Phil Steele’s
college football magazine comes out in the next ten days. Who knows where you
might find an early copy — but he’s got Nebraska at No. 17 in his preseason
poll. He also has Iowa (No. 38); Michigan (No. 22) and Michigan State (No. 19)
are ranked behind NU so it stands to reason that Steele sees the Huskers as a
slight Legends Division favorite.
There’s no reason Nebraska shouldn’t be better in all phases
of the game in 2012 compared last year. Michigan probably will be the same as
last year, which was good, but they lose Mike Martin on the defensive line
which will be a huge loss for them. The game against Michigan will be played in
Lincoln this year and I expect that to make some difference. Michigan State has
a new quarterback and is replacing a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Like
last year, the Legends Division figures to be a tight race.
Taking a very
early look at the 2012 schedule here's how I foresee it going. Please note that
I have done zero research and I'm just going off of what I remember from last
season and projecting towards 2012.
Southern Miss...Win--95% probability. The Golden Eagles looked very impressive in their 24-17 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl but the Eagles lost their head coach to another team, their starting quarterback to graduation, along with a host of other players who had started for several seasons. In short, Southern Miss will essentially be starting over from scratch.
@ UCLA...Win--90% probability. New coach, new system and more than likely it will be a pro-style. Which plays right into the kind of defense Nebraska likes to play, meaning rush the front four, drop seven into coverage and play a match-up zone. The questions I have are, how will Devin Fuller be used, will he redshirt, or will new head coach Jim Mora roll the dice and play a true freshman? If I were Mora, I'd design an offense around what Fuller can do and take the lumps with a true freshman starting at quarterback.
Arkansas St...W--99.999999999999% probability. The only way the Red Wolves win, or even have a shot, is if Nebraska has another -8 turnover day like they did against Iowa State in 2009.
Idaho St...W--99.999999999999% probability. See Ark St.
Wisconsin...W--50% probability. There are two upsides: 1) the game is in Lincoln and 2) no more Russell Wilson. Even still this will be a tough physical game for the Huskers. One thing is certain though Nebraska’s defensive line and indeed whole defense will have to step up big time in the tough and physical department.
@ Ohio St. L--60% probability. On the road, versus a shifty, agile, mobile, quarterback and a defense that well, quite frankly, gets embarrassed too frequently by mobile QBs. If Nebraska can contain Braxton Miller and avoid turnovers they can pull it out, but it will be an intense uphill climb.
@ Northwestern...W--50% probability. The biggest question I have is will Nebraska actually take the Wildcats seriously this time around? They’d be crazy not to after the wildcats came into Lincoln last year and pulled off a 28-25 upset. While Northwestern loses a lot of people their biggest difference maker, Cain Kolter, returns.
Michigan...L--75% probability. Unless Bo Pelini changes or tweaks his defensive philosophy, this is another probable loss. I hate to harp on it but look at the way Michigan State played Michigan and then contrast it with the way the Huskers played the Wolverines. The Spartans blitzed and pressured Denard Robinson and the Huskers played a soft coverage. Well the results of those two games are a stark reminder of why I do not really like Nebraska's chances here.
@ Michigan St...W--75% probability. Kirk Cousins, their two top wide receivers, and one running back are gone so there will be some retooling. This is another on the road dangerous game that if Nebraska doesn't take seriously they could lose.
Penn St...W--85% probability. This is a program in shambles. The new head coach for the Lions has his work cut out for him to say the least. This could be an ugly year for them.
Minnesota...W--96% probability. The Gophers just don't have the personnel to compete.
@ Iowa...W--65% probability. Nebraska typically doesn't struggle against Iowa the way other Big 10 teams do, although now that we're in the Big 10 there will be much more familiarity as we'll play every season. But for now, the Huskers have the edge.
Best case scenario: Undefeated season with a conference and national title as well.
Okay, now that the laughter has subsided, I think the best case scenario for 2012 is a 10-2 regular season. I see Nebraska more than likely losing to Michigan and Ohio State. I think that Nebraska loses due to how Pelini plays his defensive scheme not because I think the Huskers aren't talented enough to compete or win.
Worst case, and this could get real ugly real fast, Nebraska loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and tanks to 6-6.
I'll sort of split the difference and say 9-3 in the regular season with losses to MU, OSU and some unranked team at home.
Southern Miss...Win--95% probability. The Golden Eagles looked very impressive in their 24-17 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl but the Eagles lost their head coach to another team, their starting quarterback to graduation, along with a host of other players who had started for several seasons. In short, Southern Miss will essentially be starting over from scratch.
@ UCLA...Win--90% probability. New coach, new system and more than likely it will be a pro-style. Which plays right into the kind of defense Nebraska likes to play, meaning rush the front four, drop seven into coverage and play a match-up zone. The questions I have are, how will Devin Fuller be used, will he redshirt, or will new head coach Jim Mora roll the dice and play a true freshman? If I were Mora, I'd design an offense around what Fuller can do and take the lumps with a true freshman starting at quarterback.
Arkansas St...W--99.999999999999% probability. The only way the Red Wolves win, or even have a shot, is if Nebraska has another -8 turnover day like they did against Iowa State in 2009.
Idaho St...W--99.999999999999% probability. See Ark St.
Wisconsin...W--50% probability. There are two upsides: 1) the game is in Lincoln and 2) no more Russell Wilson. Even still this will be a tough physical game for the Huskers. One thing is certain though Nebraska’s defensive line and indeed whole defense will have to step up big time in the tough and physical department.
@ Ohio St. L--60% probability. On the road, versus a shifty, agile, mobile, quarterback and a defense that well, quite frankly, gets embarrassed too frequently by mobile QBs. If Nebraska can contain Braxton Miller and avoid turnovers they can pull it out, but it will be an intense uphill climb.
@ Northwestern...W--50% probability. The biggest question I have is will Nebraska actually take the Wildcats seriously this time around? They’d be crazy not to after the wildcats came into Lincoln last year and pulled off a 28-25 upset. While Northwestern loses a lot of people their biggest difference maker, Cain Kolter, returns.
Michigan...L--75% probability. Unless Bo Pelini changes or tweaks his defensive philosophy, this is another probable loss. I hate to harp on it but look at the way Michigan State played Michigan and then contrast it with the way the Huskers played the Wolverines. The Spartans blitzed and pressured Denard Robinson and the Huskers played a soft coverage. Well the results of those two games are a stark reminder of why I do not really like Nebraska's chances here.
@ Michigan St...W--75% probability. Kirk Cousins, their two top wide receivers, and one running back are gone so there will be some retooling. This is another on the road dangerous game that if Nebraska doesn't take seriously they could lose.
Penn St...W--85% probability. This is a program in shambles. The new head coach for the Lions has his work cut out for him to say the least. This could be an ugly year for them.
Minnesota...W--96% probability. The Gophers just don't have the personnel to compete.
@ Iowa...W--65% probability. Nebraska typically doesn't struggle against Iowa the way other Big 10 teams do, although now that we're in the Big 10 there will be much more familiarity as we'll play every season. But for now, the Huskers have the edge.
Best case scenario: Undefeated season with a conference and national title as well.
Okay, now that the laughter has subsided, I think the best case scenario for 2012 is a 10-2 regular season. I see Nebraska more than likely losing to Michigan and Ohio State. I think that Nebraska loses due to how Pelini plays his defensive scheme not because I think the Huskers aren't talented enough to compete or win.
Worst case, and this could get real ugly real fast, Nebraska loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and tanks to 6-6.
I'll sort of split the difference and say 9-3 in the regular season with losses to MU, OSU and some unranked team at home.
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