetic failure).

The Huskers’ first game is not until Sept. 1 when Southern Mississippi comes to Lincoln. I know. You want answers. We live in an instant gratification world. Instead, the thumbnail sketch of each opponent will have to whet your palate for now:

September 1, vs. Southern Mississippi: The last time these two teams met in 2004, Nebraska committed an unsightly six turnovers in a 21-17 loss in Game Two of the Bill Callahan era. The Huskers actually outgained the Golden Eagles 2-to-1 in total yards but six turnovers will hurt anyone’s chances of winning. This game is the most stringent season opener since Oklahoma State in 2003. Southern Miss was solid defensively a year ago but loses three starters and has a new coaching staff.

September 8, at UCLA: For the second time in as many weeks, the Huskers are facing a team breaking in a new coaching staff. The Bruins underachieved last season on the way to a 6-8 season that ultimately cost head coach Rick Neuheisul (everyone’s favorite in Nebraska) his job, since replaced by Jim Mora Jr. The Bruins are a talented but enigmatic bunch which means they could be 7-5 or 10-2 but the former is more likely in a conference that already has powerhouses like Stanford, Oregon and USC. With 16 returning starters, you have to like Nebraska’s chances. The question is, will Nebraska be making a trip to the Rose Bowl in January? Possible but not probable.

September 15, vs. Arkansas State: The cynics are going to take their Sun Belt jabs, however, Arkansas State is not a bottom of the barrel Sun Belt team either. The Red Wolves were a bowl team last year. Granted, being a bowl team nowadays is ridiculously easy but you get the idea. The Red Wolves hired head coach Gus Malzahn, who is known as a bright offensive mind, along with Michael Dyer at running back. Dyer transferred from Auburn, where he rushed for over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons. The truth of the matter, however, is that the Red Wolves are still a Sun Belt that is not going to beat an upper-third Big Ten team in their building.

9/22, TBA: However, it is likely going to be a body bag game.

9/29: vs. Wisconsin: The Badgers lose Russell Wilson and Nick Toon, which will slow their offense but Wisconsin has enough of a culture in place to where it tends to restock its cupboard quickly. Both teams have excellent running backs in Rex Burkhead (Nebraska) and Monte Ball (Wisconsin). This game will come down to Husker quarterback Taylor Martinez not making negative plays like last year’s 48-17 loss in Madison. Complain about play-calling all you want but made decisions that night that were bad for high school JV quarterbacks.

10/6: at Ohio State: If there is one thing that new Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer has proven is that he knows how to coach quarterbacks. In which case, look for Braxton Miller to blossom under Meyer’s tutelage. The Huskers will have their share of turnover on defense but the Blackshirts need to have gelled by this game if not sooner especially since this game is in Columbus. Otherwise, the Huskers could be looking at a long day.

10/20, at Northwestern: Coming off a bye week, Bo Pelini and Company should be eager to avenge last year’s 28-25 head-scratcher of a loss in Lincoln. Quarterback Dan Persa is gone but Nebraska had a hard time containing backup Kain Colter, who rushed for 57 yards. Colter is no Dennard Robinson but not easy to contain nonetheless.

10/27, vs. Michigan: This figures to be a crucial game in the Legends Division race as Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska play each other over a three-week stretch. Robinson leads an explosive offense and the Blackshirts have to slow them down to have a chance. The Wolverines won’t win 45-17 in Lincoln like they did in Ann Arbor a year ago when the two teams met but with eight returning starters on defense, Michigan will be a handful.

11/3, at Michigan State: The Spartans return key defenders but the question is, who evolves quicker? The Spartan defense or the Husker offense? Last season, the Husker defense dominated Michigan State which had an offense of Kirk Cousins and a receiving corps that included B.J. Cunningham.

11/10, vs. Penn State: Besides the off-the-field issues, Penn State is breaking in an entirely new coaching staff led by Bill O’Brien. Penn State was a very talented team on the defensive side of the ball, but only returns five starters. The Lions also have only five starters coming back on offense but when you rank 110th in scoring, is that a bad thing? Penn State should be better but breaking in a new coaching staff takes time.

11/17, vs. Minnesota: Jerry Kill might just be the guy that leads Minnesota back to respectability. The Gophers should have a more potent offense but they have a lot of gaps to fill on defense. Nebraska should win this game going away. Key word “should.”

11/23: at Iowa: This game screams “advantage Nebraska” because Iowa lost both coordinators and their defensive line coach (Rick Kaczenski) jumped ship to Nebraska. Though it could be said about any game, the Husker offense needs to be clicking because playing in Iowa City is no walk in the park. The Hawkeyes were 7-6 last season but play solid defense and are balanced enough on offense to give teams a headache.
I'm not suggesting that the optimism of this blog entry is anything but drug-induced, but the schedule does align better for Nebraska in 2012. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, and UCLA will have almost entirely new staffs. Iowa has a bunch of turnover in that department as well. There is no question that those programs (all Nebraska opponents) will struggle a little next year the same way the Husker staff struggled to game plan for twelve new opponents, not to mention that they don’t have a good sense of their own personnel. That scenario leads me to this: Nebraska does not have to game plan for 12 new opponents and has a better understanding of its personnel. This is worth at least two wins this year.
The non-conference slate is interesting because of the staff turnover, but Nebraska should beat Arkansas State and Southern Miss on talent and scheme alone and pull out a win over UCLA while Mora is getting his ducks in a row. The game at Ohio State and at home against Michigan will define the Huskers season.

Best case: 11-1, trip to the Big Ten Championship

Worst case: 8-4, playing in a mid-level bowl like the Gator or Insight
Realistic: 9-3, possibly winning the Legends depending on how the Wolverines and Spartans play. Not controlling our own destiny.